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    πŸ”΄ What the Fed Rate Cut Means & How to Play It (w/Tony Greer) | Stock Trade Ideas
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    πŸ”΄ What the Fed Rate Cut Means & How to Play It (w/Tony Greer) | Stock Trade Ideas

    August 22, 2019


    Welcome to trade ideas I’m Jake Merle sitting down with Tony Greer Editor of the morning navigator Tony great to have you back on the show for having me man So we just saw the first rate cut in over a decade Powell. Just got done giving a speech and Personally, this is the first rate cut. I’ve seen. Yeah, I know I’m a student of the markets Just getting into the markets and I want to get your thoughts. Is this a good thing a bad thing? What’s going on? Yeah We should I guess we should set it up with some history since you’re student of the market right last time the Fed cut rates We were addressing The housing crisis, right? So we started off with Fed Funds at five and a quarter and wound up lowering that them to zero Over the course of I think just over a year and during that time the market got shellacked Right because the stock market was then can falling into the mortgage crisis. We were dealing with Excuse me. We’re dealing with Bear Stearns. We were dealing with Lehman Brothers going bankrupt the whole thing We had a much different economic background as well. You know, we had higher oil prices. We had oil prices up in 95 So we had higher interest rates at around four percent in the ten year. So things were much different, right? We were we were addressing then what was coming out of a crisis right now. We’re not coming out of any crisis, right? What seems It seems like a sort of smartly prudent rate cut to me believe it or not And this is a little bit of a change of opinion for me, right? I originally thought that Powell was 100% beholden to Trump for this rate cut, right? I mean he literally seemed optically like he was just Caving to the president pointing around the world saying being a complete baby the way he knows to be everybody else gets lower rates Why we have such high interest rates President Obama got zero interest rates for his whole ten-year Why do I have to have 3% interest rates, you know? So he conflates these stories out of nothing and starts putting pressure on the Fed Chairman and that’s when you know We saw even more of a dovish pivot but we saw that goal the dovish pivot go around the world and it was really in a reaction to a collapse in the Manufacturing sector, which was really evident like you can see them right go right around the world for Europe to China, you know We saw PMI stick down from either the mid 50s to high 50s To the low 50s and then some into the 40s now as you know that you know p.m Eyes, we judge economic expansion and contraction as being either north of south of 50 So we’ve seen Europe already go into economic contraction due to the trade wars right at this point We’ve seen the market falter right when we have fears of trade wars tipping Equity earnings over and having a negative effect on the economy. So what do we have every time we see that? The u.s. Gov to the rescue, right? Like we saw Steve minuchin back in December The government comes to the rescue says there’s going to be plenty of liquidity at all the banks and the market was manages to recover so the mat market gets back on its own feet and We go into earnings season and earnings start coming out positively and then the SP can continue to run from there So while it seems completely absurd that we are cutting rates with the stock market at an all-time high and with unemployment at 3.7 percent and with PMI, even at 51.7 indicating expansion and no sign of inflation. It does seem like preemptively a smart idea considering the ECB just turned full dove right after in response to their PMI is coming off if There’s no pivot by the Fed then we wind up with a you know widen the interest rate differential with us over a several other countries and probably a strengthening dollar right and in a really Super strong dollar is gonna hurt our exporters something that the president doesn’t want to me we can’t be the outstanding hawk on the planet right now because it would just Topple too much within the system which seems to be going along with just fine right now one of the things that’s interesting that Powell Said was that they’re not gonna change They’re not gonna cut the balance sheet down any more from here right to me that that’s directly addressing the fact That’s that’s for Trump. Right? That’s to say that okay Look, we’re gonna leave the balance sheet right where it is So that it doesn’t mess with the stock market the 25 basis point cut seems like it’s rational in response to p.m Eyes around the world coming down and US PMI coming back. So if we Fall below 50 and start seeing drag on economic data. They will look smart and have said, okay we’re a little bit ahead of this and As you would have expected He left the door open for another rate cut And the reason that he has to do that in my opinion There’s no way that the Fed can almost never anymore signal that they’re done for good cutting rates because then their risk is They say that they’re done cutting rates the economics of the u.s. Stay sideways too firm and the stock market backs off Now, what do you think? They’re gonna have to do if the stock market backs off? They’re gonna have to cut rates Are they gonna have to go there do something? So to me, it makes sense for them to say yeah that you know We will address as time goes by we’ll make it data dependent, but they definitely didn’t rule out another rate cut So it seems to me now as the markets go It seems like the equity market is probably gonna go by business as usual, right? I mean there’s a little bit of a dip today in response to It’s probably sell the fact type of response where we were expecting a quarter of a point We got a quarter of a point. Nobody knows really what’s gonna happen next So let’s probably take profits on the stocks that we’ve bought in the last three to six weeks at least right? So that move doesn’t scare me And nor it is it I’m not gonna be one of those guys that’s out there saying, okay Here comes the big tumble right rather I would be looking to posture myself to buy a dip in this environment if we get an SMP pullback – it’s moving averages I would certainly take a chance and look for the stocks that I want to get long and buy them Will that be the 50-day moving average 200-day? Yeah somewhere in there depending on how fast it gets there right rate of change is everything so if we fall down there and the next You know two sessions. I might be a little hesitant if it takes us two weeks To sort of back and fill into that area then I think it’s a good idea to you know Sort of do some shopping and get a little bit longer the stocks that you want to buy or put a new length on In stocks that you’ve been looking at and and have you had on your radar So I think that’s the way that I’m gonna play it. I’ve still got a fairly outsized bond short position on for me And I’m trafficking right now in IEF. That’s the seven to 10-year Treasury ETF My premise for the bond short was that interest rates had fallen too far? given the strength of the economy Right all of a sudden it seemed to me like the Fed was on hold and then they said okay we’re gonna respond to changes in market and we saw some economic weakness abroad and Bonds just went on a run and absolutely, you know knocked interest rates much lower across the curve But we’re still sort of being sensitive and I think that the Fed is also being sensitive to that curve Right because the big alarm that everybody watches is the three-month ten-year spread Three-month ten-year spread touched down at zero in March of this year When that spread touches zero agos inverted a recession has followed more often than not right So I think the Fed is saying, you know, we’re seeing numbers come off abroad. We’ve got this three months ten months three month ten-year spread as a little bit of an alarm going off in the office saying there’s usually Recession that follows this and so maybe they’re being prudent and following along with that narrative in their rate cut So the bond market to me This is going to be another test I mean since I’m in the 10-year part of the curve, I’m gonna talk about that But to me, this is gonna be the ultimate test of 2% in the 10-year I’ve been calling it the Battle of two percent right rates came from a high of about three and a quarter or so Came tanking down to 2% in the 10-year and so far we’ve been sideways, right? So I’m looking for more and more data in the US to sort of hold steady or Maybe even improve and to catch the bond market which has gotten overly overly optimistic and bullish off Sides to a point where the bond market has to sell-off and 10-year yields have to trade up higher So this isn’t a generational trade, right? This is just a feeling that the bond market is overbought Sentiment is overly bullish Everybody is positioned long And so let’s take a chance at fading that and seeing if the US economy stays sideways and we have a chance at rates Retracing to where they came from. So that’s basically the way I’m playing it It feels like stocks can probably hold the dip and go on rallying business as usual, right the Fang complex is still Driving the markets and you know performing fairly well So would that be a short-term trade or you bullish on the markets in general for more of a longer-term picture as well? Yeah, I mean You know my timeframes Jake are usually somewhere from you know Trading timeframes or a week to two months and investment timeframes are sort of three months to a year Maybe a little bit beyond kind of thing You know if you get lucky and something really continues to perform but for a bond trade This is something that’s very tactical right where I am, right? I You know yields fell to 2% I put the trade on at this level and Sort of when they break if bonds rally and break through 2% That’s where I get out So I’m not risking a large amount of money at all I just kind of waited for them to get to this level I sold Treasuries via the ETF and I’m gonna see what happens now, but Most importantly. Like I said, I think that the equity market can probably sustain this I feel like no matter What if there is another steep pullback in equities that we’re gonna hear from Steve minuchin again? I mean, they’re not gonna change the game plan at the White House or at the Treasury, you know The goal is the stock market to continue up into the right and it seems like President Trump continues to get his way So that’s my wrap-up. I mean as long as I Originally thought it was really Trump induced rate cut and now I feel like it might be just the prudent thing to do for markets and The thing about the balance sheet to me that’s saying that they don’t want to do anything. That’s gonna Cause anything to raise rates in any way? Which the balance sheet tapering could do and I think that’s sort of another throw in for Trump so that he can know that they’re not going to tamper with the balance sheet And so that’s where we are now I think it might be business as usual for stocks and I’m gonna keep fighting this bond short for as long as I can so we just saw Powell speak and actually the Dow fell about 400 points during his press conference as he was talking about This may be a one and done type of a rate cut and during a mid cycle But let’s say the data does stabilize and we don’t get more rate cuts Is it back to you know bad is good good is bad. How do you see it playing out then? It goes back to listening to what Trump wants quite honestly if you ask me I mean, I think it’s I think that the sort of bounce off of the lows You know when there was some iteration of Powell saying that we may be being a one-and-done rate cut situation I think that may have been coincident sold type of thing I’m really all about where the market closes on the day. And I think that once all is said and done today It will look just like a sell the fact sell-off in stocks where it’s nothing fatal But it proves to be a reason for stocks to pull back off the all-time highs, right? It’s not like we’re having a pullback from mid. It’s not like we’re plunging to lower levels We are simply having a pullback from the all-time high so You know in as much as the president wants to keep that going Say that it that the situation stabilizes the economy stabilizes and there’s no rate move in either direction If central banks around the world continue on their dovish path and lowering interest rates, you will hear from the president Pressuring the Fed right? And we’ve also got to see what happens with trade wars, right? Because the tariff war does not look like it’s gonna end anytime soon We just spent about a half of a year in a positive feedback loop in the stock market where the stock market rallied every time there was a sniff of talks about Trade tariffs and coming to any kind of a you know negotiation situation That turned out to be completely false, right? Like there are no there is no imminent solution to the rate talk. So in as much as this is something that continues on It continues to put pressure on European and perhaps the Chinese economy They continue to lower rates in response It would not be outrageous to watch the Federal Reserve have to pivot back dovish again and say you know what? We don’t want to be the outlier here because that’s what it’s become. You know, that’s what it’s become There’s no longer a the US economy is fine we don’t need to change rates right in the FOMC statement Powell actually mentioned things like the brexit and The debt ceiling as reasons for concern and that’s when I want to you know Grab the television screen and go are you kidding me? You know, that kind of thing is that rages to me? So we’re not managing our own economy with our own interest rates or our own currency within our own borders So it seemed like we should be most attentive to what’s going on here That’s not the case anymore so that’s why you’ve got to watch and see what’s going on around the world because it seems like the Powers that be or the central banks have done a pretty masterful job at managing Coordinated currency destruction, right? We’re all lowering rates around the world at the same time and it’s everybody in the boat so the dollar has been sort of the stock absorber, that’s right in the middle and sort of does it really rally meanwhile this and Existential battle going on on fin 2 it every day about whether the dollar remains a reserve currency or not You know, so to me the central banks are making it pretty clear that it’s gonna stay exactly where it is Especially if you have you know countries like Japan pinning rates to zero, etc, etc So that’s my view from here Jake And so there is a weak global growth. We’ve seen in Europe if you across the globe Are you worried about a recession here in the United States? Yeah only because I don’t want to blow off the bond market, right? That’s that’s my thing. I don’t know. I will never know. I am NOT capable of predicting All I can do is read the signals and look at history and decide if I want to trade on them, rhyming or not Right, so I’m really I don’t look out my window and feel a recession or I don’t see one, you know It’s still tough to get a steak reservation in New York City on a Tuesday night So maybe this isn’t a good place to look for a recession, etc But I don’t really see us slipping into one The way corporate earnings have been the way you know, it feels like the economy is hanging in there It feels like the technology side of the economy is really booming And now the transport side of the economy is starting to boom again while other sides of the economy are slowing down As long as the consumer remains strong which we’ve been and we’ve got exceedingly high consumer confidence across the board I don’t see it yet. I don’t see it yet I’m not gonna say that it’s not gonna happen and my eyes are wide open and I’m ready to trade it But I don’t see evidence of it yet I really don’t so we have to watch the spread and see if the bond market stays where it is with the three-month ten Ten-year spread either flat or inverted and to see if that’s proven the same as the last two times whereas after 2000 and 2007 where a nominal tea GDP took a tumble right after that But it doesn’t seem like we’re set up for the same situation because we don’t have two crises to put us out of anymore. So Unless there’s one that I’m not catching yet. All right, Cody. Thanks for breaking it down for us We’ll see how it plays out in months to come. Thanks so much for joining us. You’re welcome Jake. That was great you You

    10 SCARY Fishing Videos Caught On Camera
    Articles, Blog

    10 SCARY Fishing Videos Caught On Camera

    August 21, 2019


    On this channel we often explore the weird
    creepy things that go bump in the night. But what about 100% real scary encounters caught on camera in the middle of a nice sunny day of fishing? There were actually so many scary fishing
    moments that I decided to do 10. So, here are the Top 10 Scary Fishing Videos Caught on Camera. Seafood
    Now you might be wondering if this is supposed to be a Top 10 list of scary fishing videos,
    then why is the first video about divers. Well these two men, who are diving off the
    coast of Central California, aren’t fishing. But something in the water is. The two men come just a little too close to being an accidental lunch for a couple of humpback whales chasing a school of fish. It’s Not a Petting Zoo
    When you’re out fishing and a group of sharks starts swarming around your boat. The first rule is- DON’T TRY TO PET THE SHARK. Don’t pet the shark. It’s not a puppy. Got Your Nose
    In this fishing video, a man is sticking his head underwater and yanking fish out of the mud bed with his bare hands. But something goes wrong. Now there’s some debate on whether this video is real, or whether the man actually just put the living snake on his nose himself. I say that if he let an actual water snake
    bite onto his nose that hard while his buddy yanked and pulled on it… then he wins. That’s real enough for me. We can even see the snake swim away at the end, so there’s no doubt it’s a real. It’s Not A Petting Zoo Part 2
    Because of Youtube’s new stricter content rules, I have to say before this video. This woman was NOT seriously hurt in any way. So, when you’re out fishing and a group of
    sharks start swarming around your boat. The second rule is – don’t hand-feed the sharks. Luckily, Melissa Browning only received a
    bad cut on her finger from this scary encounter with a nurse shark. And she seems to have learned her lesson. By the way, I just wanted to point out that
    in this video there’s a guy who might be the worst man EVER to have around in a crisis
    situation. And that’s THIS guy. This guy not only doesn’t drop his drink to
    help. But he doesn’t even spill a drop as he just
    sits there watching that poor woman flail around with sharks. Don’t Go In The Water
    This is a very quick and simple lesson as to why you don’t want to fish or go into the
    water in some areas of the Amazon. This is what a piranha feeding frenzy looks
    like. Piranha will eat other fish, they’ll eat red
    meat, and they’ll even eat each other. Piranha attacks on humans are rare, but do
    occur. The fish usually attack the hands or feet
    and a large piranha can actually bite off a finger or toe off with their sharp powerful
    teeth. Tag, You’re It
    Now this guy isn’t technically fishing, but again, something else in the water is. And in yet another shark lesson, we learn
    don’t ever chase a giant shark on your jet ski. The shark took a little nibble out of the
    jet ski, but the lucky rider was unharmed, and hopefully learned a lesson. If you chase a giant shark, it will chase
    you back. Unintentional Aggression
    Despite what you might see in movies, the anaconda snakes of South America will not usually attack a human being, unless they feel threatened. But sometimes that threat isn’t intentional. This fisherman is just taking his boat along
    the shore. Then there’s the polar opposite like these
    guys who are out fishing and decide to beat on brush in an area where they think a giant Anaconda is hiding. Apparently once the giant angry serpent decides to come out to meet them, their bravery seems to fade. The Worst Joke Ever
    Somewhere in China, a bunch of men are doing some ice-fishing on a frozen pond. But things soon go VERY wrong. I’m not sure what’s more disturbing in this
    video. The men falling through the ice into freezing water while they desperately cling to the edge to try to avoid death… or the reaction
    of the other fishermen, who just seem to giddily scream and laugh at them while they struggle for their lives. Revenge From The Sea
    Kevin Faver and Brad Deckard are fishing off the coast of Florida. While Kevin is trying to reel in his catch,
    they get an unexpected visitor. Now if you’re wondering why two very experienced fishermen are so afraid of a fish. This is a 40 pound Giant Barracuda, a species known for its powerful jaws, aggressive behavior and razor sharp teeth. And even if you get past all that, Barracuda
    can’t even be eaten because they are usually poisonous. It’s just all bad. Otter Rescue
    Now this next story isn’t exactly frightening to humans, but involves a very justifiably
    terrified otter. Dusty Harpole was out fishing in Alaska’s
    Tutka Bay when he came upon two Killer Whales swimming together. For some reason they seemed to be circling the area. He soon discovered what was going on. The two Killer Whales were stalking a mother Sea Otter and her pup. Unfortunately the hungry whales had already gotten her pup. Now the mama Otter was desperately trying to escape as the whales hunted her too. The quick-thinking Otter swims straight for
    Dusty’s boat and hops onboard to hide. The Killer whales swim right by, unaware that the mama Otter has made her escape to the boat above. Dusty cranks up his engine and speeds the mama Otter away to safety. After she was safe, in a truly heartbreaking piece of video, the mother Otter begins crying out for her lost pup who will never return.

    FREESTYLE on a FIBONACCI πŸ“ˆπŸ”₯ Cryptocurrency News ledger wallet bitstamp cryptonation digibyte DGB
    Articles, Blog

    FREESTYLE on a FIBONACCI πŸ“ˆπŸ”₯ Cryptocurrency News ledger wallet bitstamp cryptonation digibyte DGB

    August 21, 2019


    THE BOSS OF BITCOIN! This is the boat and I got the number one website for you to cash in and cash out in cash money for Bitcoin It’s called bit quick dot Co There’s a link in the description and it’s in the number one comment on this video you go to their website You’re gonna see this right here You click on buy And you tell them how much money you want to spend and it will automatically convert that amount in a Bitcoin Once you have that amount ready you let them know how you want to pay for it You can either do a cash deposit or money transfer through a major bank right here in the USA You pick what bank you want? And it’s quite convenient to my house a big thing to note here is you only have three hours to get that cash money into The bank account that they send you once you deposit the money into their account they send you the Bitcoin Notice that. There is a two percent fee this morning when I send $500. They charged me ten Dollars to send it, but that’s not bad at all in crypto land so you click on next right there after it’s confirmed And they’ll send you an email And notice this is cash only you guys don’t go online and try to transfer it into a person’s account because it won’t work you Need to go into a bank with cash money in the email that they send you they’ll put their name They’ll put a 12 digit account number. They’ll put that holder state That’s all you need and they will also confirm your Bitcoin address where the money will be sent Biggest thing to note here is that you will need to receive the upload link And send them the receipt of the transfer This is what that looks like all you do is you take a picture of? The deposit receipt after you send it you type in that little no refunds or a big quick on Bitcoin boom upload it into that email right there using that link and Congratulations, baby. You are now a part of the money team. This is the boat with another breakthrough website for you guys I hope it helps, and I hope you will be profitable and prosperous in the market. Let’s go like a boss Live from the USA helping you get paid every day This is the boasts of Bitcoin the Cristo of crypto is your boy BK And if y’all like me you must not like money Today is October 1st Happy October. Everybody. Happy Sunday. Hopefully you got a couple of trades. We did last week. If so you should be profitable As a result if this is your first time tuning in congratulations, baby. You are now rocking with the best My name is B keg my friends know me as a crypto traitor And I am the boss of these charts as you will soon find out every day I’m able to grace this microphone with my voices another day somebody can profit as a result and today is no exception So with that being said guys every video, I give out a question of the day to which You know I open it up to the community and say hey guys You know we doing this hundred day challenge. I buy you know 0.01 Bitcoin, I’ll put it on the market either buy or sell for a hundred days and What coin should we pick you know what’s looking good? What do you think? What do you think I say if I pick you and this is open today? This is the question of the day? What coin should we buy or sell for our portfolio? You can actually track us live with the link in the description and in the number one comment on this video So as this after every video if I pick your coin, then you win You know some cash money from me as a token of my appreciation on behalf of our community We make money we trade Bitcoin back and forth with all the different cults and we profit We are up right now on our portfolio. We have already beat the market inside of I think eighteen or twenty days twenty trades So the coin that was selected that I’ll actually be showing you the Fibonacci process with is Well actually let’s go To the source This is our group the number one Bitcoin group in the world remember I tell you guys the doors are always open come on in if you haven’t joined yet It is no joke the number one Bitcoin group in the world And the post that I am referencing is this one right here This is a girl that’s been in our group for a while Diana Rodriguez She says my post today is to thank Brendan Kelly the boasts of the charts Who thanks to him? I’ve learned how to search the Fibonacci By when the green is above the orange not by when it’s over pumped and gone up 40% remember I say that don’t buy to green don’t sell the red and basically not to take every trading alert as Someone that knows everything without first looking at the boss method. That’s a BK chart. That’s pretty cool Just to give you a little example this morning I received an alert that digi bite was a good buy had been watching it since the 21st But hadn’t bought it then this morning. I thought this is it less than 24 hours I made 20 percent profit BAM, and I’m still learning I haven’t invest a lot i’ve only invested 0.015 Bitcoin But I didn’t think I would be so successful in just a short period of time I’m so happy Sorry for the long post wanted to share my experience This is image to me surf from the Fibonacci and digi bite, right Thank you for being an awesome teacher, so you know Here it is. You know live and direct like this was just posted today And I saw it and I was like wow that’s pretty amazing Thank you for sharing that to Diana. It’s really inspirational. It actually shows. You know how? The Fibonacci can be used to correlate all of this information and let you know When lightning is getting ready to strike right remember? I tell you that the biggest thing you have to wait for is that? Dovetail on the 231 that line has to go flat the Green has to come Above the orange and once that orange cracks through that 231 we are making some real deal money She was a little she jumped the gun you know, but she didn’t jump it before you know the seven crosses 77 So that’s rule number one green above orange by and now, I guarantee you. She’s in a better position You know that most of the market will be with regards to this trade So I say all that to say this remember guys It doesn’t matter if you start with a hundred dollars Or if you start with a hundred thousand dollars all that matters is every penny of profit You’re able to get as a result and I guarantee diana with those twenty percent gains You know trade the trade like that you will be well above Where you’re at right now in the near future, so thank you for the pick today after I checked the chart I was like she’s right this thing is ready to make some real deal money so without further ado Diana You are our winner of the day message me on Facebook which a Bitcoin wallet I’m gonna send you a couple bucks BTC as a token of my appreciation Thank you for your contribution to the community, and thank you for helping the rest of us to make money as well So here we go guys. This is digi byte, and we’re looking on a three hundred and forty three minute chart and So now what we see is Diana was right this thing has come together Quite nicely and first of all first thing we look for is is the green? Above the orange I can cut this red off You know just to clear things up a little bit, and we see that yes Yes, yes, it’s well above the horns If you would have bought you know when that green went above the orange You’d be up about eight percent right now I think Diana said she bought right here somewhere um and timed it up almost perfectly to be up twenty percent so that’s pretty cool So what does that mean for the rest of us? That means first of all we’re gonna buy this coin today, so our strike price is four hundred and twelve so toasties That’s what I’m gonna put in our portfolio d g/b at four one two set and we’re gonna buy 0.01 Bitcoin of Digi Bible right now before we get into you know that actual trade I wanted to show you guys how to freestyle on a Fibonacci write first of all if you don’t know what a Fibonacci is it’s more or less a mathematical relationship to describe The correlation of Nature right As humans that breathe oxygen and carbon you know made with carbon. We are from the earth, right We absorb energy from the Sun just like plants Do you know if you go too long without eating any plants more than likely it won’t be on this earth much longer So we’re plant-based entities that absorb energy from the Sun and as a result the Fibonacci describes a mathematical sequence of Our alignment right not only with each other, but also with different events so you know, that’s the simple version of it But it carries out through everything that happens naturally on this earth Some of you guys may have seen a picture of like a girl dipping her hair down in The water and spiking it back in the the spiral that the water goes in is actually the fibonacci spiral Um another thing is if you look on the underside of an acorn right that little spiral that The individual pieces of that acorn go around is the Fibonacci curve Curved spirals same thing its semantics. Don’t worry about it and also The sunflower seat if you look at does Google sunflower Flower just sunflower picture right and if you look at the arrangement of the seeds, it’s kind of like that endless spiral out flower of life you know same spiral That’s the fibonacci one plus two equals three plus five equals eight You know a natural sequence of numbers to describe the most likely number to happen based on this inherent set of rules We can use this Correlation to Understand the chart as well and in order to do that since we’re inside of like a month here I’m gonna turn back on our 21 And we’re gonna start the freestyle on this Fibonacci to show you guys exactly. How it works out So let’s zoom in a little bit And I highlighted these two areas ahead of time because there are two very very prominent areas on this chart Right when we saw Laura’s chart Diana I think Diana start it was all the way, I want messy memo, I’m sorry Diana when we saw Diana’s chart it was drawn all the way out you know a few months back Before did you buy it broke down, but now that we’re down pretty close You know we can zoom in to this intersection in this intersection and use those two points as our fibonacci Right so we go from right down to breakout Right and what do we want to do? Since this is like the natural extension this orange line that you see down down there. That’s moving is the natural extension of that Relationship so if this point was one two, then that orange line would be three, right It’s just the next natural logical path or the relationship between these two points right now one thing you should note is if when we double click that Fibonacci and Also, it opens up this little toolbar, but before we even do that Let’s just go to a long way of getting to it I think it’s in this side panel over here, maybe no, it’s not Probably in this one up here the second second box down second little icon click on that click on big Retracement and then click that little star right what that’ll do is that’ll throw it up top So you always have it and after you get like a bunch of these things like side-by-side like this you can order I’m going to put them in or whatever You know it works best for you, so I have like 12 up there that I’ll just use a lot so here We go back to the field so we can see that this thing is saying 1 2 & 3 is gonna be down but we don’t want that we’re saying that we think biggie bike is gonna break out so we double-click it and We click on reverse That’s all you need to do right. Also if you notice my settings are a little bit different, I think one of the default you know Fibonacci’s has 0.5 as you know a Level you don’t need that The only ones you need are two zero two three six three eight two six one eight right the ones I have highlighted are really the only ones you need And as you can see I have the one grayed out because that’s like a hundred percent It doesn’t really help us, and it does also is not a key Fibonacci level Tantas leave that up one six one eight three two seven two Are really the most two that you’ll use more often than not in a four point six one eight is really the highest Level that you’ll be able to extend to on one sequence and as we can see If we do that now our orange line goes above right? So what this says is if this is one? This is two That becomes three Right it’s the next logical step and so the way I use the Fibonacci is it doesn’t matter if we go forward or backwards the? Relationship still stays the same the correlation. That’s my understanding of it, and it works out pretty well right so Just the simple fact that we’re going down right one two We can still get up to three once we break out in fact. That’s the natural Ascension of us you know given this relationship already, so what does that mean? What does that mean for? Where we’re at right now It means that we are well on track to make some money once we get Inside this money zone right and you can see that’s actually where we broke down in the past before right there in the money zone So once we’re able to break through the top of this money zone then We’re more likely to Go up here, then. We are to go back down there. That’s how Fibonacci means It’s really just what is natural inside the chart And what is the most likely thing to happen you should also note that when you do have this nice step pattern Establish that the fibonacci more or less infers where the chart will step down at and Where it will step up at to the different levels right so if you notice This thing Has been living down That first channel for quite some time but as It goes up It will step up in these channels just Like it stepped down in those channels once it gets above that blue line chances are that’s gonna be a nice little run for us and We’ll do something you know That looks like that and pops us up to that orange Before we decided to go down Or go up You also notice that when we do make it up to this orange line Just like we did back there It’s not for very long, but we do get there given the situation in the scenario And this is the only time I look at the candles is that when I want to fine-tune this Fibonacci really understand What’s going on inside of it right otherwise? I don’t need two candles whatsoever But you can see like right here went to the top of that money zone came right back down, right? Here went to the top of that money zone came right back down right right here It was sitting sideways In-between it trying to decide do you want to break out or do you want to break down decided to break down? Tested bounced off that money’s on right there continue to go down Consolidated right over the top of that two three six went down You know bounced off the orange line broke up to the top of the money zone went back down You know I’m saying so it’s literally like the top of the bar and the bottom of the bar that more or less Confirmed this thing the entire time now with us buying a digi bite right there inside that money zone That’s what I tell you guys if we’re gonna buy we want to buy inside that money zone because that is The most likely chance that we have to go back up to the top of that orange line and a beautiful thing about This relationship, this is a strong strong chart is you can see that that orange line? confirms You know the top of our candle On two different notes right there And that’s why I picked this chart because it’s like it’s so clearly defined you cannot make that up. That is not an Accident right so now. What do we do with this information? We’re gonna buy digi bite, and this is what we expect to have happen I Don’t like limiters. I don’t recommend. You know stop losses I just want to do this to give you guys an idea of what kind of profit to expect I’m not saying put a stop loss down here. Don’t you ever do that because there are BOTS and whales that? Intentionally will suppress a market to knock out your stop-loss before they allow the natural market to take it back up to where its chart said it was gonna go so do not waste your Time put me in stop losses Right that’s just my two supposes, but here we go With this guy we’re gonna buy it Right there and Now what is natural to the chart right? What is natural to the chart? We’re buying it Where for one for right around there Sell it up there and What’s natural to the chart is a drop of no more than that? right so that gives us a Risk/reward ratio 3.16 target profit of 38 percent And If it gets down there. It’s broken technically We could take this up to that fifth level, but again that will be on one candle sell them I said do not sell the candles but if a Candle gets down there that more than likely are 7 day moving average has broken that blue line And that’s when technically we would get out, right So we gotta risk the reward of about 3.0 So it’s a solid solid solid pickup, and that’s what I wanted to do it for today’s chart because it’s really really good Right real quick we can go through one more So essentially this is what we look at right here I like to leave these things just as reminders the top of that candle is our sell zone Which is very natural already two one six one eight extension of the Fibonacci and again when that green crosses that orange and that? Orange starts to go up you got you a solid reversal and so shout out again to Diana for finding it for us It really helped everybody to make some money This is a good chart you guys and another reason why it’s so good is even if you look at the inner day What it just got done doing it went all the way up to that top of that money line We’re buying it in the middle After a bounce-back so this thing already has momentum to the upside given the recent pullback and it’s about What is it right now? 8% discount So that’s solid. That’s out so this is a strong pickup for the situation I’m not saying did you buy it as a top twenty point? I’m not saying we’re gonna have it more than a few weeks, but we are gonna have it with the expectation of making 38% on a 3.0 risk/reward ratio, that’s how we do it, right Let’s check one more out. Just just to show you the difference in possibilities this one is going to be Nexus and e.x us to the Bitcoin And I believe somebody Recommended this one in one of our comments the other day So I’m gonna go back to the whoever you are in and throw you a couple bucks as well in Bitcoin so when we look at Nexus we can see let me take that off and We zoom out so now. I’m gonna cut this red off because we’re looking out like more than six weeks So we really don’t need red right now. I can get enough information between a green white and orange and So what’s really intriguing about this chart. I saw is that when you connect? First of all let me show you how this works right here because these are two very very very Important moments in time that I captured right first of all That moment in time When we look at it, let’s do this That’s not that that moment in time right there is very very very critical to the future of Nexus What do we have we have the green is? essentially in quicksand you guys It’s under the orange under the white and then the white started coming down You see that the white came down and so now it’s like the roof was closing in on Nexus It was literally like running out of air underwater But what happened fight or flight and this thing took off? You know like a horse off the tracks So it jumped up lower low lower low bam bam bam and now we’re out of clicks in this was our bye signal right here Is the date that Nexus came green above orange? We should have been in there? We should have bought right, but then it went went up nice nice run Had another little aftershock and came right back down right, but it was hit with the exact same situation Not even you know six weeks later In quicksand need to break out. What do we do it come back again BAM? Hit him upside the head for another three thousand percent Three hundred percent and now it’s back in the exact same situation So this is why I? Wanted to do this chart because you can see that There is a strong correlation between those points, so if we just take a Fibonacci Extension from there, and this is the beauty of it you guys – they’re from low to low, but we know how those two points work And we say okay between that correlation show me something reverse it up. Let me know What’s the next natural point is on this chart? We can see that it gave us a Few things don’t look like you gave us much at first But when you know where to look it’s not hard to know where you’re going as well the most natural Area of that extension is that four point six one eight that was last area of? Consolidation we had before we broke back down Right that’s kind of like the homerun if you get up to the fork one six one eight you just hit a home run, right So in addition to that we cut to candle on we can see that this thing naturally started to fall at The three point two right there right it went up. Broke it a little bit. It came right back down What’s even more intriguing about this Fibonacci is even if you move it to? The intersection of the red and the green green above red and then let’s do this one Green above red check that out now. It’s like fine-tuning a knife You know sharpening a knife look at that now that four point six one eight almost goes exactly Perfect to the moment of time this thing broke out and you can play with it a little bit like you know I’m not I’m not even close in on like you can literally zoom in on these charts to the exact moment in time something happened so I Say all that to say this nexus is also a Very very very strong chart right now Another way to look at the Fibonacci is just what we did on the last chart right you just saw like a short quick Validation you can also do a long-range Validation where we go all the way up that most recent trend and now you can see that this thing basically stepped down the letter Crashdown tried to bounce right there didn’t make it right We’ll put this thing up a little bit to the red and there you go so Now it’s bowing something that didn’t make it right there But it’s coming in what’s called a? Ascending wedge right some people say. This is a bearish formation I Tend to think it can go both ways I think this is a situation where Nexus becomes very intriguing because not only does it have two other Confirmations of bouncing off this, but we just had a huge YouTube run, right So now this white line is coming flat if Nexus is able to get a quick break out here that will be enough to Continue in the pattern that we already formed right so How do we tell if it rebounds we can tell if it rebounds just based off? Let’s see This is our. This is our base trend line right here. Let’s cut off the red This is our base, turn line so as long as it does not as Long as the green Does not break that line right? this big big big Color it white if you want This big big white line as long as our 7 day moving average is above that line the Nexus has a much better chance of Continuing to go up than it does of going down right nothing’s guaranteed But it just basically shows you the different levels to which it would happen So say if we were gonna buy an Isis, this is what we would expect the first Area of breakdown would be anywhere below that orange line right? That’s like the ground floor. Let’s check this out What’s natural the nexus is? a huge huge run at least two I Would say right about there Right in between yeah right there at the bottom of that seven-day So we would be able to look at making a solid a solid 41% right there at the top of that 231 just on our first little spike here With the possibility of going all the way up To that one six one eight On our next huge breakout run Which will happen eventually it’s not a matter of if but when and this is a lot of times How I project you know future points as I say okay, if that’s our base rate. You know line then by This point over here We should reach that money zone that a 1.618 extension right because then you can like start the BACtrack horizontal lines You know to pinpoint different areas of events most likely to happen as long as you stay on track You’re gonna be fine all I’m doing it is if you look at my charts on trading view all they do is pinpoint different intersections of energy positive energy negative energy right you got both of them, so normally the money zone is Positive energy especially when it’s at the top of money zone because that’s like That’s like fight or flight remember what I said over on this side. There you go. You know I’m saying you’ve got a breakout or you go break down and most coins break out During this when this intersection happens right so that’s like the top right there But then also its entry into is if once you start to understand that and you start to see like Where these intersections happen at that distance in itself is actually? The Fibonacci line going that way You know I’m saying like this is 1 this is 3 this is 8 the next one would be 13 You know so so you start to get in some weird stuff with the correlations But that is the Fibonacci everybody it’s not perfect. I’m not saying that it’s perfect, but a lot of people ask me How do I know when certain events are gonna happen? This is how this is why because I just chart the energy of the intersections I extend them out to certain points I go back and chart another path of energy so say you know something like that You know was another path. That’s just arbitrary, but okay. Well. Let’s just make it real something like Break down That’s actually a path right there right so say we wanted to chart that one And throw it against it you know if that path was relevant in that chart, then that would give us Different events based on the intersection of those two lines within the same Fibonacci curve right And this actually becomes in if this path strays stays true then this Becomes the area of growth that Nexus Could have to where does something like this And this is just you know the example at this point something like that down and then up To that four six on it, but it’s all the natural extension of the same Relationship and at the end of the day, that’s all Fibonacci can do for you is show you how what you see right now? extends out as long as The future stays a part of the natural cycle that is on There you go guys. That’s it. That’s how you sharp like a boss Oh It’s a little bit longer than I wanted to spend talking about it, but I think it I think Hopefully it was good to go over to charts You can kind of see how you the Fibonacci is not set it’s not it’s not like Regimented to where you have to use it like this you have to go to the top of a candle to the bottom candle no It’s open to interpretation and the more you develop your own charting style the more you will understand How it fits the patterns that you begin to see naturally right? Everybody’s eye is different and so these charts when I draw a chart It’s the way my I see my brain sees it right when you draw a chart. You can see it completely differently I guarantee you it’s people out there right now saying oh my god He could have did this this and this and came up with a different relationship, and then drew this line in this line You know and saw a saw completely different story, right? But that’s the beauty of the Fibonacci as it doesn’t really matter. What story you draw It just shows you how that story will compete Continue naturally in the future Right so there. You go guys. Hopefully that was beneficial for you I’ll you know from time to time again. I’m gonna be doing like little intro how-to videos I thought this would be helpful for the community just to see like two different real-world examples digi buddy Nexus But you should know that only one of these coins is a part of our dream team right I’ll tell you after and every call I got I got to list I got the profit package and I got the dream King and That will take us into our next thing. This is your first time tuning in you do have a treat You are officially a part of history you know I’m saying this is the bus a Bitcoin and I want to show you the community We got online in the packages we got for you if you in the chat right now shout me out Shouts of people out let me know what country you are in so we could do our cloak global check-in in a second but for now We’re gonna go through these little options right here first thing you go to boss of Bitcoin You go see three options for you the first one is a profit package This is the movers the Shakers and the moneymakers. This is a hand selected list you guys I spent about two months about $20,000 in the market trying to figure out what the best coins were for you to get $25. It’s yours. This list is up no joke about 1,400 percent in the past two weeks using the boss method right next one We got is the dream team, and this is what I like This is this is that this the Golden Goose right now This list is the next generation tokens a lot of them are only one or two dollars When I make this list you could get the entire list with a $20 bill so what I’ve said is if you got a dollar And you got a dream then you got coin on this list and you can be profitable and as I told you earlier only One of those charts we saw today It’s good enough to make it on this list so you get it you get this package and you’ll understand Why and your opportunity to profit from it as a result last thing we got is the one-on-one meeting with the boss you click that last little icon right there pay the $25 that will open up my personal calendar say you wanted to do something Friday Morning, you know I’m saying after The Ellen Show click that button BAM We now got some face time baby, and this is my favorite part of the day. You know this is when I tell you what? Hold on hold on next time. Thank you. Hey, China They trying to cut the lights out, but I said no I said I said let there be light Take this stop word man every every day is an adventure trying to make this software work But I actually had a call this morning. Which was very inspirational would a you know I feel like he’s my he’s a you know like a like a legend The way that he was able to shed light, but yesterday was about three hours With an individual very influential individual in the digital space and I look forward to creating monumental Monumental things with him and I it’s really amazing just the people that you’re able to talk to the lives You’re able to touch, right? Because you know as I say all the time we live in a world where it’s very very very unfortunate But we in the world we’re all too often right This little piece of paper is all that matter You know our whole world is run by how many of these little pieces of paper we can Scab it together So my goal is to give out as many of these pieces of paper as Possible to anyone willing to manifest it through the method that I’ve developed It’s a patented method It’s very very very accurate very efficient, and it works, and it will bring a lot of these pieces of paper to you But in doing so you must then manifest more positivity as a result I believe society is sick Society is is sick and tired of being sick and tired and that’s why people are not happy, right people are inundated with Depressing and this Detrimental you know content on every digital platform you turn on you know any major media outlet You will hear the talking heads on TV with the voices in their ear and the words behind the screen telling them exactly what to? Say those talking heads will find 20 different ways to divide me from you, but not one way to bring us together Turn on any TV on Sunday look on Facebook on Sunday All you see is is people You know standing around in a circle some guys kneeling down some guys not and all of a sudden. That’s it That’s a point of controversy Let me tell you something it’s a thousand ways to keep people distracted from what’s important? But I found one way to bring longevity to the solution empower yourself use this method to Bypass all of that right more money. We have the happy. We are the happy. We are more. We can actually live right That’s what this method allows you to do, so if you like that By all means hit that thumbs up button baby is more to come Motor come with that being said let’s jump in the chat right now Right I like to end on a positive note so we go to our global check-in you can see you know the results from The dream team right there if you want them Pam So let’s go to our chat. Let’s see who we got rocking out with the boats right now We got Canada, Canada two times back to back off top the market Ranger one of our minds holding the chat down from town bolts walking on the west coast Romania Jersey big ups from South South Africa Yasin but down in South Africa. What’s going on baby appreciate the love, Seattle? USA you saw Orlando Santa Cruz see eggs Surfing on the west coast jerk money is in the building big Brian holding it down cross the ocean d g/b yes, we bought that one today point one point o 0.10.0 one Bitcoin, we just bought D. G B today, I didn’t go through the process of actually buying it I’ve done it enough, but yes. We are buying digi body to date BAM Let’s make some money right been asking for the Fed demo explanation bam. Thank you, man. Thank you ten dollars. I take it Norway’s UK is in the building Finland is in the building Paris France duskie turn money London Canada Romanian Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium Turn money is like big strong strong So there you go guys That’s our that’s our community in a nutshell man. This is what we got. That’s what we do we come together We empower each other we prosper together, and we practice together right each one reach one we print each one You know I’m saying Come as you are but leave, but every chance that’s my goal That is my goal, and we are creating a coalition of empowered people as people that made money this week just by watching this channel As people that don’t make money tomorrow just by watching this channel It’s people that’s gonna make money a year from now just by watching this channel. I’m not stopping This method will not stop it beats the market ten to one So with that being said It’s that time of the day signing out this the boats your boy BK no matter Where you say from Brazil to the bank telephoning I gay all the way back out through jerk Mun man Good night. Good morning and good date. Thank you so much for taking the time to watch this video I certainly do appreciate it make sure you subscribe share this video do that for me if you appreciate mine till we meet again Stay cryptic y’all B’s

    πŸ”΄ Defensive Investing & the History of Recession (w/ Victor Sperandeo) | Real Vision Classics
    Articles, Blog

    πŸ”΄ Defensive Investing & the History of Recession (w/ Victor Sperandeo) | Real Vision Classics

    August 19, 2019


    Victor Thanks, it’s great to sit down to people that are you know dallas-based Maybe I’ll even start just by saying that there are a lot of people that have been on real vision lately that are talking purely about the markets in kind of a broad sense full market bear market Credit bubble not credit bubble. Whereas maybe you have some kind of more nuanced views, but if we take a step back, Maybe somebody watching the interview which would say that we could possibly be from different investing generations but I think from what I know about you, we might look at markets the same way so Here, you know maybe 10 years or so into a, you know monetary experiment Just generally what do you think about markets now? And and and where we are maybe in the market cycle the economic cycle, etc. Okay. Well these two integrated parts To everything you do in Wall Street, and that’s the fundamental and the technical simple There’s also the psychological and the emotional side of it, but set up just for the point of your question We’re in a bear market it’s a hundred percent Now why do I say that perhaps a background to people listening would be important because it’s a it’s a very Solid statement so I want to give you the background Now I’ve been I started in Wall Street in 66 and I started trading in 68 Now I probably read three plus thousand books one of the books Was a book by by a fella named William Gordon Who was the CEO of indicator digests now? That’s before your time? They were a major force in The technical end of the business in the 60s and they took the ten major Indicators at the time though. They had a lot theory things that nobody even knows what that means so they and they trace that back to 1910 different indicators and then many permutations of those indicators so the one that came in first was the simplicity of using a 200-day moving average trading days and When the price? Whether you use SP the Dow was popular at the time closes below that and the moving average is Sloping downwards. It’s night and day if it’s sloping out upwards doesn’t count Sloping down which you sell and then you would buy in the reverse that concept from from 1900 to 1966 book came out sixty-eight yielded you eighteen and a half percent compounded I Took it forward. We have a trading staff research firm and We we have three PhD math professors etc. And we ran it forward and they were similar now the second the second best Technical indicator was Dow Theory came in at 18% again similar results Compounded at eighteen now The one thing that I did that that Bill Gordon didn’t do was that using real money as such? When you sold you put the money in one-year bills He didn’t add that dimension. So mine. Perhaps was a little less Than the eighteen and a half because I added to it by getting yield when I was in cash So now these two Indicators gave bear market signals one in October the 200-day moving average was the first and then lot later in early December dal theory confirmed so you’re in a bear market and as far as I’m concerned unless Something changes now, they’re not a nothing is infallible. But but I leaned very heavily that these are accurate the other Part would be the fundamentals now. You heard the expression that you know The the market is predicted 14 out of the last recessions that a lot of people use that well, that’s a very naive statement by anybody who uses that particular Phrase, why is because the market doesn’t only predict recessions it predicts Things that can occur that would make the market go down like war it predicts war it predicts Political change for example in 62 and I was young lad. I was a teenager then but I was following the markets and and JFK who’s a very well respected president at the time He attacked The steel companies for raising prices. No different than Trump today on many different aspects He attacked them well in those days it was looked at as socialism and socialism then was not accepted as even a consideration because we were fighting with the Soviet Union cold war so to speak so The market dropped 26% in less than three months But no recession followed The reason was that JFK realized he blundered and he backed off He dropped it. So he didn’t attack the steel companies anymore for raising prices and The markets reversed. So like I say there there are many instances of that over the over the years It doesn’t mean the markets wrong. It means the market predicts many things now when you have the Fed raising rates as Jerome Powell did in September and recently on December 19th. That is a fundamental event everybody knows that’s why everybody follows the Fed that if they’re raising rates markets don’t like this and You usually you know, you’re taking away the punchbowl as the old expression and and basically you You you go into recession every time the Fed does this now? Let me just preface that I think Powell and the other nine members Voted to raise rates the extra quarter even though it was very well discounted Was a major error. This is going to go down in history as one of the worst errors the Fed has ever made including the the 29-32 debacle. So I look at that that as long as they keep on track now They’re already talking down the other cuts Kaplan from from Dallas is already saying well Maybe we should wait til after the second quarter and I mean they’re already backing off But if you change the fundamentals you change the outcomes so if they back off from right now selling QT and the rice the two more increases in interest rates You you have to consider that and that may change the trends of the markets Because the fundamentals are changing but the key is that right now it’s going to be very hard to do that and the reason is the world is Heading into recession Europe, Japan China the virtual world We were the strongest economy in the world And now this psychological switch like turning off light Changed everything. So we are weakening. The data is weakened if you looked at the Richmond Fed And you looked at the Dallas Fed results The economy is already weakening So this was this was because of in my opinion ego and perhaps even some politics Jerome Powell was adamant about what he did and There were many other people besides obviously Trump that didn’t want him to do that that it was the wrong move. So We’re in a bear market bear markets by the way, you go back to 1899 The market once it proclaims a bear market Six months is the average you’re in a recession So what the markets are saying now all things being equal in July? You’re gonna be in a recession in the United States. So from what I know about you you’ve been kind of skeptical maybe of the post global financial crisis monetary policy regime and that Maybe the manipulation of prices interest rates being the most important, you know would eventually have consequences on the other hand. We’re talking now about Powell and the Fed Making a mistake in raising at this point So again, maybe a case that our central bankers our timing cycles incorrectly But how do you square the two? Okay Originally when we had the 208 crash You what the Fed did was sort of natural and no one can critique them although pure The purest would okay But let’s let’s assume that that was the right move but to keep zero interest rates For seven years and to do three qyz, and I believe there was at least one operation twist maybe there was to you that was a again an a huge error now if they were normal and you know you May have heard this you’re a young guy the four-year cycle, right? So you go up three years into an election usually the first year is when you do all the damage because people forget So it would have been natural to raise rates in two thirteen to some degree now even think of it this way into ten when we were in a recovery the Recovery ended in June the recovery began in June of 209 So let’s say in 210. You raised rates fifty basis points a year For seven years, you know one in June one in December small steady You know, you could change your mind If you want to you you’d be at neutral rates, which is what the Fed uses Is there being a talking point these days so they didn’t do that. They didn’t raise rates in 213 They can anything the recovery would have continued whether it was a market recovery or economic recovery speakers because you remember you’re adding now Cuties to this scale qyz, so you got to put that in conjunction if you were doing QE Why not raise rates slowly and maybe in one year race at 25 basis points? And then I’m not trying to you look back and program. What should be done I’m only saying that you can’t all of a sudden Trump wins They raise rates eight times. They raise rate once under Obama to 15 December and Then they raise rates in December of 2 to 16 after Trump won and seven other times so eight times I mean not that two percent means anything it means something psychologically and it means that if you’re you’re on a almost the Heroin addict of interest rate and low interest rates and you do too much you you you pop the psychology and Pease are psychological right? There’s no I Come from what’s called the Austrian School of Economics What they would say is all value is subjective so when people start talking about value and Pease It’s subjective In the in the in the 20 in the 30s Laura lied which was a tobacco company traded at six times dividend Now that’s you can pay that to to Amazon today, there’s a big spread. So what is the difference in that spread? It’s what people think and you know a market is valid and what people think is what it is but the key is it’s Subjective. It’s not objects. Not two and two so the bottom line is is that you were They they did too much and when I can tell you because I was playing this and Everybody knew they were gonna raise rates At least that was the prediction as soon as they raised rates a market collapsed which meant they shouldn’t have done it Because even though people expected it it was the wrong thing to do and this was outlined very well by Stan Druckenmiller And and Kevin wash in The Wall Street Journal Wall Street, Journal had editorials as well But those are two prominent people and there were many other pros that that understood this So it was a very bad move. So he so III hear what you’re saying. I also like Austrian economics and another cornerstone, is that the the manipulation of prices inevitably leads to miss allocation of capital and so if if we’ve been in a decade maybe of the the most abusive or the period where we have most abused the price of money is all of this a big reckoning based on violation of those cornerstone tenants of Austrian economics yeah without a doubt and and what the what the central banks of the world 23 major ones they have abused the the mat the Wizards wand They have taken it to where if you wanted to let’s say measure Austrian school versus Milton Friedman who I loved But he was wrong about The the increasing the money supply the steady rate because politicians don’t do that So this is living proof what’s happened? You know since he died, unfortunately But the key is the Austrian school said no politicians will never do the right thing They will always use whatever power you give them to benefit themselves so The key is they they abuse the wizard’s wand here by Too many qyz, and like I said if you wanted interest rates to be a little normalized During those qyz, they should have raised rates very slowly But shrinking the balance sheet and raising rates, too. Yeah. Sure. Yeah. It’s it’s too much catastrophic. This is catastrophic Okay, so you said something that maybe leads to a good segue we talked about? politicians and their ability to use power abuse power I Think another topic that you’ve written elegantly about and that is of interest to you is how power shifts globally Are going to be an increasingly important factor in various markets, right? What what the most important thing to me is aside from as a trader. It’s what the Fed is doing Alright, but but as an investor I will look at political Trends now you very rarely heat people talking about political trends but political trends dictate what central bank’s eventually do Because they change the power structure of those central banks now Trump didn’t do that Probably his if I had to pick his worst fault. He doesn’t have a higher people I mean, he doesn’t understand ideology of who he’s hiring. So he picked pal who was chosen by by Obama He’s environmentalist you were in environmental fund. He’s an establishment guy He by nature doesn’t like Trump so That was the wrong choice. Kevin. Walsh would have been the best but needy in there he chose him and he’s chosen many other people that he Ideologically don’t fit his bill but getting back to your point the political trends around the world of moving to the term that’s used as nationalist populist and its center-right and to give you an example of the power of this if you look at Europe night to 2017 there were 946 elections within the European community 28 countries, so They lost 94% of them 94% of the center-left lost in 217 now that’s obviously we’re moving to the to the right now. What is right stand for here? less regulation low taxes less government dictates smaller government all of those have Fundamental consequences to what happens to interest rates and what happens to the economy? Trump was successful to a larger degree Because he basically put forth some of those policies and you’ll notice that Europe will never increase taxes there They’re a socialist nation. If you want to include the people who run it, but then you look at the European leaders Well any day Macron With this yellow vest protest. He’s got an 18 percent approval rate. He’s a dead man walking. He’s never gonna win another election He might be ousted at any time. This is his popularity is so low He’s he’s angered the people and you you know you France has a history of when you anger them. They revoked Theresa May same thing. She’s a globalist. She’s a New World Order globalist. She doesn’t want to do what the people voted for So she’s trying to get around it. She could get a no-confidence vote. She should be out And Allah Merkel, perhaps the the most powerful person in the world After well during the Obama administration And she’s gone she’s now just staying in her place but she says she’s not gonna run again and she may get housed that early so you see these trends are really what you have to watch because The monetary policy will follow those trends. So that’s a that’s an interesting point, or maybe it raises an interesting question So we have monetary policy under let’s call them more centrist or center-left policies globally coming out of the global financial crisis and They chose or some people would say we’re forced into aggressive monetary policy We just finished talking a little bit about the US and maybe the finger trap that we’re in here Which is to say that the economy looked good? We didn’t raise it’s we start raising rates were late cycle and maybe we’re doing at all at the wrong time What does some of these what options to some of these other countries these other economies have given that you’re at? extremely low historical interest rates already Asset purchase programs and the liquidity that They have given and to the markets and supported the markets are already out Even if we have populist movements if we move to the right Do you think that the influence you mentioned on this on? The central banks will have any effect? well the the answer to getting growth Is the same as what what Trump did? You you know, look you got a lower taxes Ideally, you got a slow spending. See you never hear of Japan Who by the way has a tax increase coming in October of to nineteen? And the European Union Doesn’t even talk about tax Decreases, but its harm the people the people are basically serfs and many people in the United States are serfs they Work to survive. They get a little piece of the action. That’s what a serf does and They can’t make it anymore. And that’s why when when when macron raised the gas tax To seven and a half dollars a gallon The people revolt abyss that can’t afford it. They can’t pay it. And therefore you you know you had this Happen if you’ve seen the yellow vest movements and you know the fires of burning the cars and things that people are voting So the point is the way that you know now I’m being an economist side of me I’m saying well Why don’t you lower taxes? less regulation less spending Ideally less spending Trump didn’t do that so much spending and and you get growth and then you get interest rates I mean, you know the three-year the 2-year bond is Is yielding I think it’s – 30 basis points could be more and inflation 3% now She’s gonna drop but the point is how do you buy how do you but I think it’s excuse me It’s the 10-year. They’re too many numbers. The 10-year is minus sixty With a three percent inflation right now again As I say inflation will decline this oil is declined and that’s why again pal made a mistake in any central bank that is right, you know trying to raise rates now is the wrong move the key is they Kept that policy in Europe because they didn’t want to lower taxes They’re Global’s they want to keep the people working for the people who you know Steve bangin would call them the Davos party. So that’s who they want It’s easy to solve. It’s the ideology that’s very difficult to get over the heads of the people in power So tying this back to markets and central banks, etc It sounds to me parsing through what you’re saying that at least when we’re talking about the developed world and developed world central bank’s who who have perhaps been the most aggressive in their monetary response to Really the crisis ten years ago now might just be hamstrung even if the politics shift in the direction of Attempted market friendly behavior at least from a policy standpoint their options might be limited They are Europe is Extremely limited so is Japan because they didn’t raise rates. They should have raised rates. They were afraid now They’re in a corner. How do you can’t lower rates when you have negative rates, right? And So they’re they’re they’re toast They’ve killed themselves and I sort of mean that literally the European Union cannot survive now predicting when a You know when a son of a nation ends is a very bad thing for traders to do But you could see you know, you look at the Soviet Union they lasted 72 years So you can’t you can’t they always have tricks, you know that they put forth So, I don’t know when the European Union will break up But it will and right now it’s probably in a more precarious state than it’s ever been because the the three top countries of Germany England and France in that order and they’re all in trouble, I mean the leaders are Out already to get to be thrown out. So if we step back and take, you know view at the whole world, is there anywhere? Maybe in the emerging markets Where you think the combination of political change? less central bank Division s today leads to opportunity right now. You’re you’re in in my view What what would be the cold defense or? Preserving principle unless you want to play the short side The short side is a difficult thing to play at this level because there’s an incentive for Trump and She Xin pinned to do a deal they do a deal on trade. The markets are gonna rally. I mean, there’s gonna be a psychological Big move up, that would be the time to short but you know Not the first day of the first week of the even maybe after three weeks, but the key is that’s coming so you’re really at this stage very difficult unless you’re a trader to Put on a short position and and you know sort of go away But the bottom line is is is that the the the world is in a precarious position? So you’re gonna be on the defense we had to put your money. I mean if you’re talking about a nation right now Brazil I would look for investments in Brazil. I would do the Jimmy Rogers game, you know, I mean this guy Boston ro is gonna do good things in my opinion and Switzerland because Switzerland is is is basically a place that is neutral all the time They have negative rates because they don’t they wanted to stop people from putting their money in the Swiss franc So, you know that let’s put this way that if I were And I’m not recommending a trade but just in theory I’d be long in Swiss franc short the euro, right? That would be a trade. I’d be long The Brazilian reality short the Mexican peso although the Mexican peso technically looks very good So I’m not saying P do this now. I’m saying from a fundamental pocket Yeah, you’re just looking at the backpack. But the chart on the Mexican peso looks very good So you can’t shut the Mexican peso here the key. Is that right? now you want to look for nations that are gonna do what Trump did in theory and You want to avoid the nations that are fighting it France? Until McCrone goes is in turmoil. Yeah, right Interesting. Well, so if we bring it back then to the US because you just now you have point back to what Trump did He obviously was very vocal about his impact on the markets while they were rising and as recently I think is Yesterday I’ve talked about the correction as a glitch and really a misunderstanding by the American people Is there anything to comment on that in terms of your world, you know his weakness is? basically his insecurity he has to tell you that he’s the greatest, you know, I mean I Kind of laugh at him. It doesn’t bother me. Whatever. He says it’s his personality I don’t care about his personality. I care about his policies but the point is his weakness is He he speaks too much and to take the credit while the market was going up Obviously he called it right he said don’t raise rates the markets down because the Fed did raise rates too much too fast So he’s right but there’s been times where he’s been made very much in favor of raising rates He seems to have two views. Yes who wants a strong dollar maybe because of the psychological I Think Larry Kudlow was influential in that. I don’t know if he ever wanted really as strong. He wanted a stable now Let me see. He understands dollar goes lower. Your goods are cheaper. You sell more, but but yes he he is all over the place because He doesn’t he doesn’t have What I’ll call conscious to tional principles that never change, you know, for example, you should never Employ price controls right? That’s a principle And not that he’s for them. I’m just using that as an example the point is is that he has now gotten himself in some soup because he’s taking credit for the market increase and now it’s gonna be political because it’s not his fault that the Fed raised rates, but he’s gonna get the blame so he politically harms himself Far more than he would if he just shut up because people would would attribute What’s happening to the economy if you lower taxes and cut regulations and the market goes up? You don’t have to say well I did it, right so he hurts himself in many ways and I repeat his worst mistake is How he hires people he hires people because he thinks they’re smart Vladimir Lenin is very smart is the smartest dictator they’ve lived Would you hire would you I don’t know his ideology is Opposite yours so the key is he makes these mistakes. Then he winds up learning about the people that they’re different He fires them and he looks bad right then. There’s no continuity, right? so if we if we maybe shift back to Politics and power politics in the globe. You know, how do you as a traitor? As an investor as an advisor You know, how do you think about the next few years? Is it very much? You said you use the word defense earlier in the interview, but are your time horizons shrinking? In terms of how you look at at the markets or investments. Are you trying to be more tactical? Or is it? You know are we just waiting for the signal for a bigger trend again? Well, let’s examine two points to answer that question, but I can only do this You know by looking at the past the the the experience of the path helps guide you to the future in 1854 the Nber has a Bureau of Economic Research Started to classify recoveries and recessions and They’ve been doing it ever since now from 1854 to 209 The the average recovery Was thirty eight point seven months thirty eight point six months since 82 It’s a hundred months What’s happened is the Fed? Got this magic wand this the Wizards wand and they said, you know Why should we let them are this is a greenspan concept being too smart for zone good how extend these say I put in the Greenspan put will keep the markets going will keep the recovery going and so when you do that, however when the game ends for whatever reason You get far greater downsides. I mean the the declines from 1854 there were a couple of depressions one in the 1870s in 1929 thirty-two, but you had 2000 – OH – there were three years of decline. The only other time that happened was in 1929 – 30 – 29 30 31 32 actually wound up being up here not him than June and The the point is that you had to await so now You’re kind of in a difficult spot because even though we’ve raised rates of two and a half percent You’re not gonna get much Vig by dropping rates 200% you know Although it would it would definitely cause a rally but the key is is that the Fed is is in trouble because it hasn’t It hasn’t budget itself properly like Europe is in worse trouble. Japan is in worse trouble but you know, we’re the with the best of the bunch, but the key is Is that you you really have to expect? All things being equal meaning no change you can have a Horrendous bear market here horrendous because you’re starting from a high plateau of ten years up the longest bull market in history 3,000 and almost 500 days And you have two thousand five thousand year old interest rates in Europe and since America was developed Let’s call it two hundred and thirty years ago. These are the lowest interest rates in two hundred years And by the way, just for your your audience when the Fed started to raise rates December 16th 2015 from zero to a little corner. The thirty-year was 3% exactly on that day It was 297 last night so you see the long end is is having Seeing the problems. The bond market is a great for teller of future economic news So you really have an issue where? You’ve raised rates nine times, but the long end of the market is lower than when you started So now you the real curve is inverting in some respects last night that the one year was 260 and the ten year was 265 I mean, yeah You are dropping can see that the Fed is never gonna be able to complete what it said it was going to do That’s not gonna help the key is what does it do with its balance sheet? Because that is where the rubber meets the road if they continue to sell then Then we’re we’re gonna see something in the order of a thirty seven or a twenty-nine thirty now to what extent you look at, you know different parts of the market because Despite it not you know being my day job exactly never really been us focused and probably have less of a technical Bend then you have I think you’d have to have your head in the sand to not realize that we’ve had a very concentrated leadership in the US markets for a long time maybe being Tech tech heavy I think all of our all the people watching know the names and the breath has maybe been absent and Even though we look at the December that we just have we’re filming, you know now here in January We look at the worst December since the Great Depression And we might say my goodness. The markets are just falling apart You’ve had these miniature blow ups and major bear markets in different sectors in the US markets and in many global markets over the last several years perhaps foreshadowing that Ultimately the the last shoe would drop being big US tech maybe healthcare But to what extent are you looking at? The the Sub industries of the S P. And is there anything that you that you take from the price action? You know there or between them tech versus maybe the resource sector okay, first a little background the Early the late sixties early seventies. We had the conglomerate craze There were these Conkle on everybody loved conglomerates. There were many of them then in the late 70s we had the nifty 50 a von Polaroid I was a block trader for we I sold my firm to Whedon and company and they made me a block trailer as an options Expert and I used the options to hedge The block trading I did in the nifty 50 That was kind of my the glamour stocks They call them it so they all have they all get nailed if the if the market is going to come down 73 74 conglomerates died 50 50 80 81. They got killed I mean Everything when the markets go down Everything goes down. So the fang stocks are you know, the tech stocks are over bees they’re overpriced Relatively speaking. And don’t forget all these. I mean not people talk about this the Facebook’s Google’s of the world make their money from advertising right? So if you have a recession, which we haven’t seen since 208 What’s the first thing you cut? Advertiser is nobody’s buying anything So there’s a fundamental. Let’s say behind the scenes obvious to me that if you own these Internet stocks, let’s call them there They’re gonna get sold aggressively for fundamental reasons. Now if you want to call tech, you know, let’s call Microsoft and some of the some of the semiconductor stocks Let’s call that tech most of them have moved offshore South Korea, Taiwan, China Build those things so we don’t really have a big tech industry per se In the United States all those jobs are moved offshore for the same reason the manufacturing jobs are just cheaper labor So all I can say is is that you can’t hide behind? Any group and now because you have so many of these ETF indices and so many stock indices You’re really trading stocks are stocks and Being a stock picker. There are some excellent stock pickers like Lee Koopman who recently is a man I know very well and friend of mine. I would say and and he’s excellent But he’s best in bull market space a outperform But if you’re long stocks in the bear market, nobody wins, you know bees although stocks are gonna go down. Yeah Yeah, it certainly looks precarious You mentioned obviously how low rates are historical historically speaking can go back thousands of years and Europe hundreds of years in the u.s The the debt role for u.s. Corporates looks pretty Scary at the moment Particularly in this rate environment, you know, you took incorporates to talking corporates. Yeah. Sorry true He’s another you know, I’m a man. That is a researcher So I have a lot of facts and I’m losing my memory in many areas, but not in these years if you from 61 to 208 The end of to a beginning to all nine if you took the thirty-year at the 30-day t bill and the 30-year long bond you add them together you divide by 2 you compound that? From from from 26 to 19 to 2008 the interest, excuse me, in this case from 61, not from 2016 16 1961 to 208 The average interest rate adding a t-bill to the long bond divided by 2 is five nine nines. Let’s say 6% Yesterday The average was 269 That’s 2.2 times to get to six now. What does this mean? There’s not a price in the world That’s accurate Coca-cola in India is not priced correctly now I don’t know. It should be higher or lower but there is no price correctness in the world. So all prices are going to be Adjusted once interest rates go back up And that is kind of obvious. But when you say it the way I’m saying it. I want to make people pause There has been nothing but a huge distortion of real-estate prices of stock prices of paintings a painting sold for 450 million dollars I mean, I’m not in the in the art world, but I mean, you know This is all based on the fact that stocks have been elevated and people have X, you know so much money They try to diversify. So this gets back to your Austrian economics better. Right? The old value is subjective the key here is is that you you must understand that this is Going to be reset One way or another it’s going to be reset again Timing is hard to predict here when like for example, if I said well interest rate it’s gonna be 6% again on average I mean, I can’t predict that I can’t predict when but someday well the the conclusion to that is that Anything with paper money? Will not protect you so if you own if you’re wealthy and you own stocks, or you own real estate in paper-money terms They’re gonna they’re gonna be depreciated The most unvalued thing and me and many of the other people on on Your you’re the sponsor here real vision TVs gold and silver are the most the cheapest things in the world Relative to other products in the world or other objects in the world. So, you know, I’m an investor in gold I’m an investor in silver in the physical and basically I’m comfortable and you know, I’ve been an investor a long time. It’s just question of Proportions, so to me, I that’s a place to invest that’s not a place to Train very hard trading Gold and silver very hard, so I wouldn’t recommend that but you know where you put your money we talked about, you know Maybe places like Switzerland and now maybe Brazil but the key is also from from from a sector point of view The mining stocks, which if gold goes up They actually are leveraged up because costs stay the same and the price goes up so they have higher margins So mining stocks are actually better than the physical Unless the world has real problems and then the physical is better than the miner stocks I should point out that Homestake mining which was the biggest mining gold mining company in the world in 1929 was eight dollars in 1936 traded at $70 so you see mining stocks can go up button and you couldn’t own gold in those days because Roosevelt had confiscated the gutter. Have we missed anything? Well, yeah, let me let me mentioned it and I’ve been a huge researcher on debt. Everybody talks about debt and I Believe And with all due respect and great deference To mr. Dahle. Oh Maybe see he’s recently done some videos and he put out a new book I think and What most people are not aware of is that starting in 2:14? The rules were changed That have a huge Benefit to the US government when they sell debt now, we all know they got a trillion dollar deficit and you got 22 trillion on balance sheet and You got 10 trillion off balance sheet, which very few people talk about forget the unfunded liabilities If you want to know what the real deficit is you got to look at the gap way of figuring the deficit because you got to take into account on funded liabilities you Wouldn’t have a deficit of a trillion. You have a deficit of six trillion So you could see you know, there’s lots of games that are played But the key is most people are just not aware of these rules now If you buy debt as a bank This applies the banks and my let me give you the the bottom line before I explain why the government can the US government could sell all of that at once there is no Debt deficits and debt does not matter at all Now it will Sunday But it doesn’t if you want to sell debt in other words The government will always be able to fund itself has nothing to do with overseas most commentators You know who went to school got master’s degrees that they’re not up on the x? So what do I mean by this Basel three? You have no capital hits to a bank they’re exempt sovereign debt is exempt this goes for you know, ECB and Japan There’s no harm done there You buy government debt you don’t have you haven’t put aside anywhere Erbs So there’s no reserve hit You buy government debt they have an account now, and this was in 214 where it’s called whole to maturity HTM accounts The other account is available for sales. If you’re a bank and you want to buy a hundred billion of US debt 30 years, which is what you want Because you get the interest on that debt You have no risk, there’s no mark-to-market Because you put it in your yet Okay, so I know enough about this to be dangerous, but I want to make sure everybody’s following you so far So we’re talking about the US government and its ability to fund itself the US government sells government bonds on the spectrum of maturities some people would sit out there saying well at some point they’ll be Absent a buyer, but what you’re explaining now Is that because of rule changes in a closed system? where our banks or global banks are able to buy sovereign debt without putting aside any capital meaning that there’s no Hit to their capital ratio owning it you’re saying there’s essentially an unlimited demand, especially given that there’s no mark to market So there’s no earnings risk, etc. Correct, and they will always be the bidder for these outside of maybe It’s a real Rothschild arbitrage The banks have put themselves in a position to purely arbitrage the interest Nothing can happen to them and a matter of fact, they didn’t get the last point but they print the money right so they come in they just write a check to the to the Treasury if They if they’re bidding in the auction is one of the primary dealers and they print the money just like banking 101 Where you print money to people, of course, there’s a reserve when you make normal loans in this case. There’s no reserve because The government will print the money and give it to you. I mean there is some logic behind it. That is not prudent, but if there is logic if if you can’t lose because The Treasury will give you the money there if you if you’re buying bonds below par You have no risk, right? So I only say that because Again, I’m not suggesting that You should buy bonds and you can’t lose I’m saying that a bank can buy bonds and it can fund something without without the normal process taking place now, by the way, if you call a central bank and you ask them about this It’s not easy to get information and they won’t talk to you. They don’t really want this Let’s say you can research it and you can find these rules about what you know what the what the reserve requirement would be if you buy a a 2-year US government bond or a note in this case and You’ll find it, but but they don’t want to Let’s say tell you easily. So if you call they’ll say well email this department. You’ll email that department. You’ll never hear from them I tried it So they really want to confirm they want you to confirm, but they don’t want to tell you so we started down this line of Talk was debt generally and we started now and we started by saying, you know, let’s talk about government debt I think that’s essentially where we’re going and our ability to fund ourselves in perpetuity and there Based on what you just explained there might be good reason to believe that as long as our banks are on board Which maybe they would be strong-armed to be at all times that in a closed system We could perpetually fund our deficits as long as everybody continued to be Incentivized to do they’re incentivized to do it now if the only question I’d have for you again, since you brought up Austrian economics, you know ends up being the definition of inflation which Often times can prick problems and deficits and in bonds and we look at or I think the market looks at Silly measures like CPI, and we believe that that’s inflation. But if you are true Austrian economists you’d say that the increase in the money supply and the growth and money supply is actually inflation, so when the government our government or any other one prints money and Whatever money aggregate you want to use starts expanding? That’s the true inflation number. Yeah, it’s it’s it’s how you Define what inflation is you’re on the right track? And by the way, avoid corporate bonds was the point of that story because this doesn’t apply the corporates corporates They got reserves and they don’t have they don’t have the same ability To not take losses as I mean if it and we’re seeing it but yeah The markets are locked up there, right a corporate bond can go out of business. The US government doesn’t want a business It just prints more money But getting back to the inflation point here is the key question and I was wrong on this So let me put myself right out there when they were when the government was doing when the film was doing qyz you would have assumed there’d be hyperinflation and the reason there wasn’t and I give the Fed credit for this one is because they they basically Took money and they didn’t give it to the people they gave it to wealthy investors insiders banks and So let’s say you worth a hundred million dollars hundred billion dollars and I come to you and I say look I want to buy your bonds and Here’s 100 billion you give me the bonds. Well, you’re not gonna go spend, you know, you can only Bible a couple of yards So taking a step back what you’re saying. Is that the velocity of money Which is the critical part? Money in printings impact on inflation never picked up velocities. It’s at a 50-year low right because you’re giving money to the people in exchange for an asset and The people who you’re exchanging that asset for are wealthy people who are not going to spend the money But reinvest the money whether it be stocks, which most of them did or or bonds But the point is you didn’t give the money to the people now Let me just put this into its context in 1920 when Germany lost world war 1 and there was this thing called reparations they have For the expenses. Well, they bankrupt the Germany. Well Germany printed the Mont printed money, but they gave it to the people So whether people do they spent it see so if you don’t give money to the people You’re not gonna see as long as velocity is dropping. That’s your key that you know, there’s no turnover, right? I mean in the 20s in 1920 the the coming into 1922 and 3 which were the bad years you had money turnover velocity of 1.5, which is About what is today in the u.s. It went to 12 so money turned over 1 see once a month the money supply turned once a month instead of One and a half times a year so you could see that’s where you get your inflation, right? So again just to to not you know Not let’s say put in context because governments have tricky ways to do things so if they want to stimulate the economy and stimulate wealth They just give it to the wealthy people who invest it and don’t spend it and you don’t see it in the CPI You see it in the stock market the art market. The real estate market is etc I don’t want to complicate things, but I think when we talk about you know wealthy people in this case the money that was printed mainly went to banks and banks Mostly put that excess liquidity back to the Fed in excess reserves, right? So the big economic Conundrum and I’m speaking a little bit above my paygrade here But I think to synthesize what you’ve been saying All of this money was printed but as you said instead of going to the people or instead of going into the real economy it ended up really amongst the banks and Because the banks weren’t lending it we didn’t have maybe some people would say would argue We didn’t have real economic growth which would come from lending it to the people which then meant spending by the people and it ended up at the Fed in terms of excess reserves or in other places where velocity of money wouldn’t take up that liquidity again really became a manifest itself in speculative activity like the market or Frankly just on the bull fed know exactly what happened, but but some of the people did get Some of the money and they like to say they invested it not spent it and and that’s a part of it But would you says accurate 100 percent? But that’s why you didn’t get inflation because the money they paid for the one of them I think may been the first time in history, but I’m not sure they paint interest on reserves So the banks didn’t have the incentive to lend it to loan out the money. That’s right. So where does that bring us today? Because again, I don’t want to make the conversation overtly bearish it’s been a long cycle of people expecting that this you know policy eventual mistake was gonna have its reckoning in the market and we haven’t Until very recently. So again, wary of crying wolf here, but when we look at all the things that you’ve talked about You know political change but political change in places where? Monetary policies already been extreme we talk about real economic activity Waning despite again the punchbowl being in front of the economy for the last, you know, 10 years and also now turning over Now we we’ve talked about velocity of money and and and why there’s been no inflation and it’s because throughout this Apparent economic expansion that we’ve had over the last 10 years Lending has actually in real economic activity as some would measure it never really picked up and now we’re potentially going into recession and there’s even Less probability that the banks are going to use that capital if they have for lending purposes So a lot of moving pieces, but but how does this filter down into? victors view of the world going forward It’s got lots of problems and unless things change Less policies change we’re back to where we started You’re in a bear market you’re going to be in a recession and by July Statistically speaking. Maybe it’ll be August maybe September. Yes Now if this major changes you have to filter the things being in all things being equal you’re in a recession in six months And it’s begun. I mean the you look at the the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report and and and the other one that came out was Richmond. I Mean they look pretty terrible to me. Yeah, so You know the key here is survival, right Staying alive, you know Jimmy Rogers. I know him a long time every time I meet him Sometimes we meet in the men’s room in a restaurant. I mean he’s now moved to Singapore so I don’t see him as much but every time I see him he said oh you still solvent I said, yeah How you doing, Jimmy? Yeah, I’m still sobbing. So that was our favorite exchange of words Because you never know But things you know, I mean the markets can be up going up and many pros could be short. So I thank goodness I didn’t lose a lot of money on the upside being short. I’m short once or twice on a trading level. Where where I used the options and I lost a part of that but you know, I The market on the way up, but let me also say that I missed the bulk of the move Because I never believed the fed would continue to play the game as they did. So I’ve been very conservative for the last and so I You know This is all new to most of the old money managers who never seen things like this well I think that actually might be at least in my opinion one of the most interesting lead ends of the conversation so far because as I said in the beginning of the interview, but I’ll repeat we at least Externally from an age perspective are from different investing generations. I was very lucky To cut my teeth in the industry for a firm who was on the right side during the financial crisis also big believers in Austrian economics skeptics of extraordinary monetary policy, etc so I think I’ve always kind of carried that chip along with me that that That market scan can get very weird very fast And that there is a such thing as a bear market mentality versus a bull market mentality but one of the things that you know I’d say maybe keeps me up at night or certainly keeps the wheels and in my brain moving, is that most investors today? And getting to your point Really are just of the bull market generation Right and and you’ve done such a good job today of walking us through stats of statistics going back in some cases hundreds of years Which shed a lot of light on you know what happens in different parts of the cycle But one thing then makes me a little bit nervous here is that we have a lot of market participants Who aren’t really students of history? They aren’t even students of near-term history like 2008 or they certainly didn’t live at first hand so If everything that you’re saying is true we we Market as a whole might be woefully unequipped to deal with it Correct the PT Barnum line, you know the annual crop of suckers I mean, I don’t mean that if people lose money and downside that they’re suckers. I mean that they’ve been led to drink this kool-aid and The Fed would save them now the question yet. They ask is Why the ten members vote? to raise rates when To anybody who knows markets they wouldn’t have raised rates. Is it political? Are they now become a political I mean inflation is? one of their band-aids Price stability they’ve got two percent going out for three more years in their projections Unemployment is three point seven or whatever the way through foreign aid, whatever it is. I mean, so what are they targeting? They’re targeting growth? They’re targeting GDP. Why? That’s not part of their mandate The Trampas Trump is right. He just doesn’t express himself. Well Do you think That if the Fed had stayed on hold that the market would have had a positive reaction Yeah, I do. I think it would have been very pie because everybody was expecting it Like I said to raise rates But they didn’t believe they really would do it Because they said it see they guided you to what they were gonna do and then they did it But they didn’t change their the you know with all the editorials. Like I said of many in the Wall Street Journal aside from Druckenmiller And they still raise rates. So they they really made a Horrible error, they’re gonna be on par with 29. Now. How do they get out of this mess? Caplin eight hours ago it was saying well, maybe we should wait till after the first second quarter and you know they’re already trying to walk back some of it because they’re seeing this seem like Well, that’s all very interesting, you know, there are definitely some people in the market that that perhaps incorrectly Thought that a hold would be a signal that the wheels were really coming off. No, it’s not the way it works That that is it’s a great talking point. It’s a great excuse It’s 2 and 2 if you raise right, you know what I mean, people are paying and all those two credit cards Did I mean right now? If you get a statement and you know obviously pay off for my statement I don’t have any good but the key is you look at the same. It’s like 18.6 annualized rate There’s 4 trillion in credit card debt, so You’ve Majan with what’s happening to the people. So lowering interest rates would not look bad because the the point is The people would be paying less in interest. Oh sure and they’ve had more money to do other things with per se so that they should have how they should have stayed the the the excuses are just mind Boggling that’s why this company is doing so well versus CNBC because they’re losing viewership nothing against CNBC Perce ASA pit bulls and here people get to express and say What they what they believe yes, so One may be more nuanced question on this point just because I think we have a little bit of time But how do you as a veteran trader? Look at the kind of coincident news ie the Fed choosing to hike Stay stay on hold or cut in the moment versus what the market is pricing in terms of probability of these moves the reason I ask is because you talk about responses and maybe the way that either policymakers or Politicians will do an about-face to try and save the market And potentially prevent the recession that otherwise would come in in six months, but the futures markets and interest rates Are starting to price that in already that about-face? How do you reconcile the two you know what you? Kind of get in terms of future expectations in the futures market Versus what happens in the moment on decision day? Okay. Well You you you go back to technicals in fundamental. So you look at the charts And aside from the charts as a trader you buy extreme weakness because you know the feds going to come in at this point they have they don’t want really the markets to continue to go down they’ve stabilized them by I mean they You know look I’ve been buying things and selling things for 55 years if you want to buy something and it’s your stuff Do you really? Run up a hundred handles in the S&P. No, there’s no news that day that That’s the Fed saying look we don’t work. You know, we don’t want to cause a crash here. So we’re gonna stabilize the markets So if the markets are going down in an extreme fashion The later in the day the better You you buy some you don’t buy the full boat because again It can continue down you want to average in the feds gonna be there from here on in to stop any crash because they know The eyes are on them The shutdown has nothing to do with the markets, right? these are just to be clear we’re saying is that you do think that We will have the Fed or the plunge Protection team is that’s so affectionately known on extreme moves in the market participating Right, there’s one There’s one contingency of that When you’re a manipulator You do not buy on bad news like with this Apple news The Fed is not going to spend their money if this Apple news and I’m expanding if there was bad news across the board You’re wasting your money because people will sell to you so you can only buy When the markets are crashing and there’s no news, you know in this people are unwinding is a margin calls or whatever It might be sure so the key is that if there’s no news and it’s quiet and the markets are selling off That’s when you buy but if this if there’s news The GDP is gonna be revised down by the Atlanta Fed. Yeah to negative. Why fight? The markets gonna go down if they can’t stop that because people will sell to you right and so you have to be a Manipulator you have to do it when it’s quiet Then you buy it up and you know that’s the way that the game works does that’s a little bit of a trading pitch there about what I do, but Really right now the key is if you’re an investor you should be extremely conservative And you should be in in debt. You should be in the yen’s gone crazy here That’s just you mean government that you mean bonds government. Yeah not corporate it and you should be in In gold and silver and the mining shares which are on the they’re their bottom and as You see gold has been going up and silver been going up because people moving their money To to defensive positions. That’s why the yen went up Well, that is a lot of food for thought. I think it’s been a great interview. Thank you so much for your time You’re welcome. Thank you. Bye ask the right questions you did Until Roland grant. I appreciate you know their consideration to that They got a great business and it’s great to see the interviews that they have put forth So, it’s great that Victor. Thanks. Thank you for talking

    Forex Channels – How To Draw Trade & Profit for Profitable Trading Decide Overbought Oversold Prices
    Articles, Blog

    Forex Channels – How To Draw Trade & Profit for Profitable Trading Decide Overbought Oversold Prices

    August 18, 2019


    let’s talk about channels for a minute
    here we’ve got an upward trend and as we discussed previously we can draw a
    support line which represents a diagonal which is kind of guiding the price and
    the price keeps bouncing off it in its journey to the top now what we’re going
    to do is we’re going to take this diagonal and we’re going to copy it and
    we’re going to put it above the price so there it is it’s got the same angle as
    the first one and it’s sitting on one of the highs of the price so once again as
    you can see here the price is also bouncing off this diagonal as well and
    bouncing downwards the price is kind of moving in a channel or corridor now what
    are we anticipating from the price going forward well right now we are probably
    expecting for the price to bounce off the top border and then to go back up
    this is where we would enter into a buy order so once the price has bounced off
    we would wait for it to hit this bottom border of the channel we would enter
    into buy order and if the price goes in our direction once it hits the top
    border again that’s when we would close our trade so it’s important to note here
    that in an upward channel you it is recommended to trade only buy orders and
    why is that well let’s step take a few steps back for a second at this stage
    we’re anticipating for the price to go down so we could technically conduct a
    sell order but it’s not advisable for two reasons first of all we’d be trading
    against the trend and that’s something we said we shouldn’t do we should always
    trade with the trend and second as you can see here the downward movement is
    actually smaller than the upward movement so in an upward channel if you
    create sell orders you will always earn less than if you create buy orders so
    that’s another reason why an upward channel you should only trade
    by work next we’re going to look at a downward channel so here we got a
    downward trend we can draw a resistance line if we copy that line we can see
    that very often the price will also follow the copied line so it won’t break
    through it will bounce off that line and channels are very common on the forex
    market and you’ll see this from our live training on a real account further down
    in this course so here we’re expecting the price to go up then we’ll conduct a
    sell order and we’ll close our order once the price reaches the opposite side
    of the channel so once again in a downward channel it is advised to open
    sell orders because you would be in this case you’ll be trading with the trend
    and you’ll get longer movements and so those are the two main ways of training
    channels it’s actually one way but in two different types of channels and it’s
    always trading inside the channel and more often than not the price does stay
    in the channel but sooner or later of course the price will break the channel
    and that’s why there’s an alternative strategy where in this case instead of
    opening a sell order you would open a buy order and you would expect the price
    to go somewhere out of the channel you would use this strategy when your other
    analysis is telling you that this channel is getting too old and the price
    is going to break through it so when the channel is quite new there’s more
    chances that the price will stay inside when the channels been around for a
    while the chances of the price breaking out are constantly growing both
    strategies are valid depends on the situation and what your other technical
    analysis tells you so to sum up with channels Direction trade with the
    channel stay inside the channel it’s more likely that the price will bounce
    into the channel there’s an alternative strategy which is a breakthrough
    strategy and that is used when you expect the price to break free from the
    channel all right

    All About Kim Jong-un – Supreme Leader of North Korea – 김정은
    Articles, Blog

    All About Kim Jong-un – Supreme Leader of North Korea – 김정은

    August 13, 2019


    Welcome to the Investors Trading Academy event
    of the week. Each week our staff of educators tries to introduce you to a person of interest
    in the financial world. This could be a person in government or banking or an important investors
    or trader, on just someone making the financial headlines in recent days.
    Much of the early life of Kim Jong-un is unknown to Western media. Presumably born in North
    Korea, Kim Jong-un is the son of Ko Young-hee, an opera singer, and Kim Jong-il, who was
    the military-oriented leader of the country for over a decade until his death in 2011.
    Kim Jong-un has continued the country’s nuclear testing and what is believed to be
    the development of missile technology despite international disapproval. He has pledged
    to focus on educational and economic reforms and is more mediagenic in his approach to
    leadership than his father. In the summer of 2012, it was revealed that
    Kim had taken a wife, Ri Sol-ju. While the couple’s exact wedding date is unknown, one
    source reported it as 2009. It has also been speculated that the couple have a child.
    North Korea’s controversial supreme leader Kim Jong-un has an estimated $5 billion at
    his disposal, according to the Huffington Post. The UN says this money should be spent
    on raising standards in this impoverished country and on its people but much of it isn’t.
    He reportedly spends an average $30 million each year on importing liquors into the country
    for his elite circles. His favorites are whisky and cognac, but not just any brands. He prefers
    the more expensive kinds such as Hennessy which can cost up to $2,145 for the best bottle.
    Kim spares no expense when it comes to his diet. He’s been known to order in top quality
    pork from Denmark, caviar delivered from Iran, Chinese melon and steaks of Kobe beef, a Japanese
    delicacy. While the exact figure he spends on feeding himself and his inner circle the
    best cuisine in the world is not known, the sum is estimated to be in the millions.
    Most people will only ever dream of owning a yacht, but Kim Jong-un is the proud owner
    of a 200-foot yacht that was described by his friend Dennis Rodman as a “cross between
    a ferry and Disney boat”. The top-of-the-line Princess yacht is kitted out with a Fendi
    interior and is valued at a cool $8 million. The Telegraph reports that the textbooks taught
    in North Korean schools apparently claim that Kim was a child prodigy who learned how to
    drive at the tender age of three. What is true is that he has quite an impressive garage.
    It’s been reported that he owns up to 100 cars after beginning to collect them at a
    very young age. His favorite brand is Mercedes-Benz. Kim recently gave an inside glimpse at his
    newly re-vamped private jet aptly named Air Force Un – a reference to the United States’
    Presidential aircraft, Air Force One. Having added luxurious touches like crystal ash trays
    and leather couches, the new look is a lot more lavish than the plane’s previously
    clinical interior and is likely to have cost him around $1.5 million.