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    HOW I MAKE 100K+ A YEAR LIVING MY DREAM!
    Articles, Blog

    HOW I MAKE 100K+ A YEAR LIVING MY DREAM!

    August 23, 2019


    is this whole thing a scam do I even
    trade is this even real is this money or am I using a simulator what is the real
    deal who in the world is Patrick Whelan where do I even begin well I guess I
    should start from beginning to paint the whole picture to really explain where I
    came from and how this worked I promise it won’t be too long but I gotta kind of
    start at the beginning so starting back 2006 I graduated high school you know I
    was working construction with my dad I really had no idea and you know I was
    like what am I gonna do the rest my life I went a little bit of Community College
    I had no idea Community College suck so I dropped out a community college I went
    for like one semester and that was total waste of time and money and I had
    everything to do construction was terrible I could not work with trucks on
    with my life so honest job I’m not going to hate anyone who works instruction if
    you work construction Congrats to you but you know that it’s a
    tough job and it’s not the best job in the world so I was like well I want to
    make some money I’m living in Orlando I live on the outskirts of Linda I grew up
    in the country have no idea it’s literally the whole tiny town a middle
    of nowhere like literally there’s no cell phone service middle of nowhere but
    overall I grew up in the country I was sheltered to the idea that I live in the
    country and the country life is is the life that I live but luckily Orlando had
    one good thing going for and that’s that every single pro a four in the world
    lived in Orlando and why does that matter what I started to wake for is
    heard the wastegate and I started to film and you know in high school if I
    told my friends then I started filming pro wake skaters and how does that even
    work well I started making videos for this website I started getting paid ma
    $50 per video I might gonna make a living if I work hard enough by making
    enough of these videos even at $50 I make 100 videos I’m gonna make $5,000 so
    I would just start pumping out videos every day I was trying to make a video I
    said into the magazine so the website house like come on post this pay me pay
    me pay me and I would make money that way so after time I was like okay I got
    on retainer for $4 a month they gave me $40 a month to make videos and I was
    like okay that’s it’s going I’m making some money now so I quit the job working
    construction I started working as a valet as a valet I was working at the
    Country Club over Orlando there’s a lot of really rich people a lot of nice car
    lots of all that go in there are lawyers doctors people with a lot of money so I
    was kind of exposed to the idea of people with a lot of money you know nice
    cars people that worked and worked and financed the
    different stuff and I hear stories that listen people talking about Finance and
    the stock market stuff not saying okay that’s how you get rich so the rich
    should get rich making money with their money they’re not out working hard
    they’re just using their money to make money so that generally makes sense to
    me but I’ll say okay I’ll figure that out at some point
    but right now I’m just going to focus on my filming and editing and all that so I
    started filming editing and I work for the website and the best part was is
    some of the comments on the videos because you know obviously you can
    comment on all the videos just like on YouTube we had our own website we could
    comment on the actual videos and some of the comments were amazing most the
    comments started out with this video is terrible
    petulant sucks some of the comments would say Patrick Whelan should kill
    himself these videos are the worst and that’s as part of it people hated on it
    they hate his videos and for a long time there was nothing but hey it got gnarly
    some pointed hated me for actually making videos or getting paid for the
    videos and they hated the idea they were jealous or whatever it is they were they
    just hated the idea that I was getting paid kind of fueled the motivation to
    make money for me to make the videos better I was like I’m gonna make the
    next video so good that there’s no way they can hate on it in it took time and
    I’m making more more more videos and over time people are like titta stops
    hating cuz they’re like okay well there’s no point in us hating cuz it’s
    not going to quit making the video so that was a good thing because luckily
    people didn’t want me to die anymore so I was happy about that so fast forward
    from there I started to make $800 you know a foreign thing in four hours now I
    make $800 making videos and I was like okay now I it’s kind of a full-time deal
    right I can live off $800 a month no problem
    you know just learning more about filming so I start to fill me more and
    started doing more and more and more filming and I started working for this
    website called grind TV which is owned by Yahoo at the time and we started
    making videos on crying TV I actually started running their website stuff
    every day on they’re getting paid I’m getting paid $700 a month sounds like
    this is amazing Allen I’m making you know almost 2500 hours a month just from
    filming from website and it is amazing I can actually do this you know everybody
    told me it’s beginning there’s no way you can make money doing this you’re not
    good or you can’t do this or this is no way there’s no way to do it and I kind
    of proved them wrong to the point that I’ve been doing it I’m not had a real
    job not work 9 to 5 being like that I kind of pride myself on the idea that I
    don’t have a boss more of like a client kind of relationship where they’re not
    exactly my boss but they pay me yeah you could I’d you freedom to do what I want
    and I kind of like that I want to work with companies who want me to be
    creatively free with them and to do stuff where I’m not tied down and I can
    just do what I want and that’s kind of the best place for me to work and I
    started doing more and more stuff over the years I traveled around the entire
    world I got to the point where I get a new passport because I have so many
    passport stamps I literally went everywhere to film wakeboarding surfing
    all these different sports action sport stuff working for companies like redbull
    Nike doing you know first all the way forwarding companies Billabong all these
    different companies working for them doing videos making videos for their
    websites internet YouTube all that kind of fun stuff I actually made a
    full-length movie at one point called lipsmack it was my first DVD movie thing
    it’s on itunes it’s it’s not bad but it’s not amazing it’s pretty cool just
    kind of action sports wakeboarding movie thing that we made and you know over
    time this kind of got better and better making more money making you know more
    being steady making more money I got the point right we breached over a hundred
    thousand dollars a year from just filming and it was like that’s amazing
    this is an awesome job and I’m kind of living the dream doing what I want to do
    so the internet video thing you know it’s harder to fizzle it but it got to
    the point where every single person had a GoPro every single person had an HD
    camera so as the Internet the craze is going higher the actual pay for those
    videos is going lower because companies also pay as much because everybody has a
    GoPro and everybody’s are I can film a video everyone’s a Video Editor now and
    everyone’s making videos so now it’s just getting the point where it’s harder
    to actually get paid to make videos so I got really lucky once again I got I
    don’t know if it’s love keep saying it’s really like I got really lucky
    but it took a lot of hard work I worked really really hard to get to the point
    where I could get really lucky to do this job and then I got a job with the
    company called slingshot sports kind of as getting paid a salary will retainer
    kind of idea they retain my services to work for them make their videos for all
    the different companies that are underneath the umbrella did a couple
    different offset companies up like that skateboarding and kite boarding
    companies like that I started making videos for making all their videos for
    the last five six years now making videos for them for the different
    product releases and product cycles so that was really awesome experience
    getting to work with them kind of launched some new brands with them and
    do cool things around the world traveling seeing things I never saw
    before with a kiteboarding side of it and learning a lot about it and
    wakeboarding just all cool stuff that we did there with
    slingshots still working for Singh shot so I’m happy to have that opportunity
    that you know I work with one of my best friends that runs the slingshot
    kiteboarding now we get to travel the world and come up always crazy ideas to
    make videos and just do exactly we want the two years ago I got lucky I got
    insanely lucky once again I keep saying look it took a lot of work to make this
    deal happen and I think I really proved myself right off the bat this company so
    I go on Craigslist I was always on Craigslist looking for videos to make
    companies you be surprised kind of videos that I found on Craigslist
    actually one time film the reality TV show often ad on Craigslist for a TV
    show but was world I film James Stewart for the TV show it was all off on
    Craigslist I found the ad on there looking for cameraman and I got a job
    off of Craigslist filming a reality TV show I went to Craigslist and saw an ad
    looking for a social media manager for a drone company I was like oh that’s
    that’s weird okay so I hit the drum company I was
    like hey I can run some social media I mean I I’m my own social media it’s
    pretty good i I’ve been doing other stuff with slingshot and companies I ran
    the wakeboarding magazines social media so I know about social media I can do
    that after talking with the owner of the company and really kind of selling him
    on the idea that hey I don’t want to work 9:00 to 5:00 but I will work harder
    than 95 I will work you know 24 hours a day when it comes down to it I will
    always be on the clock but I’m not gonna come to the office I’m not really gonna
    have rules if women need to be there and all that stuff but I will work harder
    than anyone else that you pay 9:00 to 5:00 and ask kind
    of how it worked out so luckily for the last two years almost I’ve been working
    for drone nerds now running their social media running our YouTube doing stuff
    like that cruising videos and also creating some content for some clients
    to suffer them so it’s been pretty awesome when I first started working
    within they had a thousand subscribers on their Instagram and now we have one
    hundred thirty five thousand subscribers so a huge jump there in the last two
    years basically just growing it organically
    working with some professional athletes doing some giveaways and just growing it
    slowly producing content posting content every single day finding the best
    content and just curating it all and keeping it very high quality and pretty
    much grown the drone airs brand from the point of small-time company that was
    selling products to the point where we are the world’s largest roan distributor
    and retail store online and we have retail store in South Florida here so
    it’s pretty awesome to see that growth there in the last two years
    I’m not taking full credit for by but obviously working hard with
    Instagram posting every single day and being consistent with the best quality
    content has promoted Drona to the point where now it’s the largest Instagram
    drone page in the world they’re on Instagram you know at your owners check
    it out if you are interested in drones and we also have a YouTube channel
    that’s growing rapidly some great videos on there talking about drones and some
    of the videos traveling the world that I’ve filmed so earlier I talked to you
    about how is we’re going to country-club people talking about the stock market so
    this whole time I’m doing all this filming editing and kind of making money
    really not having any idea how to save money not having any idea how to put
    money in the bank I would just buy stuff buy buy buy buy cars trucks and all it
    just travel and just blow all my money I’d go out and spend a thousand dollars
    at the strip club in one night like it was no big deal because you know I was
    making a lot of money at the time but I had no idea really how to grow that
    money how to invest that money the beginning of last year I kind of got
    more and more interested in the stock market and I started learning about
    stock market and I actually went and opened a etrade account because I was
    like well I’m gonna start buying and selling stocks I really started learning
    about day trading the idea that I buy and sell stocks I wasn’t buying as
    rapidly but I was buying kind of the bigger name stock I bought a company
    called Fitbit right before their er I was like this is amazing it’s going I
    was like stuff like 15% on the day for going into the ER and then after the ER
    came out it crashed like 30 40 percent almost in half and it was like whoa I
    had no idea really what I was doing so I needed to learn more and I started to
    research and learn and absorb anything and everything that I could about day
    trading in the last year and just really focusing on learning about it all of
    last year I really had no idea I was just like what is going on I would buy a
    stock in crash I no idea I had this I didn’t know how to understand candles or
    charts I’m not using Robin Hood I didn’t know what I was doing kept learning kept
    learning I learned about mall cab runners I learned about stocked with I
    would want to talk to it and read about stocks learn about news coming out of
    like that learning about biotechs I have started a couple different chat rooms
    learning talking people in there and learning more and more about stocks I
    traded me all kinds different things I was trading nugget and dust for a while
    I was really figured out the gold world and then at one point I was doing the
    oil three times etf de wtiu WTI making money there on the big swings but also
    losing money because it was such a volatile time last year with oil I even
    thought at one point that I had mastered T VIX I got lucky couple times
    of T VIX I had no idea really what it even was I this this is kind of crazy
    like it kind of tracks the stock market so I bought C VIX several times and lost
    money made money and it just had no idea well the end of last year middle of last
    year I learned about this chatroom this guy supposedly who knew everything about
    stocks and small caps and stuff like that I was like okay well I tried it out
    and it was like it worked out pretty good the chatroom worked really well
    there were some great members in there who had a lot of information asking
    questions and learning talking to people and kind of getting an idea how it all
    works so over the last six seven eight months I started to really get into it
    and learn and try to learn everything I can and read everything and go online
    and just watch videos and absorb everything that I can
    beginning of this year I felt pretty good about I felt like I had an idea how
    it all works the mechanics of day trading the actual idea of using a
    broker like store traders of like that margin all that kind of stuff
    figuring it all out so beginning of this year I started really kind of getting
    into day trading every single day trading I was training it much last year
    but it’s kind of off and on I would travel I wouldn’t trade it would come
    back travel I would lose I wouldn’t want to trade it was just a big emotional
    roller coaster ride and beginning of this year I was like okay this is the
    year I’m gonna really go at it I’m gonna go in with a plan I know the rules now I
    know what to do I know the idea I know the theory of it I know how I need to do
    it I just need to focus I need to get down and dirty and really roll up my
    sleeves here and learn everything that I can about day trading so that’s really
    what happened there in January I got down to it trading and learning
    everything I can so then I thought maybe I’ll start a YouTube channel because if
    I started YouTube channel I can kind of learn my own mistakes so it’s been an
    awesome experience you know a lot of people on here on the YouTube have been
    supportive and people have actually gave me ideas or criticism that has helped me
    grow as a trader so it’s been great to kind of see everything going on I also
    started have at Allison our challenge growing $1,000 to $10,000 and then just
    trying to learn and focus my skills and so with the channel it’s awesome for you
    guys to kind of see that progress hopefully everyone’s kind of progressing
    with me that’s a cool thing as well seeing other channels seen other day
    traders that make videos they’re just hair
    they just sound like a robot talking about I bought their stock at $5 and I
    sold it at $7 so I’m trying to keep these videos informative fun
    entertaining to the point that you guys enjoy the videos you learn a little bit
    and I was watching the terrible videos last year and it just I just couldn’t
    keep track of the videos I didn’t really learn a lot because the videos were so
    bad I was like this video guy is an idiot even though maybe he knows what
    he’s doing he just cannot tell me how to do it so so that brings us to the
    hearing now you know people always ask me you know how do I make money do I
    make money dis off day trading I make money off day trading make money trading
    I also have a larger account that I have some long positions in and then I have
    my small account that I kind of just play around with day trading the smaller
    Digg runners if there’s a really insane amazing runner that I might buy my large
    account make some money that way but also to see I’m trading the small
    account in the morning and then I have my Long’s or shorts and in my larger
    account but overall I do make money off of trading this is not just a simulation
    I make money off of trading now I make money off of drill nerds with their
    social media running that kind of stuff working for slingshot so I have like
    three or four different revenue incomes that keeps me you know keeps me happy
    keeps me living the life that I want to live where I can go and spend money
    however I want to spend it buy the car that I want to buy my goal this year is
    to buy an Audi r8 as my second car by the end of the year so that’s kind of my
    goal right now if someone’s about the terrible goal that you want to buy a car
    but that’s a car that I’ve always wanted I got the a7 which I always wanted
    beginning of this year so I’m happy about that but now I want another one
    and I want a better one so I have two cars I have my daily drivers and I have
    my fun fast car that’ll be the r8 so that’s kind of the goal right now if
    I wanted to I could quit the other things and live an easier slower just
    day trading and make couple thousand dollars a month and it’s kind of relaxed
    kind of thing but it wouldn’t be as fun as working hard every single day I sleep
    maybe three or four hours a night and the rest time I’m working on videos or
    filming stuff or doing something this morning I went and shot this property
    for some drone stuff this morning and then I edited a video for drone errs and
    then now I’m actually heading to North Carolina as I post this video to work on
    a new video in North Carolina for a couple days with slingshot and I’ll be
    back on Wednesday so it’s never ending but it’s awesome the way it’s going
    right now making money and being profitable in the market also
    making money with other things that I do and hopefully you guys are enjoying
    these videos so far if you are enjoying these videos make sure you subscribe to
    the channel if you think I’m full of crap leave a comment below it’s always
    fun to see those comments as well I will talk to you guys real soon hopefully
    this clears up some of the questions that people have asked over the last
    couple months what do I really do how do I even make
    money talk to you guys later

    🔴 What the Fed Rate Cut Means & How to Play It (w/Tony Greer) | Stock Trade Ideas
    Articles, Blog

    🔴 What the Fed Rate Cut Means & How to Play It (w/Tony Greer) | Stock Trade Ideas

    August 22, 2019


    Welcome to trade ideas I’m Jake Merle sitting down with Tony Greer Editor of the morning navigator Tony great to have you back on the show for having me man So we just saw the first rate cut in over a decade Powell. Just got done giving a speech and Personally, this is the first rate cut. I’ve seen. Yeah, I know I’m a student of the markets Just getting into the markets and I want to get your thoughts. Is this a good thing a bad thing? What’s going on? Yeah We should I guess we should set it up with some history since you’re student of the market right last time the Fed cut rates We were addressing The housing crisis, right? So we started off with Fed Funds at five and a quarter and wound up lowering that them to zero Over the course of I think just over a year and during that time the market got shellacked Right because the stock market was then can falling into the mortgage crisis. We were dealing with Excuse me. We’re dealing with Bear Stearns. We were dealing with Lehman Brothers going bankrupt the whole thing We had a much different economic background as well. You know, we had higher oil prices. We had oil prices up in 95 So we had higher interest rates at around four percent in the ten year. So things were much different, right? We were we were addressing then what was coming out of a crisis right now. We’re not coming out of any crisis, right? What seems It seems like a sort of smartly prudent rate cut to me believe it or not And this is a little bit of a change of opinion for me, right? I originally thought that Powell was 100% beholden to Trump for this rate cut, right? I mean he literally seemed optically like he was just Caving to the president pointing around the world saying being a complete baby the way he knows to be everybody else gets lower rates Why we have such high interest rates President Obama got zero interest rates for his whole ten-year Why do I have to have 3% interest rates, you know? So he conflates these stories out of nothing and starts putting pressure on the Fed Chairman and that’s when you know We saw even more of a dovish pivot but we saw that goal the dovish pivot go around the world and it was really in a reaction to a collapse in the Manufacturing sector, which was really evident like you can see them right go right around the world for Europe to China, you know We saw PMI stick down from either the mid 50s to high 50s To the low 50s and then some into the 40s now as you know that you know p.m Eyes, we judge economic expansion and contraction as being either north of south of 50 So we’ve seen Europe already go into economic contraction due to the trade wars right at this point We’ve seen the market falter right when we have fears of trade wars tipping Equity earnings over and having a negative effect on the economy. So what do we have every time we see that? The u.s. Gov to the rescue, right? Like we saw Steve minuchin back in December The government comes to the rescue says there’s going to be plenty of liquidity at all the banks and the market was manages to recover so the mat market gets back on its own feet and We go into earnings season and earnings start coming out positively and then the SP can continue to run from there So while it seems completely absurd that we are cutting rates with the stock market at an all-time high and with unemployment at 3.7 percent and with PMI, even at 51.7 indicating expansion and no sign of inflation. It does seem like preemptively a smart idea considering the ECB just turned full dove right after in response to their PMI is coming off if There’s no pivot by the Fed then we wind up with a you know widen the interest rate differential with us over a several other countries and probably a strengthening dollar right and in a really Super strong dollar is gonna hurt our exporters something that the president doesn’t want to me we can’t be the outstanding hawk on the planet right now because it would just Topple too much within the system which seems to be going along with just fine right now one of the things that’s interesting that Powell Said was that they’re not gonna change They’re not gonna cut the balance sheet down any more from here right to me that that’s directly addressing the fact That’s that’s for Trump. Right? That’s to say that okay Look, we’re gonna leave the balance sheet right where it is So that it doesn’t mess with the stock market the 25 basis point cut seems like it’s rational in response to p.m Eyes around the world coming down and US PMI coming back. So if we Fall below 50 and start seeing drag on economic data. They will look smart and have said, okay we’re a little bit ahead of this and As you would have expected He left the door open for another rate cut And the reason that he has to do that in my opinion There’s no way that the Fed can almost never anymore signal that they’re done for good cutting rates because then their risk is They say that they’re done cutting rates the economics of the u.s. Stay sideways too firm and the stock market backs off Now, what do you think? They’re gonna have to do if the stock market backs off? They’re gonna have to cut rates Are they gonna have to go there do something? So to me, it makes sense for them to say yeah that you know We will address as time goes by we’ll make it data dependent, but they definitely didn’t rule out another rate cut So it seems to me now as the markets go It seems like the equity market is probably gonna go by business as usual, right? I mean there’s a little bit of a dip today in response to It’s probably sell the fact type of response where we were expecting a quarter of a point We got a quarter of a point. Nobody knows really what’s gonna happen next So let’s probably take profits on the stocks that we’ve bought in the last three to six weeks at least right? So that move doesn’t scare me And nor it is it I’m not gonna be one of those guys that’s out there saying, okay Here comes the big tumble right rather I would be looking to posture myself to buy a dip in this environment if we get an SMP pullback – it’s moving averages I would certainly take a chance and look for the stocks that I want to get long and buy them Will that be the 50-day moving average 200-day? Yeah somewhere in there depending on how fast it gets there right rate of change is everything so if we fall down there and the next You know two sessions. I might be a little hesitant if it takes us two weeks To sort of back and fill into that area then I think it’s a good idea to you know Sort of do some shopping and get a little bit longer the stocks that you want to buy or put a new length on In stocks that you’ve been looking at and and have you had on your radar So I think that’s the way that I’m gonna play it. I’ve still got a fairly outsized bond short position on for me And I’m trafficking right now in IEF. That’s the seven to 10-year Treasury ETF My premise for the bond short was that interest rates had fallen too far? given the strength of the economy Right all of a sudden it seemed to me like the Fed was on hold and then they said okay we’re gonna respond to changes in market and we saw some economic weakness abroad and Bonds just went on a run and absolutely, you know knocked interest rates much lower across the curve But we’re still sort of being sensitive and I think that the Fed is also being sensitive to that curve Right because the big alarm that everybody watches is the three-month ten-year spread Three-month ten-year spread touched down at zero in March of this year When that spread touches zero agos inverted a recession has followed more often than not right So I think the Fed is saying, you know, we’re seeing numbers come off abroad. We’ve got this three months ten months three month ten-year spread as a little bit of an alarm going off in the office saying there’s usually Recession that follows this and so maybe they’re being prudent and following along with that narrative in their rate cut So the bond market to me This is going to be another test I mean since I’m in the 10-year part of the curve, I’m gonna talk about that But to me, this is gonna be the ultimate test of 2% in the 10-year I’ve been calling it the Battle of two percent right rates came from a high of about three and a quarter or so Came tanking down to 2% in the 10-year and so far we’ve been sideways, right? So I’m looking for more and more data in the US to sort of hold steady or Maybe even improve and to catch the bond market which has gotten overly overly optimistic and bullish off Sides to a point where the bond market has to sell-off and 10-year yields have to trade up higher So this isn’t a generational trade, right? This is just a feeling that the bond market is overbought Sentiment is overly bullish Everybody is positioned long And so let’s take a chance at fading that and seeing if the US economy stays sideways and we have a chance at rates Retracing to where they came from. So that’s basically the way I’m playing it It feels like stocks can probably hold the dip and go on rallying business as usual, right the Fang complex is still Driving the markets and you know performing fairly well So would that be a short-term trade or you bullish on the markets in general for more of a longer-term picture as well? Yeah, I mean You know my timeframes Jake are usually somewhere from you know Trading timeframes or a week to two months and investment timeframes are sort of three months to a year Maybe a little bit beyond kind of thing You know if you get lucky and something really continues to perform but for a bond trade This is something that’s very tactical right where I am, right? I You know yields fell to 2% I put the trade on at this level and Sort of when they break if bonds rally and break through 2% That’s where I get out So I’m not risking a large amount of money at all I just kind of waited for them to get to this level I sold Treasuries via the ETF and I’m gonna see what happens now, but Most importantly. Like I said, I think that the equity market can probably sustain this I feel like no matter What if there is another steep pullback in equities that we’re gonna hear from Steve minuchin again? I mean, they’re not gonna change the game plan at the White House or at the Treasury, you know The goal is the stock market to continue up into the right and it seems like President Trump continues to get his way So that’s my wrap-up. I mean as long as I Originally thought it was really Trump induced rate cut and now I feel like it might be just the prudent thing to do for markets and The thing about the balance sheet to me that’s saying that they don’t want to do anything. That’s gonna Cause anything to raise rates in any way? Which the balance sheet tapering could do and I think that’s sort of another throw in for Trump so that he can know that they’re not going to tamper with the balance sheet And so that’s where we are now I think it might be business as usual for stocks and I’m gonna keep fighting this bond short for as long as I can so we just saw Powell speak and actually the Dow fell about 400 points during his press conference as he was talking about This may be a one and done type of a rate cut and during a mid cycle But let’s say the data does stabilize and we don’t get more rate cuts Is it back to you know bad is good good is bad. How do you see it playing out then? It goes back to listening to what Trump wants quite honestly if you ask me I mean, I think it’s I think that the sort of bounce off of the lows You know when there was some iteration of Powell saying that we may be being a one-and-done rate cut situation I think that may have been coincident sold type of thing I’m really all about where the market closes on the day. And I think that once all is said and done today It will look just like a sell the fact sell-off in stocks where it’s nothing fatal But it proves to be a reason for stocks to pull back off the all-time highs, right? It’s not like we’re having a pullback from mid. It’s not like we’re plunging to lower levels We are simply having a pullback from the all-time high so You know in as much as the president wants to keep that going Say that it that the situation stabilizes the economy stabilizes and there’s no rate move in either direction If central banks around the world continue on their dovish path and lowering interest rates, you will hear from the president Pressuring the Fed right? And we’ve also got to see what happens with trade wars, right? Because the tariff war does not look like it’s gonna end anytime soon We just spent about a half of a year in a positive feedback loop in the stock market where the stock market rallied every time there was a sniff of talks about Trade tariffs and coming to any kind of a you know negotiation situation That turned out to be completely false, right? Like there are no there is no imminent solution to the rate talk. So in as much as this is something that continues on It continues to put pressure on European and perhaps the Chinese economy They continue to lower rates in response It would not be outrageous to watch the Federal Reserve have to pivot back dovish again and say you know what? We don’t want to be the outlier here because that’s what it’s become. You know, that’s what it’s become There’s no longer a the US economy is fine we don’t need to change rates right in the FOMC statement Powell actually mentioned things like the brexit and The debt ceiling as reasons for concern and that’s when I want to you know Grab the television screen and go are you kidding me? You know, that kind of thing is that rages to me? So we’re not managing our own economy with our own interest rates or our own currency within our own borders So it seemed like we should be most attentive to what’s going on here That’s not the case anymore so that’s why you’ve got to watch and see what’s going on around the world because it seems like the Powers that be or the central banks have done a pretty masterful job at managing Coordinated currency destruction, right? We’re all lowering rates around the world at the same time and it’s everybody in the boat so the dollar has been sort of the stock absorber, that’s right in the middle and sort of does it really rally meanwhile this and Existential battle going on on fin 2 it every day about whether the dollar remains a reserve currency or not You know, so to me the central banks are making it pretty clear that it’s gonna stay exactly where it is Especially if you have you know countries like Japan pinning rates to zero, etc, etc So that’s my view from here Jake And so there is a weak global growth. We’ve seen in Europe if you across the globe Are you worried about a recession here in the United States? Yeah only because I don’t want to blow off the bond market, right? That’s that’s my thing. I don’t know. I will never know. I am NOT capable of predicting All I can do is read the signals and look at history and decide if I want to trade on them, rhyming or not Right, so I’m really I don’t look out my window and feel a recession or I don’t see one, you know It’s still tough to get a steak reservation in New York City on a Tuesday night So maybe this isn’t a good place to look for a recession, etc But I don’t really see us slipping into one The way corporate earnings have been the way you know, it feels like the economy is hanging in there It feels like the technology side of the economy is really booming And now the transport side of the economy is starting to boom again while other sides of the economy are slowing down As long as the consumer remains strong which we’ve been and we’ve got exceedingly high consumer confidence across the board I don’t see it yet. I don’t see it yet I’m not gonna say that it’s not gonna happen and my eyes are wide open and I’m ready to trade it But I don’t see evidence of it yet I really don’t so we have to watch the spread and see if the bond market stays where it is with the three-month ten Ten-year spread either flat or inverted and to see if that’s proven the same as the last two times whereas after 2000 and 2007 where a nominal tea GDP took a tumble right after that But it doesn’t seem like we’re set up for the same situation because we don’t have two crises to put us out of anymore. So Unless there’s one that I’m not catching yet. All right, Cody. Thanks for breaking it down for us We’ll see how it plays out in months to come. Thanks so much for joining us. You’re welcome Jake. That was great you You

    Top 5 Stock Trading Books You Must Read
    Articles, Blog

    Top 5 Stock Trading Books You Must Read

    August 22, 2019


    – To be successful in trading, you need to absorb as much
    information as you can and take advantage of
    every educational resource. I think books are a great way to hone your skills and improve, and in today’s video,
    we’re gonna talk about my top five favorite
    trading-related books. (upbeat rock music) Hey, everyone, lead
    trainer with StocksToTrade, Tim Bohen, here. Gonna talk to you about my top
    five favorite trading books. I think books are a great way to really build your skills, grow over time, take advantage
    of that dead time, you know. Everybody has time where they’re waiting at the doctor’s office. They’re waiting for the Uber. They’re waiting for an airplane. They’re sitting on an airplane. Maybe waiting for that next class or commuting, whatever. Take advantage of that dead time. To really get better, you’re gonna have to maximize your time, and books are a great way to do that. My first favorite trading book, and it is my all-time favorite, is The Daily Trading Coach
    by Brett Steenbarger. One of the reasons I love it so much is number one, the content is great. Brett Steenbarger is a
    trading psychologist, really sharp guy, and the book is very well-written, but the best part is especially if you’re not
    necessarily an avid reader, what’s great about The
    Daily Trading Coach is it’s 101 chapters. All of them are probably
    five-minute reads, some less, maybe some a few minutes more. Even if you’re not a person that likes to read for hours a day, you can grab that book, again, while you’re sitting
    there waiting for a ride, waiting for the next appointment, and you can read one of these lessons. I think it’s probably the
    best trading book out there. Oddly enough, I had it on my Kindle, and Amazon would not let me
    highlight any more passages as I read that book. It maxed me out with
    the number of passages. So, definitely check it out. It’s one of the great ones, and read a lesson each day, and just keep repeating. My second favorite
    trading-related book is a, it’s a great book because it’s historic. The ending is a little sad, but it’s pretty wild to read and realize that something 80, maybe even 90 or 100 years ago still works today in 2018, and that is trading
    these fast-moving stocks. So, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is a story of Jesse Livermore. He was a, probably the most
    successful momentum trader ever. I think again, it was in
    the early 20th century. He made millions, lost millions, ultimately ended up committing suicide. That’s the sad part of the story, but the great part about it is he tells his journey
    through the bucket shops and really details what we do today. He would locate hot trends, you know, whether that be in cotton or grains, I mean some of these commodities that we necessarily don’t trade, well, they are still traded today, but in momentum lane, we don’t trade them, but the charts are there. The patterns are there. He would recognize hot sectors. I certainly believe if Jesse
    Livermore was around today, he’d be trading cannabis stocks. He’d be trading cryptocurrencies because he had his ear to the ground and knew what was hot, and it’s just really neat to see from a historical standpoint. Great book. You might not learn trading techniques, but it gives you great in-depth into the mind of a momentum stock trader. The third favorite book of
    mine is by Michael Covel. He’s a friend of mine. It’s Trend Following. This is a book that
    really helps and shapes a lot of my swing trading-type style. When I talk about swing trading, it’s more trading over multiple days and multiple weeks. Be sure to check out our other videos. We kind of talk about the difference between day trading and
    swing trading a lot, but it’s really that different mindset of instead of trying to be
    in and out the same day, you’re holding stocks
    multiple days, weeks, maybe months, or even years, and what Michael Covel
    talks about in this book is isolating those charts. It’s a great charting book, you know, if you’re looking, you know, if people talk about looking at charts, and you’re like, “Well,
    how do I read a chart?” It’s a great way to get started there and learn that knowledge. You know, the common mistake
    a lot of new traders make is they’re out too early. They take profits too early. You know, the old adage is, you know, the biggest mistake a lot
    of new traders make is they let their losses run, and they cut their profits early. Sounds funny, you know, you might think, “Who
    would let their losses run “and take profits too quickly?” I see it every day in day trading land and swing trading land. People let their losses grow, grow, grow, and the instant they see
    green, they take profits, and Trend Following is a great book to get you in that mindset of as long as you’re green on a trade, let it work. If you’re red on a trade, cut that loss quickly,
    and you’ll be, you know, that’s the way to be
    maximize your success. Small losses, big wins. Trend Following’s one of my favorites. Also, check out TurtleTraders
    by Michael Covel as a bonus. My fourth favorite trading-related book is The Psychology of Trading
    by Brett Steenbarger again. For sure, check out Brett, Google him He’s got a great blog. All of his books are great. The Trading Psychology, as
    well as Trading Psychology 2.0, where he did an updated version, it’s another one of those books where especially if you’ve got
    a little bit of experience. I recommend these books if
    you’ve been trading a while. I’m sure you could read
    them if you’re totally new, but when you’re really new, you’ve kind of gotta make the mistakes. It’s kind of like a baby learning to walk, and you realize when you run into things, you make these mistakes, and then you see that baby kind of learn from those mistakes, Trading Psychology reminds me of that, where as I was reading it, I’m like, “Oh, I’ve done that.” “Oh, I’ve done that.” And then he talks about
    solutions to those problems, so again, I say buy it
    today, both of them. They’re both great. Trading Psychology 2.0
    was the updated version, but for sure, if you’re a couple months or a couple years into this journey, and you’ve never read it, check it out, and you’ll be amazed at how it’s almost like as I read it, I’m like, “He wrote this book for me.” And I have a feeling a lot of traders ’cause again, trading is
    a business of mistakes. It’s a lot like baseball. You strike out a lot in trading, and there’s so many lessons in this book that can potentially be a-ha-type moments. The fifth book I think
    every day trader should have and swing trader, for that fact, is Japanese Candlestick
    Charting Techniques by Steve Nison. It is a, I would call it a little more of a textbook-y type book. Daily Trading Coach, very
    easy, very quick read, bite-size chapters. Japanese Candlestick Charting
    Techniques is a little dense. I consider it more of
    like a reference material, but I really think you should have it to recognize these chart patterns, to understand candlesticks. If you’re new to trading, you might be like, “Candlesticks. “What’s he talking about?” Those are the charts, the types of charts we look
    at as short-term traders. We don’t look at the
    traditional line chart you might see in the
    newspaper or something because we’re trading volatility. Candlesticks charts show
    you the high of the day, the low of the day,
    how far the stock went, where it opened, where it closed. It’s amazing the amount of information you can garner from a candlestick chart. Seasoned veterans like
    me and other day traders can look at a candlestick chart and instantly recognize
    that’s a bullish pattern. That’s a bearish pattern. That stock’s breaking out. That stock’s breaking down. It’s consolidating. So, it is a dense read. It is kind of expensive. Last I checked, it might
    be $70, $80 on Amazon, but I think it’s a reference material that needs to be on your shelf, accessible to pull out
    when you need a reference. And then as a bonus, I know it’s the top five favorite books, but the sixth favorite, as a bonus, is American Hedge Fund by Timothy Sykes. You know, I look back at my history, if you’ve read some of where my journey in trading, I was always interested in finance, literally since elementary school. Never made any money until I found Tim Sykes’ American Hedge Fund on Amazon roughly right when it
    came out about 2007, 2008. That’s when I discovered day trading these low-price stocks. That’s when I discovered short selling. I didn’t think you could even
    short sell low-price stocks until I read Tim’s book, and it’s an amazing journey. Tim’s got a pretty crazy story. This book details his starting out with $12,000 in high school, turning that into $1.65 million, trading on a boat back in the early 2000s when the internet access was
    nothing like it is today. He was traveling the world. He was still successful, and primarily shorting
    these low-price stocks. So, definitely check it out. It’s a great read. It’s a fun read, and it’s a great deal. The American Hedge Fund by Timothy Sykes. Thanks for watching our video. Be sure to comment below with any trading-related question. We love answering your questions. Also, like and share with your friends, and be sure to subscribe to be notified as soon
    as our next video hits, and if you’re looking to
    expand your trading knowledge, don’t forget to check out
    all of our other videos, and be sure to click the trial below. Check out StocksToTrade. I think it is one of the best, most rapidly advancing
    softwares out there. Be sure to check out our trial. (upbeat music)

    My Top Student Started With $1500*
    Articles, Blog

    My Top Student Started With $1500*

    August 21, 2019


    – What’s up, Tim Sykes
    here with Tim Grittani. Thanks for joining me!
    – Hey, of course. – This is like, what our
    fourth round table, fifth? – Fourth or fifth. – I don’t know.
    – We’ve done a lot. – We do these things because we just talk, there’s no script, there’s no planning. We just talk, and you can
    learn from our experiences. I think that you can learn
    a lot from his journey and my journey, and we see
    things a little differently. But there’s no one magic
    right formula in this game. Do you agree with that? – Oh for sure, yeah. I think I’ve said it before. I’m always amazed how every
    successful trader I know, no two do things the exact same way. Like everyone has their
    own favorite setups. There’s no secret formula. You find what works for
    you and you exploit it. – And this is what makes
    trading so difficult and teaching trading because Tim Grittani can show you everything that he’s done, and you just might not get it. I’ll show you everything I’ve done, and you just might not
    be like, this is weird. He is primarily a short seller these days. I used to be a short seller. I’ve gravitated towards buying. He can’t really buy that
    well, dip buys especially. – We’ve had opposite journeys because I started off almost primarily as a buyer, and now I’ve like gravitated more and more towards the dark side as you’d say. – I mean, I can’t stop Anakin. We know how it turns out. So it stinks, but. No, it’s not bad to be a short seller. It’s not bad to be a buyer. Why do think people have misconceptions where they’re like,
    you trade penny stocks? You should never buy it! All their fundamentals are terrible! – Well, I mean they’re right
    that all the fundamentals are terrible, but the
    horror stories you hear are people who buy them
    like lotto tickets, who believe in the technology, really. Who think like whatever the story is that it’s actually gonna go somewhere. – So I think it’s okay to buy penny stocks as long as you know the
    reason why you’re buying it, as long as you have a plan. Don’t just be like,
    oh, I hear this company has good technology, let me just buy it. Maybe it’ll work out. That’s the wrong way to buy. But if there’s a multi-month breakout with a catalyst, with strong volume, maybe there’s like five
    newsletters promoting it, that’s not a bad time to buy for a trade. – You just have to
    – Right. – Differentiate between
    trade and investment. – For sure, yeah, like I mean,
    I’ll buy those no problem. But I always have the mentality
    of, I’m holding a grenade. And I better get rid of it
    before it blows up in my face. – I like that. So think of every penny
    stock as a grenade, and especially short sellers, they love it because they’re waiting
    for the grenade to explode. – Oh, yeah, for sure, for sure. – They can’t wait! They’re like pull the pin! Pull the pin! Why do you think most people have problems with short selling as opposed to buying? Most beginners and newbies
    really favor buyer. – I remember, I felt like it was really complicated at first. Like just a weird concept
    to wrap your head around. You’re selling before you’re buying. And I really tried to
    think too hard about it. And I eventually got to the point where I was like, you know what? I’m just gonna click this button, and all I need to know is that
    I want the stock to go down. That kind of like simplified
    it for myself a little bit. And you probably do
    wanna get a little more into the details eventually, but at first, that’s about the extent
    of what you need to know as far as execution is concerned. And then, just remember to cut your losses because if you are a
    stubborn short seller, it might not happen today
    or tomorrow or next month, but eventually, your account goes boom. – So this is a big thing, where
    a lot of short sellers say, okay, every penny stock goes down. Why not just short and just hold it? Because, you gave an
    example the other day, we’re here in Rome, we’re
    teaching some students in person. If you wanna learn in person,
    email [email protected] But you basically said, look,
    if 99 of the 100 penny stocks go down, right, that one that doesn’t, and you keep averaging up
    on your short, you blow up. All it takes is one for you to blow up. So even if the situation works,
    again and again and again, that one time when you’re
    risking too much, when you keep averaging in and you keep
    taking a big position, that’s all it takes for
    you to lose everything. – Yeah, it’s funny, I can’t
    remember the ticker now, what that one was, but
    I remember the prices. Like it was 3.50 was high a day, and I thought I had put in
    a lower high, I short sold. And then it started to break past 3.50. I was out at 3.51. Like I am not playing
    around with that situation day one of a runner. – What took– – And it ultimately did top out 3.70 and then fade back off like all day. So the problem that I got
    into when I first started is I would kind of see that happen more times than not, and that
    reinforced the bad habit. So I was like, oh, I’m so smart. I’m not cutting the losses,
    and I’m getting a gain later. And then what was it
    maybe six months later is when my reckoning came on LAKE. And that was, you know,
    we’ve talked about it a lot, but almost negative 300,000. – Well, a lot of people
    don’t know your story. Just give a brief overview
    of what you’ve done. ‘Cause I know your story,
    a lot of people do, but some people they’re just finding you. And they’re like, why should
    we care what you have to say? – Okay, yeah, brief overview is started in, well, first
    trade was May 2011. $1,500 in my own money, but I had money borrowed from my parents to
    keep other accounts open. I was under pattern day trader rule. I wanted as many day trades as possible. So I had three brokers open,
    nine day trades per week, but the agreement with my parents was I only take $1,500 positions or whatever my current amount of the accounts are. I can’t actually trade their money. It’s just there so I get
    more day trades per week. – Gotcha. – And I mean, I, in the
    first six months of trading, up until November of 2011, I
    had blown up my 1,500 once. I had to refund, and I was
    just really struggling. And then– – Six months of nothingness. Just for those of you did–
    – And I had studied three months of video lessons before that. So you know, February 2011 is
    when I got into your Silver. – So people who think that like, oh, it’s gonna be so easy. The man took six months to screw up. – Yeah, and so it was from
    watching my first video lesson to like, okay, I feel like I’m starting to get consistent, that’s nine months. And when you’re starting to trade, especially if you wanna start full-time, you’ve really got to think, you know, everyone’s different, but like go in with a conservative estimate
    of like can I go a year without making money. And maybe even losing money. – Well, when did you,
    ’cause you were Silver and then you joined the challenge, when did you join the challenge? – Challenge was like August 2012. And at that point I’m at about 100K. – Okay, so you learned a little. You practiced a little, then
    you joined the challenge. Was the challenge helpful for you? – Yeah, it was, it was cool. I especially liked Goode’s webinars because back then I was buying pumps and that was something that
    Goode had done videos on and gotten really in depth into. – Gotcha.
    – So like I was already pretty good at buying pumps, but it helped me take some
    things a step further. – And the challenge FYI
    has changed a little bit over the years, now you get two
    to four webinars every week. Tim Grittani every now
    and then does a webinar. Mark Crook does webinars. Michael Goode does guest webinars. I do webinars, so you’re
    building on a lot of knowledge. Steven Dux who just passed
    two million in profits actually said that it’s
    easier to learn now because he has so many different
    strategies to learn from. You were, I mean this was
    when we first started. So you didn’t have that many people. You didn’t have that many resources. Have you seen how like the challenge has changed a little bit? – Yeah.
    – Like the challenge, challenge is really useful I think. – Yeah, I mean, challenge was grueling. Back when I was starting, like you know, it was basically you and
    Goode and Crook a little bit. But I also branched out
    into other services early, and I was trying to learn everywhere. And most of them I learned nothing at all. But I was able to take
    little bits and pieces from multiple different
    strategies and they kind of– – And that’s the key. Sorry to cut you off.
    – Yeah. – It’s so, so important
    to learn from everybody. Because there’s no one magic formula, you have to piece stuff together. And you might say, oh, I don’t
    like this guy’s strategy, but then you start getting used to it. We both changed. You were primarily a buyer;
    now you’re a shorter. I was primarily a
    shorter; now I’m a buyer. You evolve, and you adapt. And you see what feels right over time. So don’t feel like
    – For sure. – You have to trade any one way, and you have to stick with that strategy ’cause the market is always changing, and you can always be changing. – Yeah, I always say let
    your results guide you. It’s great to try out
    a lot of stuff early. But you’ve gotta do that with small size. Don’t try a bunch of stuff
    early and lose 10 grand. That’s insane. I tried a bunch of stuff
    early, and I lost 1,500. And that’s a very recoverable amount. I worked a summer job and
    made four grand that summer. So I didn’t even lose my summer
    earnings from State Farm so. – So this is a good point
    because a lot of people say, okay, how much should
    I trade with at first? And I think in Bali you said, what was it? 3,000, we did a 3,000. I think it was 3,000, I don’t remember. – Yeah, you know, I’m to the point now where I don’t even like to give a number. I just, it depends on you. It depends on your life situation. It depends on what you can afford to lose. But I really believe, keep the losses as small as possible early,
    because then you learn where you’re succeeding,
    where you’re failing. And then you can really hone in and attack the one area, or two areas
    where you’re the best. – I know this isn’t exciting
    information for you guys. You’re like, I want it now! I wanna go big! And we’re like, no, calm down.
    – Oh, yeah. – Look at his shirt, okay? Look at his shirt, it says Chill Out. That’s how you have to be,
    especially in the beginning. You have to chill out and just
    let the plays come to you. Because you have to understand,
    we’re trading penny stocks. There’s not a perfect
    play every single second. So if you’re learning to
    trade Facebook or Amazon, you can trade them every single second because there’s volatility. There’s pricing. I don’t recommend that. But with penny stocks,
    you have to wait for these really solid supernovas,
    these solid opportunities that don’t come about every single second, every single minute, every single hour. So a lot of your studying is not just what’s happening in real time, but studying from past setups. Have you studied the past a lot? – Oh, yeah, absolutely. – What do you, tell em about
    your spreadsheets for a second. ‘Cause he’s always doing
    these spreadsheets. I don’t do spreadsheets, but he does. – My spreadsheets, I basically do them just to try to answer questions. So for example, when I
    first got in NASDAQ trading, I had no experience there whatsoever. I had no idea what to expect. And I knew that I wanted to find, or I wanted to trade the
    most volatile ones though like a had been doing with penny stocks. So I just start by asking a
    question like, I would take the top percent gainers
    every day from listed stocks. – Yeah. – Maybe they were up 20% or more and the question I was asking was, how do these perform the next day? How do they perform on day two? And I wasn’t even looking
    for a setup at this point. I just wanted to answer that question. – Cool. – And that basic tracking showed me that the vast majority of the time, day two was a weaker day,
    although there were exceptions. And from there I could
    take it a step further, and then start trying to look
    for a specific strategies based on whether the stock had gapped up or down the next day. And there’s just a million
    different ways you can go. – So you’re creating a hypothesis and you’re testing it,
    testing it, testing it. – Yeah, by the end. It’s more like I’m asking
    questions and then trying to find answers to these
    questions to form a hypothesis. – Whoa, whoa, my bad! – Yeah, it’s good, it’s good. – I think that’s really good, and I think that a lot of people
    don’t really get that. They’re just like give me a hot stock, give me a good pattern to memorize. We get questions all the
    time like, what percent down do you need for a stock
    to be worth a dip buy? And I’m like, it’s not a specific percent. – It’s not about that yeah. – There’s different kinds of catalysts, like earnings winners, pump-and-dumps, what’s the overall market doing? What’s the float? How much is it trading? What time of day is it? Just explain your most
    commonly used indicators, your top five indicators. – I mean– – He has a whole DVD by the
    way called Trading Tickers where he explains everything. I highly encourage you to watch it. I’ll post a link just
    below this video, too. – Okay, so.
    – Explain some of your favorites. – Favorite indicators, I would say, major daily resistances on a daily chart. So I’m looking back on the daily chart. It’s a candlestick chart. – How long do you look back? – At least a year. But I’m looking back, I’m looking for days where there was huge volume,
    unusual volume spikes on the daily chart and where
    the stock failed on those days. – This is actually an important point. Sorry to interrupt, but
    if you’re looking back at key points, you want a lot
    of volume at those points. – Right for sure. – So if a stock just hits a
    a random number in the past, but there’s really little volume, it probably isn’t that significant because there’s not a lot of volume. There’s not a lot of people
    that cared about that number. But if there’s a huge volume day, and there was a day high, like that number really kinda sticks I think. – Yeah, I mean, other than that though, it’s basic support, basic resistance. I don’t really get into
    many in-depth indicators. I dabble with VWAP a little
    bit which is a value weighted average price I believe
    is what that stands for. But it’s not a huge part of my trading. It just helps me form a bias a little bit. And then, previous closing price, like green to red, red to green. – Why do you think so many
    people complicate things with, I’ve heard of 200 different indicators. – Oh, there’s a ton, yeah. And I mean, I think everyone is just looking for something that’s extra – Silver bullet.
    – That will give them an edge. Yeah, the silver bullet. And I’m not gonna say it’s not out there, because I’ve barely looked to be honest. But again, it comes back
    to what works for you. – Yeah. – So it’s cool, if you wanna try out lots of different indicators,
    definitely, by all means do it. But I wouldn’t try out five different indicators at the same time. Just take em one-by-one
    and start to get a feel for what is working for you,
    what you’re comfortable with. – You got Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD– – Moving averages, yeah. – Fibonacci retracements, Ichimoku Clouds, there’s so much up. I will say that the
    Fibonacci retracements, it’s like 38% off the high. Those actually do work
    because that there’s so many Fibonacci freaks out
    there that people value it. A lot of this is a
    self-fulfilling prophecy. So if enough people believe like, okay, stocks breaking out to 52-week highs, there’s a lot of traders
    who just buy that. So if everyone one is buying that, that pushes the stock price up. So you kinda wanna know what
    other people are looking at because that can influence the price. I will say, though, with penny stocks, this is kinda little trick where a lot of people see
    something pop on their scans like 52 week high or day high, but it’s only by a penny or two. It’s not a convincing breakout. And with penny stocks,
    for me to buy a breakout, I need convincing, ’cause
    I get faked out a lot. There’s a lot of fake-outs. The other day I was buying CHOOF. It broke out by one or two
    cents over three months, and then it came right back down. It was a fake out breakout. So how convincing of a breakout
    do you need before buying? How do you do with that?
    – I actually don’t need convincing because I’ve
    tracked breakouts enough, and I’m comfortable enough
    with breakouts where I’m just taking my shot. If it’s giving me the, and let’s be clear on what breakout is. When I say breakout, I am talking about a past daily level that’s significant. A big multi-day breakout, I
    don’t consider a breakout like, oh it’s breaking out
    past the morning’s highs. Maybe there’s some kind of
    play there, but that’s not the one where I feel like
    I have the major edge. So if I’m getting the breakout I like, the multi-day breakout, I’m taking a shot. I’ve tracked it enough where I know exactly what my risk should be. I know exactly what I’m looking for, how to handle it, and I feel like even though I’m gonna lose
    some of the time on them because no setup works 100% of the time. But I will absolutely come out ahead over 10, 20, and 30 times playing it. – Why did you not by CHOOF the other day? ‘Cause that was a multi-month breakout, but it was also midday. – So CHOOF, they had a couple things going against it for me. One was that I had been
    playing it last month when it was trying to
    breakout past the dollar area. And I think I had a couple trades that were break even-ish
    on it and then one loss. So it had already frustrated me, and I had already seen like, wow, this thing really kind of sucks on its multi-day breakout attempts. The other thing was that the nature of how it got to this breakout. It had opened the day at 90 cents and basically run straight up
    to the $1.10 breakout level with no pullbacks at all so.
    – That’s a big move. That’s a big move. – So that’s not really
    my kind of breakout. I have also seen that. The ones that have the
    big straight up spikes into a multi-day breakout level, usually fail the first time. So I was willing to let it have it’s little midday,
    multi-day breakout attempt. My plan for that was to not attack midday and if it had held back,
    or if it had held together on a pullback, consolidated,
    and then retested that, I think it was a 1.13 high that it set. Then sure I’ll go for it. But the first attempt there
    on a straight up spike, not really my thing. – So I forced that trade a little bit. It was my bad. But I controlled the losses. I lost three cents a
    share, roughly 600 bucks. The next day I made three
    times that, nearly 2,000. So, if you control your
    losses, guess what? It’s not that bad. They can be made back pretty damn quickly. The problem is when people say, oh, I’m in this stock. I might as well give it more time. I might as well, maybe I’ll even average down.
    – Yeah. – This is the worst thing. When you guys see a
    breakout, and it fails. So let’s say, just for example, CHOOF. You see it fail at 1.10,
    and it comes down to 1.04. And you’re like, well, it
    might not be a big breakout now but let me buy it at 1.04. Get my average down to
    1.07, then I can escape if it gets back to 1.10,
    and you make a penny or two. Why do think people like to do that? – Because there’s a certain thrill that comes with fighting
    a stock like that. Turning a loser into a winner. And that was another one of my problems when I took all my big losses. – ‘Cause then it can
    – Because you can get – just keep going.
    – a rush out of that. You really do, you feel so smart after. But again, it might work
    90 times out of 100. But 10 times you are
    gonna lose your position. – And it probably won’t
    work nine times out of 10. – No, probably not, probably not, yeah. – It’ll probably work 30 or 40%. So some of you guys do
    that, and you’re like, Tim Sykes told me to cut losses. But I didn’t cut losses,
    now I made it back. Forget you, Tim Sykes! And I’m like, but… – You learned the wrong lesson, yeah. – You learned the wrong lesson. And then they lose it big the next time. So they made one or two
    cents, and then they lose 10 or 20 cents the next time. So, there’s ways to make
    money that are good odds, and there’s ways to
    make money that are bad. And I know that’s confusing
    when you’re beginning, you’re just like, no,
    it’s just making money. I get messages like,
    you just like to lose. And I’m like, no, I like
    to minimize my losses. And I like to take high-odd setups. The multi-month breakout,
    especially on OTCs, I think works very well. One of my students, his name is Michael. He’s a NFL player. And he has gone from negative, I think he was down 3,000
    when he first began. Now he’s positive 5,000. That’s his pattern. Why do you think OTCs work so well with multi-month breakouts? – I think they’re a little bit less tied to the overall market. Whether the Dow was up or down on that day and stuff like that. OTCs really are just pure technicals so. – Yeah, no, I agree with that. And I like buying the first green day or like a breakout on an
    OTC better than a NASDAQ. Because like
    – I agree. – OTCs with momentum and
    volume, they can really run. They’re so speculative. They’re such like junky companies. They’re not even like
    real legit companies. So their stock takes a little longer. Like CANN, remember that one? – Oh, yeah. – It can just go up for
    like three, four, five, six days in a row, and double
    or triple penny by penny. They’re building the bid,
    they’re building the ask. It’s beautiful thing to watch when you’re long.
    – Yeah, oh it’s fun. – Like especially at
    the open the next day, where someone’s trying to buy, because the thing with OTCs,
    executions take longer. So if somebody really wants to buy, let’s say there’s 500 people who wanna buy an OTC stock right at the
    open, they can’t get executed. On a NASDAQ stock,
    they’ll all get executed within a few seconds. If there’s 500 people who wanna buy an OTC stock at the open, it might take five maybe even 10 minutes until
    the last guy gets executed. And meanwhile the market makers are just gradually walking the price up. – Yeah, especially if those buyers are using market orders. – And most people do
    because a lot of OTCs, they’re being promoted. They’re just being
    basically promoting a story. So they’re very I think bad fundamentally, but very good for trading
    vehicles if you know how it works. It’s very dangerous if
    you’re in an OTC overnight, and let’s say there’s bad news. And everyone is trying to get out. If there’s 500 people trying to get out and you’re one of them,
    you’re not gonna get out. So, you have to be very careful holding an OTC overnight I think. And if there’s a tidal wave of sellers, you’ll probably get at the
    bottom or towards the bottom. Have you ever done that? Have you ever been stuck in an OTC? – I have, yeah. – And how much did you
    lose, like what percent? – Well, I mean, it’s duck and halts twice. And those were like 80% losses. – But halts are bad. – That’s different.
    – Halts are very bad. – That’s different. It’s funny actually, I
    was telling this story at the little meetup the other day. – Inner Circle. – Inner Circle, yes, Inner
    Circle, that’s right. – Posted link just below if you wanna learn in person at my Inner Circle team. – One of my early losses that was like the beginning of the end for
    that first $1,500 account of mine, I had been basically
    playing promotions overnight for gap ups because I was tracking awesome penny stocks back then. And every time they had a green candle it was always gap up like
    three to five percent or more. And so I got in this habit of buying these awesome penny stock pumps, selling them the next, like
    right at the next morning at opening and then making a few percent. I was like, okay, this is awesome. This is fun. And I hadn’t really learned the lesson yet that not all promoters are created equal. So, I had bought some random promoter who had had a green day
    and instead of gapping up the next morning, they gapped down. And it has so much less liquidity than an awesome penny stocks pump. So I got stuck in the panic. I lost $250 which at the time was my largest loss ever by far. And it was just like
    an enormous gut punch. But, yeah, I mean, it happens. And it can be really frustrating trying to sell into weakness. – I just thought of something. You were explaining your story when you started with
    1,500, and you explained it. I got off track. How much are you now currently up as we’re doing this interview? – This week I passed 6.7 million. – In profits.
    – Right. – From $1,500 of your own money, some money borrowed from your
    family to get to like $13,000 to open brokerage accounts. How do you think other people can achieve this over many years? – You can’t rush it that’s for sure. – It’s damn tough, okay. – Yeah, damn tough.
    – I don’t want to think, oh, I can make 6.7. I’ve only made five million. I think part of what helped me is I didn’t have a goal in mind. I wasn’t like, oh my God, I’m gonna be a millionaire by next year. I was just taking it a day
    at a time, a trade at a time. My goal was just to be able
    to do this for a living. I didn’t care if I was
    making 100 grand a year. I just wanted the freedom
    that came along with it. And to not go back to
    working 40-hour weeks in an office and being bored to death. – I see that you spend a
    lot on your clothes, though. So you have to really make
    enough money to afford that. This is a custom Mickey Chill Out shirt. I think I saw this at
    one of the tourist shops. I think was like eight euros. So you obviously had some goals to afford such designer clothing. – Right, yeah, yeah. Obviously clothing is
    very important to me. – I like that.
    – But aside from the patience, aside from the patience
    what really helped me was, you just talked about Michael. I think it was him who said,
    it seems so counterintuitive but the less he traded, the
    more he started to make. – Michael Goode or Michael Huddy? – Michael, ex-NFL Michael. – Oh, okay, other Michael.
    – Yeah. – We have a lot of
    Michaels in a lot of teams. – Yeah, yeah, I think he said that, and it really echoed my
    thoughts so perfectly. Because that was my turning point, where I did have all
    that time trying to trade 10 different setups, and I
    blew up my $1,500 account. But I learned from it, and I was able through all that overtrading I did, I still was able to see,
    okay, I’m doing well with this setup and this setup. And okay, I’m getting
    killed at short selling, so let’s just cut that out for now and not short sell anymore. And I focused in on just
    the two I was best at. And that was it. I would go two or three
    days without making a trade. And that was fine with me
    because when my pattern came along I was ready and I attacked. And did it always work? No, but it worked more than it failed. And that’s what dug me out of the hole. And that’s how I was able
    to start leveraging up, and scaling up my position sizing. And it’s just been really
    just doing that process over and over again with different setups. Trying different things. Some things work, some things don’t. And cut out what doesn’t,
    stick with what does, and push it as far as you can. – How do think people
    can be more selective? ‘Cause everyone says, oh, be selective, wait for the best setups. How do they find what the best setups are? – The best setup for me,
    it’s all pattern-based. Catalyst matters a little,
    but I don’t go into a morning saying, oh, this stock
    said it won a contract. I’m gonna buy it because of that news. No, I look at the chart. I know, okay, this stock
    said it won a contract. But then I see what the daily chart says. I see what the float is. I see a number of technical things that tell me whether there
    might be a trade there or not. You have to understand what
    the setup you’re trading is. You have to like, every
    single person I think, should have a journal of their trades. And say, it doesn’t have
    to get that in depth, it doesn’t have to be anything crazy. But just say how much you made or lost. What the date was, what the ticker was, and what was the setup
    you were trying to trade. You have to be able to
    answer that question. What was the setup I was trading? And then after you’ve
    traded for a month or two, you can look at this nice history of trade results of yours, and you can see specifically which setups
    are you best or worst at. That’s how you figure out the best setups for yourself to trade. – So they just need to test. – You need to test. You need to test and test
    small, so that you don’t kill yourself early
    when you’re doing this. – So this is it. So what do you think, I
    mean, obviously testing, tinkering, refining, what do you think people do the worst in your experience? ‘Cause a lot of people ask you questions. What’s the biggest problem that they have? – Getting discouraged
    too easily, honestly. There’s this conception out there that if you take a loss
    you did something wrong. And that’s not true because
    we’ve said it already during this sit down here that sometimes setups just don’t work. There’s a huge difference between, oh, the breakout failed, and
    I had to cut the loss, and oh, the breakout
    failed and then I held and then I added and then I
    held longer and then I took a loss five times as big
    as it would have been if I had just cut when the setup failed. – So there’s different
    ways to take losses. Some losses can be good. I know this is gonna
    get a lot of blow back. Some people are gonna be
    like, you’re just a loser. That’s why you like losses. But sometimes you’re gonna be wrong. And if you accept that,
    and you minimize the loss. And you lose one, two,
    three, four cents a share on a dollar stock, it doesn’t matter. You can make it back so quickly. It’s that stubbornness when
    you refuse to have the loss ’cause your ego doesn’t wanna let’s say, some people get on streaks. Like, oh, I’ve won seven trades in a row. Or I have won 18 trades in a row. Your streak doesn’t matter! Your streak does not
    matter in the long run! It matters how much you
    make over time, not streaks. I would rather win 50% of
    the time and make $10 million than win 100% of the time and make $100. Okay, there’s some people
    that are like, I’m perfect! I’ve never made a loss,
    but is it scalable? Is it repeatable? Can you actually execute these orders? Especially if you make a lot
    of money on paper trading, you’re like, oh, I just
    short sale all of these. On paper trading you can do that. In real life, you have to find a borrow. Sometimes when you do find
    the borrow, it keeps going. You have to pay daily
    fees for those borrows. That adds up. So short selling is a lot more difficult in real life than on paper trading. – It can be yeah. – What do you think about paper trading? Should people do it? – I don’t like it. I really don’t. I think you’re a lot better off, and you’re gonna get some more value out of trading real
    money incredibly small. Because paper trading,
    there’s no emotion at all. When you actually have something at risk, that really makes it real trading. – I agree with that. So I talk with a lot of people, and I say look, trade with
    100 shares or 200 shares. You’re not gonna make anything. You’re not gonna lose much. But at least you get in the habit. And paper trading is good, I will say, for people who don’t have any money. Some people are like,
    I just have no money. I wanna learn. So that way you can still practice, even though it is only
    a partial education. But it still gets you in the game. – Well, you know, if you’re
    gonna do that though, get an actual paper trading software. I know there’s some
    brokers that offer that. Before I started, you
    know, that three months I was watching video lessons, I was like the classic example
    of a bad student at first. My idea was I wanted
    to follow your alerts. I was excited by the idea of, I can just buy when Tim buys and sell. – Never follow my alerts! Never follow anybody’s alerts! You must be self-sufficient. I share the alerts to help
    you plan in real time. – So I sort of mentally
    paper traded your alerts during those three months. And I would track in a spreadsheet, so I wasn’t actually
    even pushing any buttons, having to deal with
    getting real executions. And I think I was six out of six! It was incredible! Then real trading hit, and I was down a couple hundred bucks really fast. – Yeah, don’t follow alerts from anybody. – Ever, never. – This is so, so, so important. But at the same time, don’t ignore alerts. I share them with you because I also have learned that they are the best tool for helping you plan in real time. You need to come up with your own plan. And to see it in real time, ’cause it’s not just
    about the alert from me. I set up a watch list. I do commentary, usually my trades are predicted ahead of
    time in the chatroom. I’m like, if this stock crosses
    this level, I’ll be buying. If this stock has a first
    red day, I’ll be shorting. It’s all about recognizing the patterns as quickly as possible
    as they’re playing out. It does me no good; it does you no good to be like, oh, I saw that two days ago. I knew what was gonna happen. And then you’re like a hindsight trader. A lot of people think
    that trading is so easy, and they’re just judging
    based in hindsight. Can you do it in real time? Can you see the play ahead of time? That’s what I think is best about you where a lot of the time you are planning this stuff ahead of time and seeing how the trade
    plans out and then guess what? You can execute ’cause
    if you see ahead of time, you can execute in real time. – Yeah, because that is
    one of the hardest things. Because you learn about
    multi-day breakouts, let’s say, and you are seeing a chart
    at the end of the day and how it played out. You’re seeing that
    entire day in an instant. Whereas when you’re buying a breakout in the moment, you might have to sit through an hour of choppiness. You’re not used to that. You’re thinking, it’s a breakout! I should be up a lot of money! And it takes time. So that real-time experience and actually seeing what it feels like
    for a pattern to play out. That’s just so valuable. – What about also you
    mentioned during the choppiness of a breakout, how do you, I mean, I’m, just fair warning, I’m not good at holding through the choppiness. I look for that quick breakout. If it doesn’t give me the breakout, I’ll take the loss of three
    cents like I did on CHOOF. Or I might sell for a penny or two, and then the stock will run. How do you hold through that choppiness? Teach me, too. – Okay, I mean like,
    again, this where tracking comes in so handy because, so early on, I was tracking breakouts. That was one of my first
    really solid setups. And I had learned that
    from one of your DVDs. I’ve seen it in your video
    lessons ’cause there was like one a year.
    – Penny Stocking Part Deux? – Yeah, yeah, it was that one. It was one of your favorite
    setups at the time. I think it’s still might be.
    – Yeah, yeah, yeah. – But you had always said,
    oh, so the stock breaks out, and then the resistance becomes support. And I expected that to be perfect. So I found myself getting
    shaken out of a lot plays. Maybe I’d buy a stock at a
    dollar on a multi-day breakout, and then it pulls back to 98 cents. And I’m like, oh, shit! It’s under that dollar. It’s failing! Resistance didn’t become support. And I cut the loss, and
    then it runs off without me. So, I tracked these for a while and started see that there
    was so many succeeding that didn’t perfectly hold with
    the original breakout level. They did tend to shake just
    a little bit below the level and then continue onwards. So that tracking helped me see, okay, I’m not using a good risk level. I really should probably
    risk off of what was the previous entry day support before. – Got you. – And so, that tracking
    gave me the confidence to be patient and be
    confident that I’m using a risk level that makes sense. – So this is what Tim
    Grittani does so well. He cuts losses intelligently
    as opposed to me. I cut them quicker. I cut trades quicker than, I don’t think, do you know anybody who
    cuts trades quicker than me? – I don’t think so. – Like a solid trading plan. But for me I think that’s
    good for newbie traders. ‘Cause you do have some
    bigger swing losses, some bigger swing losses, and
    some much bigger swing gains. – For sure. – You must be willing to
    lose, I don’t know what? 10% sometimes, 7%? – Yeah, like I honestly don’t
    even think about the percent. I’ll never be sad that I took a 20% loss. I’ll be sad if I took a larger dollar loss than I was supposed to
    based off of my risk. – But at the same time, taking
    a five, 10, maybe even 20% loss opens the door to
    100, 200, 300% winners. How long did you hold CVSI for? – Two or three weeks. – And what were you in at on average? – I was in at like 96 cents I think. – And what’d you sell it at on that one? – I sold it at 2.35 maybe. – So he more than doubled
    his money holding this stock, CVSI which is a sketchy stock, okay? Big time patience. How much did you make on that trade? – That was $212,000 I think. – So I would never have done that. And that’s okay. That’s not a play for me. I might have bought the breakout one day and made my 10 or 20%, but he held on for what is that 140% gain, 130%? – Yeah, but the was a
    really unusual trade for me. And that was actually one of my rare ones where I had some fundamentals
    I was factoring in rather than just the charts I have. – Yeah, yeah, yeah. But you still had the basics.
    – Usually on a breakout my patience is like a max of two days. – But you still had the patience. – Well, yeah in that case.
    – Give yourself a little more credit.
    – In that case, okay. – You gotta quarter of a
    million dollar nearly profit on that, so that’s worth it. When should people not have patience? – When your risk level’s breached. And this is again, where tracking comes in because if you track your trades enough and see enough times, oh,
    my risk level got breached, but then the trade went in my favor, then that might tell you something. That might tell you you’re
    not setting smart risk levels. So then you adjust and
    then you do start setting risk levels that are a little bit smarter. But the second that risk
    level is gone, you’re out. That’s how it’s gotta be. And that’s exactly how I trade now. Because you might get away
    with it every now and then if you don’t do that, but you
    open the door to catastrophe. And those losses are just
    so emotionally devastating, financially devastating,
    and I just never wanna put myself in that position again. – And just to quickly explain, how much did you make,
    roughly in the past week, since we’ve been here in Italy? – Well, since we’ve been in Italy, we’ve been traveling
    for like two weeks now. – Since we’ve been here in
    the past five trading days. – The villa, okay, the
    past five trading days, was about 105, 110,000. – In profits? – Right. And I had a red day on Friday. Friday was like minus 2,500. So a little red day, but it’s great. I’m cutting my losses, and
    I’m not giving back my week. – And I think it’s important to note that even when Tim Grittani is trading. You turn off your profit and loss column. You don’t wanna see it
    ’cause you just wanna focus purely on the chart,
    purely on your risk levels. If it brings that risk
    level then you’re out. If it holds onto it, then
    you’re gonna give it patience. – Right, but part of the
    reason I can do that too though is because I’m thinking about
    when I’m buying the stock or shorting the stock,
    how much size I’m taking. I have an idea of how much I lose if my risk level’s
    breached, so I’m not just completely ignoring it.
    – Completely blind. – Yeah, like yeah.
    – I gotcha. – What’s your risk level? – My risk level is based
    on a key resistance or support on the chart. – No, I mean dollar-wise. – Oh, dollar-wise? Most trades, $5,000 max. – Okay. – There are some really special ones that come around every now and then where I’m willing to go
    bigger, like 10, 15, 20,000. But those aren’t very often. – But just think about this, for somebody who has made
    millions and millions of dollars his maximum risk level is, you know– – Usually 5,000. – Arguably a few thousand dollars. So just think about that for a second, because a lot of you guys
    have 10, 20, $30,000 accounts, and your risk level is
    losing $5,000 which is wrong! You should never risk losing 30, 40, 50% of your account on one trade. – And I see confusion about this. Risking $5,000 for me doesn’t mean I’m taking $5,000 positions. It means, if I stop out of this trade, my loss will be $5,000. – Gotcha, but why do you
    think people are so aggressive with their overall account? – I think early on you just
    wanna make more faster. I was aggressive early. I kind of told myself I had to be. And that just wasn’t true. – I used to go all in. So I’m not the best guy to judge. I would never tell you
    to go all in these days. I have become very
    conservative in my old age. I think that you can get
    aggressive later on in your career, like you’re year six,
    year seven of your career. You’ve seen a lot of plays. You’ve experienced big gains. You’ve experience big losses. You’ve been around. When you’re first beginning,
    you just don’t know how fast these stocks can
    surge if you’re short. And you’re not comfortable
    with how quickly they can drop if you’re long, especially if you’re long in OTC. So you just can’t judge properly and that I think opens
    the door to bigger losses, confusion, frustration, disappointment, the whole 12 steps of depression. – For sure. – That’s what you’re opening the door to. And it’s not because the market is bad. It’s not because trading is bad. It’s not ’cause this is a scam. It’s ’cause you have
    the wrong preparation. You have the wrong perception. How do we fix that? – I mean, we can only do so much. We repeat I think every
    time we sit down together. – We do, we do. And in different
    locations, so we have done interviews if you search
    interviews, we did one in Vegas. We did one in British
    Virgin Islands on the yacht. – Yeah, that’s right. – We did one in Bali. We did one in, where was that other, not on the yacht but on land? Were we on Saint Martin? – Yeah, Saint Martin.
    – Saint Martin. And then we did another
    one some other time. I lost track so, we’re doing
    this all over the world. Literally, we go all over the world. We’re very fortunate. We did one early on in the Maldives when he first got 100,000.
    – Oh yeah, I did. – So we’ve done this in like seven things. The rules don’t change, okay? It’s kind of cool. Maybe we’ve refined them, maybe
    we’ve followed them better. Nothing really is new here. You’re not learning something new. That’s why some people are like, is a video from two or three
    years ago still relevant? Yes, yes it is! The rules don’t change. But how do I get through
    to these people more? ‘Cause you see it, and it’s frustrating. You just stop answering DMs. – I overwhelmed myself.
    – You gave up on the Q and As. – I didn’t give up on anyone, no. It’s just that I just
    started thinking more about how I wanted to spend my
    time outside of market hours. – That’s good. Stop freaking bothering this guy. He’s already busy enough. He’s trying to make more money. I want him to be more successful. Ask me, pile the questions on me. I have a team. I’m already insane, so I
    have no sanity to lose. – One question I get a
    lot that frustrates me is – It’s true. – How do I be more disciplined? And that’s something that
    neither of us can tell you. That is completely internal, do you agree? You’ve gotta take it upon yourself to do the right thing over and over again. – We can teach you the rules. We can teach you the chart patterns, but you’re the one clicking the buttons. It’s up to you. I’m not gonna be come to
    your home and be like, here push this button right
    now and hold your hand. You need to internalize this. You need to take all this
    in, maybe takes some notes, and then employ it and
    put it into practice. – One thing I guess I
    can say that helped me, when we were talking to
    the students the other day. I was talking about how that
    early point in my career when I lost the $1,500
    and refunded, that sucked, but it wasn’t really that
    low of a moment for me. Or I really didn’t take it too hard. Because I felt like had an
    idea of how to move forward. And I was saying that the
    lowest point in my career was I literally had about a one-year span, I was already up a couple
    million dollars at this point, but I had about a one-year period of time where I netted out to break even, ’cause I was going through this cycle of a few profitable months,
    lose it all in one big loss. A few profitable months,
    lose it all in one big loss. And that was for me my lowest moment and my most frustrated
    I’ve been with trading because it was a discipline issue. And it was a mistake that
    I thought one $290,000 loss would teach me my lesson, and
    I would never do that again. – Yeah. – And I did it four times. – Yeah, yeah, yeah. – But then I was like–
    – But your losses reduced every time, it was 290.
    – Well, they reduced, but it was still the same mistake. And it still was happening,
    and it still was way more than I should be losing on a trade. And I felt like I was like, oh, my God. Where’s my self-control? How do I keep letting this happen? So I guess if I am gonna say one thing that could help with
    discipline and what helped me was trading psychology books. I read The Daily Trading
    Coach by Brett Steenbarger. Fantastic book, and the key idea I pulled from that book was to track my losses where I made a mistake. So not the losses where, oh, the setup just didn’t work, but the losses where either I played it too
    large from the start, I didn’t cut a loss, I added
    to a loser outside of my plan. And having it actually, not on paper, but on a
    spreadsheet, physically seeing it, and tallying how many
    times I made these mistakes in a month, that gave me
    something to work towards. Like, okay, this month, I
    didn’t cut losses five times. Next month, I’ve gotta beat that number. And that was huge, and
    that brought me back. And I really haven’t had
    problems with that since. – He also wrote The Psychology of Trading which is a great book. I’ll post links just below this video so that you can read them. I’ll talk about my lowest
    point where I frankly lost $500,000 plus on a longer-term investment. I didn’t realize the difference between longer-term investing
    and trading at the time. I bought into an illiquid penny stock. I couldn’t get out even if I wanted to. I got stuck. I was actually right about the technology, print-at-home ticketing
    turned out to be a big thing. The company went bankrupt. I lost all my money. All the money in that investment. I lost roughly 35% of my hedge fund. But it was a gut punch to me. I lost all my industry credibility. If you read about me on the Internet, people still talk about this even though this was over a decade ago. It forced me to learn rules. And that’s why I think losses are good. So if you are losing, or
    if you do have big losses, it forces you to reevaluate everything. No one reevaluates when
    they’re succeeding. Even if they could be succeeding more, let’s say some people out there are like, oh, I’ve made $2,000. And I’m like, well, if you studied, you might have made 10,000. But they don’t wanna reevaluate ’cause they’re still winning. Losses can become your best teachers ’cause they force you to look at yourself. They force you to be like,
    I don’t want this anymore. – I don’t know if I’ve
    ever asked you this, but did any part of you wanna
    quit after that happened? – 100%
    – Yeah? – I drank a lot. I was really down on myself. But the thing that saved me was that there was still more and more plays. So even though I had lost
    roughly 35% of my money, I was like let me try to
    get back on the horse, and when you try to get back on the horse, you don’t go all in. You don’t go big like
    you’re like, is it broken? Is my luck out? I didn’t even know that
    I had rules back then. I didn’t have it all crystallized. I was just like this pattern. No one had taught me, I’m self-taught. So that kind of sucked. But I started going back
    into the trades that fit my patterns, and I started
    making money more than losing. And I was like, okay, the
    world isn’t so bad, you know? As time passes, as you
    see more and more plays, you start to realize, there’s
    always gonna be plays. – Oh, yeah. – Whether it’s every day or every week or every month, I mean different markets have different opportunities. – For sure. – But that gradually
    got me out of my funk. And then, because I had lost
    all my industry credibility and so many people were talking negative, that made me even more pumped. So I appreciate the haters. I appreciate the doubt
    because then I was like, I started getting angry. I started like, you know, like people were saying, I had my TV show
    Wall Street Warriors had just started airing. Right as my fund lost 35%, and everyone was like, oh, your TV show ruined you. They didn’t know that I was already in the investment before the TV show. It was just a tiny displacement. TV takes like nine months to air. So I was really angry that people were saying these things that were inaccurate. And then when the TV show started
    airing people were saying, you can’t short sell penny stocks. This is illegal. My broker says you’re a criminal. And I was like, you just
    have find shares to short. So, a lot of things
    happened all at once for me. But aside from the TV, aside
    from the industry stuff, I saw the plays, and I kept making money more times than not. And then I restarted with $12,000. I went into the teaching. Everyone thought that like, no one goes from hedge funds to teaching. There was a Reuters article,
    Failed Hedge Fund Manger Tries Again on the Internet. But then I became the number
    one ranked trader on Covestor. I turned the 12,000 into 200,000, so I think that you get a lot of confidence from the process. From correctly applying these rules and just succeeding over time, even if it’s not as
    quick as you might think. Like $12,000 to $230,000 sounds amazing, but it took me three
    years to do that, okay? Showing every trade and building up my blog and stuff like that. So you have these delusions
    of grandeur I think where people think oh, I’m gonna make 6.7. And when he’s made 6.7 million, like he just said, there was
    a year where he did nothing, and that was after he had
    already made millions. So it’s not like, okay, you made nothing for the first nine months then life has been easy ever since. You have to constantly be adapting. There will always be up and down periods. You made nothing for a year,
    but maybe you would have lost. What if you had lost a million after making three or four million? – Yeah. – That’s gonna happen sometimes, too. You’re not just a grandmaster,
    and you know everything. And you’re like, Neo
    and you can just fight Agent whatever-his– – [Man] Smith. – Agent Smith is that his name? – Yeah, Smith, Smith. – At the end and he’s like I
    can see the code and it’s just. Like he’ll never lose
    against Agent Smith again. How do you always adapt? – I mean, you’re just constantly working. Constantly trying things.
    – Well, if you have the right mindset. – Yeah, yeah, like– – So you can never get, you
    can never just take a year off? – I mean, you could I guess,
    but you’d kind of have to have the start from scratch
    mentality when you came back. Ease your way back in, see what’s working, see what’s not, I’d be tracking for sure when I start up again. – But you have taken
    weeks and even months off. – I have, yeah, I’d like,
    – How do you do that? – I was on a boat all of January. I didn’t trade. – Tough life!
    – I didn’t have Internet yeah. – How do you do that? How do you come back from time off? I wanted to ask you that. – Slowly, usually. Because I don’t wanna have a long break and then come back and lose a bunch of money in the first couple of days and then put myself in a really nasty mental situation where
    I’m like, oh, my God, I’ve gotta make this back. – So think it’s kind of like an athlete who gets injured, and
    then they’re coming back from like Tommy John surgery of something and they don’t come back, and they’re like an All-Star immediately. They have to get confidence. They have to go to rehab every day. – Yeah, yeah, I eased my way back in for sure.
    – Physical therapy, yeah. – Every time I take a break,
    I ease my way back in. – Gotcha, so what do
    you think about people who maybe have taken a break, and they can’t get back into it? What is their problem? ‘Cause I get this message a lot. – Well, like can’t back into it how? – They can’t find their groove again. Maybe they made money in the past. – Oh, like they come
    back, and they’re getting chopped around, they’re not making much? – Yeah, they’re just like, you know what? I had it once, and they thought it would be like riding a bike. And they thought that
    they could come back, but what are they doing wrong? – I mean, market conditions do change. So, I think that you can either hang your head and give up and say, oh, the market’s hard now. Or make a spreadsheet, track a setup. Look for a new angle. And just trade small til
    you start to figure out what your edge is again. – So that was my point. That’s what I was going for. You don’t have to go all in, and first of all, should never go all in. But you don’t have to go back to taking full positions right away. You can modulate. This isn’t like a casino. Like casino’s black or red. You double your money,
    you lose everything. Whatever, it’s very simple, it’s binary. With this, let’s say
    before, you were buying a thousand shares, and not
    even if you took a break, but let’s say, maybe you took a loss, and your confidence is shaken. Before you were buying
    10,000 shares on every trade. You can by 500 shares and see how it goes. You can take a 5% of your
    former position size, and then maybe if you get confidence and start taking 10% of
    your former size, maybe 20%. Maybe you try a pattern,
    and it’s not working. So forget about taking time off. Forget about any losses, let’s just say you’re riding high, and you’re doing well, you’re doing well, you’re doing well, and then you stop doing well. This is what happened to me in year 2000. I made $700,000 plus my first four months when the NASDAQ was
    going from two to 5,000, just buying penny stock breakouts. The last eight months of the year, I lost 10,000. There were no more breakouts.
    – Wow. – I forced myself to adapt,
    and I learned short selling. And then I made a few hundred
    thousand in 2001, 2002. So you always have to adapt, and I wish you could talk about
    that just for a second. How often do patterns change? How often do you have to adapt? – Oh, pretty often, I mean, I
    was primarily an OTC trader. And OTCs were great up until all the major promoters got shut down. Then we had that little
    brief weed stock boom, and then there was like
    just a six-month winter. – Yeah.
    – Like nothing. Like OTC scanner was like,
    I’d never seen it before, but I had no stocks on my OTC scanner. – And right now there’s
    not that many OTCs. – It’s kinda slow right now, too, yeah. – But NASDAQ is on the rise.
    – They come and go in waves. They come and go in waves. – But NASDAQ is crazy right now. And we’re filming this in the summer. Each of the past what, three summers has just been like crazy.
    – Yeah. – Usually you can take
    like July or August, like really wind it down. Every day there’s like 100
    or 200% winner, it’s crazy. – Yeah, even if you have your niche, with two or three setups
    you’re really comfortable, and I always encourage,
    learn a fourth on the side. Have something to fall
    back on if things get slow. That’s super important. To jump back to your point about you do go through those
    periods where you struggle and easing back in after
    that or learning a new skill, we talked about my year-long period where I really made no money. I had to ease my way back in after that. I documented this whole thing on YouTube. I did maybe 10 months
    worth of monthly recaps where I sized myself down so far. – How did your ego take that? How do you handle that?
    – It was hard. It was difficult because I went down to I can lose no more
    than $1,000 on a trade. That was the number I gave myself. – And what were you before? – Before, well, before I don’t think I’d thought of risk quite
    that black and white. That was part of my problem was that I was so much of a gun slinger. And I’d seen so many
    times where I was like, oh, I just got stubborn, but it worked! – What was the tweet that I
    remind you about all the time? – That I was gonna drop
    the hammer on LAKE. – He was like, this is make-or-break. I don’t care what the stock does. I am betting against it. Time to drop the hammer. And I think I texted you or what, and I was like, whoa, whoa! Calm down! – You were worried for me. – Never drop the hammer. Never drop the soap in jail. Come on, you will get screwed. I don’t want that. So how do you come back
    from that flawed mentality? – Slowly, it really is slowly. And it took a lot of
    discipline because I did have to size myself way down. And it was hard for me
    because it was about practicing good habits. It was about correcting all those mistakes in my loss journal that I was keeping. And every month that I improved. I was allowed to size up a little bit. Those were my rules for myself. But I think it was January of 2016, one of my first months in this process was like a $10,000 month for me. And I had, I think my
    best month in my career up to that point was $290,000. So that is mentally difficult
    to step back like that. – Yeah. – But it was about the process. It wasn’t about the money. And now the process, I’ve had
    a couple $400,000 months now. – I’ve seen that! You had two what, two $400,000
    in a month, two back-to-back. – November and December during
    that whole Bitcoin craze I think I had a $500,000
    month and a $400,000 month. And then June was just a $400,000 month. – Gotcha.
    – But– – And you took months off. How many months have you
    taken off this year already? You took two off? – Like 1 1/2 or two, yeah. – 1 1/2 or two and you’re already what up this year, like 1 1/2? – I think that I’m like
    over 900 now, $900,000. – Oh, okay, oh, you’re not
    even at a million this year? – No, I don’t think I’ve quite hit a million on the year yet, yeah. – Weak, weak. – Weak, yeah so weak. – I’m kidding, I’m
    kidding, that’s amazing. – But it’s you’ve gotta keep the marathon, not a sprint mentality. I think that’s really what it is and keep reminding yourself of that. Sit through those low months. Sit through those months
    where you have to go back to square one and reset yourself. You’re doing this for future you. You’re doing this so that the huge months are possible later. You can’t want it all right now because if you put that
    pressure on yourself where you’ve got to make a
    record month every month, you’re going to do something really dumb. – Why do think traders,
    I know a lot of traders, they take a month off,
    they take a week off, some people don’t understand it. Some people message me. I still work here, I’m still doing my watch list and commentary every day. But there are weeks where I just don’t see any great trades, or I don’t trade. Why do you think that’s
    necessary for traders? I think it’s necessary to
    take some time off every– – Because this is really mentally taxing. It is like, you get exhausted. You kinda reach a breaking point. And it’s funny because this is something else I had to work on. I would get to that point where I was like I could tell I’m getting
    mentally fatigued. I’m starting to do dumb things ’cause I’ve just been trading day after day after day. And then, it would ultimately, it would lead to a big stupid trade
    where I would take a dumb loss. And then I would say,
    well there’s my dumb loss, I’ve gotta take a week off now. And I finally got it to the point where, I can recognize and step
    away before I take that loss. – That’s awesome. – But trading’s addicting, so it’s hard. It’s hard to force yourself to step away. But after three or four times of that mistake, I finally got it. – Yeah, especially when there’s big money, like you want that money you
    have money in your account. You have the knowledge,
    all you have to do is press a little button, but you
    have to control that button. With that great power
    comes great responsibility. And we have all felt that burnout. Like I see you, Steven Dux,
    Mark Crook, Michael Goode, myself, we’re like, (breathes) too many plays, too little sleep. You have to understand,
    this isn’t just fun. We’re not just like, oh, buy, sell. We’re looking at these patterns. That’s what I want you to
    understand from all of this. This is so much work, and
    it’s a beautiful work. And we’re able to go everywhere. And I’m very blessed and fortunate. And we’re here in Italy
    celebrating my mom’s birthday. I flew them out first class. It’s beautiful to be able to do this. But, it takes a lot of effort. – And really the more size you trade, the more stressful it gets. And I’m kind of in this
    little mental rut right now where I will see guys like Dux who are trading five times the number of shares I am on a setup and killing it. And I’m like, I should
    be able to do that, too. But, I’m at this point where I just know, emotionally I can’t handle that right now. I can’t push that kind of size
    and sleep well at night so. – And you really have to recognize that. You have to be introspective
    and think about how is your mental well-being right now? There’s no off-season, that’s the thing. With sports, okay, you
    train in the off-season. You get better for the on-season. It’s very nice. Stock market, usually
    we’ve had summers off but not lately, not in
    the past three years. I’ve been begging for a bear market. I’ve been begging for time off. I’m already long far gone. But I also trade with small size which makes it a little easier. I wouldn’t be able to teach
    and trade with big size. I would be totally gone. Final thoughts, what do you
    think people need to hear to A, get them on the right path, B, give them the right mentality, and C, have them succeed where
    90% of people usually fail? – Sort of like we just mentioned, it’s a marathon, not a sprint. You’ve gotta come into this
    with realistic expectations. People sign up and they have the alright, it’s day one. I’m gonna make some money attitude. And that is not realistic expectations. You are signing up with the mentality of it is day one, it’s time to learn. It’s time to learn about myself. It’s time to learn the patterns. And it’s going to take a while. And then, again, to go along with that since you’re not trying
    to make money early, you’re trying to learn early,
    you have to trade small early. You have to only trade what
    you can afford to lose. What you can easily recover
    from some sort of outside job. – Or what about when their parents and friends and family, say,
    penny stocks are all a scam. You’re following victim to a scam, and you want to show that it’s not a scam by making a lot of money. How do you respond to that? – Ignore the haters, I guess. There was a time I tried to argue with people on Twitter and stuff. And now I just immediately block them. I just don’t care anymore. – You can’t change some people’s opinions. Penny stocks are universally hated. – You’ve gotta ignore the outside noise whether that’s people hating on you or seeing other traders
    making more money than you. Focus on yourself, focus inwards on your own process because– – Ooh, can you say that
    with an accent like? – I don’t think–
    – You must focus inwards. – I’m not gonna do that. – Be like water.
    – But, no, no, no, you, that’s your department. – You must be one like flow like water. – That’s your department, Tim. But really it’s such an internal process. And any time you start to
    get down because of people hating on you or seeing other
    people doing better than you or whatever it might be. Just focus on having yourself
    take one step forward. That’s all you can do. – This is you versus you FYI. Okay I know that we share all
    this stuff on social media, but this is really a personal journey. And you’re gonna have to
    battle your own demons and the addiction and the
    ups and downs, but it’s you. And for me, I love sharing
    it on social media. I encourage people to
    share it on social media. I think it keeps you more responsible. I don’t wanna look like dumb
    in front of my followers so I follow my rules better. So thank you, guys, for helping
    me stay more disciplined ’cause I’m a trading addict. But at the same time,
    you can’t let others, whether it’s your friends, your family, social media get you down. Because this is a
    journey, and you’re on it. And only you can take it
    as seriously as you want. We can say take it seriously,
    enjoy the marathon. You can quit at any time. I don’t encourage it. I think that’s wasteful ’cause there’s always gonna be market. There’s always gonna be opportunities. I think that you will get
    it whether it’s year one, year two, year three, year four. I don’t think I’ve ever had anybody, who’s even like the dumbest
    person in the world, they never say, I’m in year
    five, and I don’t get it. But at the same time, I
    understand you have life, you have pressure, you need income. It’s gotta be about you. And we make these videos to share our own personal journeys,
    to help inspire you, to show you what we’ve been through. But it’s different for everybody. You might become a short
    seller and evil like him. You might be a positive person
    like me and focus on buys. I’m just kidding. It’s not evil to short sell. It’s not evil to buy. Make the stock market work
    for you and your schedule. You don’t even have to be
    dedicated all the time. I have a lot of part-time students. They trade once a week,
    maybe twice a week, and they make an extra 100
    or 200 or $500 or they tried. Maybe they’re not even
    trading but they’re learning in an extra hour or two per week. So that’s today’s lesson. Leave some comments underneath this video. Let’s see what you think. I’ll post some links to to
    Tim Grittani’s great DVD, Trading Tickers, to some
    books that you should read. The more that you study,
    the more that you prepare, the better your odds of success. You cannot over-prepare
    in this game, okay? You can very easily under-prepare. The stock market is a battlefield. I want you prepared. Come to the battlefield
    with the best weapon, and annihilate the field. Thanks again. – Yeah, you got it.
    (laughter) – I almost forgot to mention
    why I’m wearing this shirt. He has the shirt that
    says Chill Out, right? – Yeah.
    – ‘Cause your a chill guy. Why do you think I’m wearing this shirt? Do you know what UMBC is? – They’re the 16th seed
    that beat Virginia. – The first 16 seed to beat the number one seed in
    the NCAA tournament. Are you a fan? Are you guys fans? – They killed my bracket, no! – I’m sorry that they killed your bracket, but this is a beautiful inspiring story. And they’re such a small school. I ordered this shirt. I ordered a hat, literally,
    within five minutes of the team winning. I didn’t even get it delivered for a month because they’re so small
    and inefficient and tiny. But it’s awesome that a number 16 seed can take out a number one seed. Why does this matter? Because what he’s done, seems impossible. $6.7 million on penny stocks? What I’ve done, nearly $5
    million in penny stocks and now five millionaire students. It seems impossible, but it’s not with enough work and the right mindset. And UMBC, I don’t know, did
    you see the player interviews or the coach interviews? – A little bit, yeah. – I’m a little obsessed with them, right? They all believed in it. It didn’t matter if the
    whole world counted them out. What was it? What was it, like 97 and oh,
    or like 120 oh before then. – Oh, yeah, yeah. – Literally, dozens and
    dozens and dozens of examples, not one team had ever taken
    out a number one seed. But they did it, and let them
    be an inspiration to you. Because before us, no one had ever shown exactly how to turn a few thousand into several million. Like, say, oh, maybe you get lucky. Maybe you invest in one
    penny stock or whatever. No one had ever shown the process. And as we create more and
    more successful students, more and more 16 seeds will
    beat number one seeds over time. Because this is kind of a long shot, and to make 6.7 million, you know, let’s be honest, it’s a long shot, right? Most people will not make 6.7 million. They’re not gonna make five million. But that doesn’t mean
    that it’s impossible. If you believe in yourself,
    you could be next. But it’s gonna take a lotta work. It’s gonna take a lot, a lot of effort and the right mindset. So I just wanted to add that because your story is amazing. But at the same time, a
    lot of people watching this are like, that’s nice. That’s nice for him, but it’s
    never gonna happen to me. It can happen to you if you
    are willing to do the work. It will never happen to you if you’re not. If you just say oh, it’s
    not gonna happen to me, I’m not gonna do the work. That’s nice, but it can’t
    ’cause I’m just an average guy. He’s an average guy, okay. Look at his chill out T-shirt. Look at my shirt. We’re not mad geniuses. We’re not like into some, well, I guess we are in a fancy place but. I don’t know that’s my
    last closing thoughts. Cheers! Hey, Tim Sykes, millionaire
    mentor and trader. Thank you for watching my videos. I hope that they help you. I wanna share everything that
    I’ve learned over the years. You can check out more
    videos right over there and also click Subscribe
    so that you can watch all of these videos, get that knowledge, and become my next millionaire student.

    🔴 Defensive Investing & the History of Recession (w/ Victor Sperandeo) | Real Vision Classics
    Articles, Blog

    🔴 Defensive Investing & the History of Recession (w/ Victor Sperandeo) | Real Vision Classics

    August 19, 2019


    Victor Thanks, it’s great to sit down to people that are you know dallas-based Maybe I’ll even start just by saying that there are a lot of people that have been on real vision lately that are talking purely about the markets in kind of a broad sense full market bear market Credit bubble not credit bubble. Whereas maybe you have some kind of more nuanced views, but if we take a step back, Maybe somebody watching the interview which would say that we could possibly be from different investing generations but I think from what I know about you, we might look at markets the same way so Here, you know maybe 10 years or so into a, you know monetary experiment Just generally what do you think about markets now? And and and where we are maybe in the market cycle the economic cycle, etc. Okay. Well these two integrated parts To everything you do in Wall Street, and that’s the fundamental and the technical simple There’s also the psychological and the emotional side of it, but set up just for the point of your question We’re in a bear market it’s a hundred percent Now why do I say that perhaps a background to people listening would be important because it’s a it’s a very Solid statement so I want to give you the background Now I’ve been I started in Wall Street in 66 and I started trading in 68 Now I probably read three plus thousand books one of the books Was a book by by a fella named William Gordon Who was the CEO of indicator digests now? That’s before your time? They were a major force in The technical end of the business in the 60s and they took the ten major Indicators at the time though. They had a lot theory things that nobody even knows what that means so they and they trace that back to 1910 different indicators and then many permutations of those indicators so the one that came in first was the simplicity of using a 200-day moving average trading days and When the price? Whether you use SP the Dow was popular at the time closes below that and the moving average is Sloping downwards. It’s night and day if it’s sloping out upwards doesn’t count Sloping down which you sell and then you would buy in the reverse that concept from from 1900 to 1966 book came out sixty-eight yielded you eighteen and a half percent compounded I Took it forward. We have a trading staff research firm and We we have three PhD math professors etc. And we ran it forward and they were similar now the second the second best Technical indicator was Dow Theory came in at 18% again similar results Compounded at eighteen now The one thing that I did that that Bill Gordon didn’t do was that using real money as such? When you sold you put the money in one-year bills He didn’t add that dimension. So mine. Perhaps was a little less Than the eighteen and a half because I added to it by getting yield when I was in cash So now these two Indicators gave bear market signals one in October the 200-day moving average was the first and then lot later in early December dal theory confirmed so you’re in a bear market and as far as I’m concerned unless Something changes now, they’re not a nothing is infallible. But but I leaned very heavily that these are accurate the other Part would be the fundamentals now. You heard the expression that you know The the market is predicted 14 out of the last recessions that a lot of people use that well, that’s a very naive statement by anybody who uses that particular Phrase, why is because the market doesn’t only predict recessions it predicts Things that can occur that would make the market go down like war it predicts war it predicts Political change for example in 62 and I was young lad. I was a teenager then but I was following the markets and and JFK who’s a very well respected president at the time He attacked The steel companies for raising prices. No different than Trump today on many different aspects He attacked them well in those days it was looked at as socialism and socialism then was not accepted as even a consideration because we were fighting with the Soviet Union cold war so to speak so The market dropped 26% in less than three months But no recession followed The reason was that JFK realized he blundered and he backed off He dropped it. So he didn’t attack the steel companies anymore for raising prices and The markets reversed. So like I say there there are many instances of that over the over the years It doesn’t mean the markets wrong. It means the market predicts many things now when you have the Fed raising rates as Jerome Powell did in September and recently on December 19th. That is a fundamental event everybody knows that’s why everybody follows the Fed that if they’re raising rates markets don’t like this and You usually you know, you’re taking away the punchbowl as the old expression and and basically you You you go into recession every time the Fed does this now? Let me just preface that I think Powell and the other nine members Voted to raise rates the extra quarter even though it was very well discounted Was a major error. This is going to go down in history as one of the worst errors the Fed has ever made including the the 29-32 debacle. So I look at that that as long as they keep on track now They’re already talking down the other cuts Kaplan from from Dallas is already saying well Maybe we should wait til after the second quarter and I mean they’re already backing off But if you change the fundamentals you change the outcomes so if they back off from right now selling QT and the rice the two more increases in interest rates You you have to consider that and that may change the trends of the markets Because the fundamentals are changing but the key is that right now it’s going to be very hard to do that and the reason is the world is Heading into recession Europe, Japan China the virtual world We were the strongest economy in the world And now this psychological switch like turning off light Changed everything. So we are weakening. The data is weakened if you looked at the Richmond Fed And you looked at the Dallas Fed results The economy is already weakening So this was this was because of in my opinion ego and perhaps even some politics Jerome Powell was adamant about what he did and There were many other people besides obviously Trump that didn’t want him to do that that it was the wrong move. So We’re in a bear market bear markets by the way, you go back to 1899 The market once it proclaims a bear market Six months is the average you’re in a recession So what the markets are saying now all things being equal in July? You’re gonna be in a recession in the United States. So from what I know about you you’ve been kind of skeptical maybe of the post global financial crisis monetary policy regime and that Maybe the manipulation of prices interest rates being the most important, you know would eventually have consequences on the other hand. We’re talking now about Powell and the Fed Making a mistake in raising at this point So again, maybe a case that our central bankers our timing cycles incorrectly But how do you square the two? Okay Originally when we had the 208 crash You what the Fed did was sort of natural and no one can critique them although pure The purest would okay But let’s let’s assume that that was the right move but to keep zero interest rates For seven years and to do three qyz, and I believe there was at least one operation twist maybe there was to you that was a again an a huge error now if they were normal and you know you May have heard this you’re a young guy the four-year cycle, right? So you go up three years into an election usually the first year is when you do all the damage because people forget So it would have been natural to raise rates in two thirteen to some degree now even think of it this way into ten when we were in a recovery the Recovery ended in June the recovery began in June of 209 So let’s say in 210. You raised rates fifty basis points a year For seven years, you know one in June one in December small steady You know, you could change your mind If you want to you you’d be at neutral rates, which is what the Fed uses Is there being a talking point these days so they didn’t do that. They didn’t raise rates in 213 They can anything the recovery would have continued whether it was a market recovery or economic recovery speakers because you remember you’re adding now Cuties to this scale qyz, so you got to put that in conjunction if you were doing QE Why not raise rates slowly and maybe in one year race at 25 basis points? And then I’m not trying to you look back and program. What should be done I’m only saying that you can’t all of a sudden Trump wins They raise rates eight times. They raise rate once under Obama to 15 December and Then they raise rates in December of 2 to 16 after Trump won and seven other times so eight times I mean not that two percent means anything it means something psychologically and it means that if you’re you’re on a almost the Heroin addict of interest rate and low interest rates and you do too much you you you pop the psychology and Pease are psychological right? There’s no I Come from what’s called the Austrian School of Economics What they would say is all value is subjective so when people start talking about value and Pease It’s subjective In the in the in the 20 in the 30s Laura lied which was a tobacco company traded at six times dividend Now that’s you can pay that to to Amazon today, there’s a big spread. So what is the difference in that spread? It’s what people think and you know a market is valid and what people think is what it is but the key is it’s Subjective. It’s not objects. Not two and two so the bottom line is is that you were They they did too much and when I can tell you because I was playing this and Everybody knew they were gonna raise rates At least that was the prediction as soon as they raised rates a market collapsed which meant they shouldn’t have done it Because even though people expected it it was the wrong thing to do and this was outlined very well by Stan Druckenmiller And and Kevin wash in The Wall Street Journal Wall Street, Journal had editorials as well But those are two prominent people and there were many other pros that that understood this So it was a very bad move. So he so III hear what you’re saying. I also like Austrian economics and another cornerstone, is that the the manipulation of prices inevitably leads to miss allocation of capital and so if if we’ve been in a decade maybe of the the most abusive or the period where we have most abused the price of money is all of this a big reckoning based on violation of those cornerstone tenants of Austrian economics yeah without a doubt and and what the what the central banks of the world 23 major ones they have abused the the mat the Wizards wand They have taken it to where if you wanted to let’s say measure Austrian school versus Milton Friedman who I loved But he was wrong about The the increasing the money supply the steady rate because politicians don’t do that So this is living proof what’s happened? You know since he died, unfortunately But the key is the Austrian school said no politicians will never do the right thing They will always use whatever power you give them to benefit themselves so The key is they they abuse the wizard’s wand here by Too many qyz, and like I said if you wanted interest rates to be a little normalized During those qyz, they should have raised rates very slowly But shrinking the balance sheet and raising rates, too. Yeah. Sure. Yeah. It’s it’s too much catastrophic. This is catastrophic Okay, so you said something that maybe leads to a good segue we talked about? politicians and their ability to use power abuse power I Think another topic that you’ve written elegantly about and that is of interest to you is how power shifts globally Are going to be an increasingly important factor in various markets, right? What what the most important thing to me is aside from as a trader. It’s what the Fed is doing Alright, but but as an investor I will look at political Trends now you very rarely heat people talking about political trends but political trends dictate what central bank’s eventually do Because they change the power structure of those central banks now Trump didn’t do that Probably his if I had to pick his worst fault. He doesn’t have a higher people I mean, he doesn’t understand ideology of who he’s hiring. So he picked pal who was chosen by by Obama He’s environmentalist you were in environmental fund. He’s an establishment guy He by nature doesn’t like Trump so That was the wrong choice. Kevin. Walsh would have been the best but needy in there he chose him and he’s chosen many other people that he Ideologically don’t fit his bill but getting back to your point the political trends around the world of moving to the term that’s used as nationalist populist and its center-right and to give you an example of the power of this if you look at Europe night to 2017 there were 946 elections within the European community 28 countries, so They lost 94% of them 94% of the center-left lost in 217 now that’s obviously we’re moving to the to the right now. What is right stand for here? less regulation low taxes less government dictates smaller government all of those have Fundamental consequences to what happens to interest rates and what happens to the economy? Trump was successful to a larger degree Because he basically put forth some of those policies and you’ll notice that Europe will never increase taxes there They’re a socialist nation. If you want to include the people who run it, but then you look at the European leaders Well any day Macron With this yellow vest protest. He’s got an 18 percent approval rate. He’s a dead man walking. He’s never gonna win another election He might be ousted at any time. This is his popularity is so low He’s he’s angered the people and you you know you France has a history of when you anger them. They revoked Theresa May same thing. She’s a globalist. She’s a New World Order globalist. She doesn’t want to do what the people voted for So she’s trying to get around it. She could get a no-confidence vote. She should be out And Allah Merkel, perhaps the the most powerful person in the world After well during the Obama administration And she’s gone she’s now just staying in her place but she says she’s not gonna run again and she may get housed that early so you see these trends are really what you have to watch because The monetary policy will follow those trends. So that’s a that’s an interesting point, or maybe it raises an interesting question So we have monetary policy under let’s call them more centrist or center-left policies globally coming out of the global financial crisis and They chose or some people would say we’re forced into aggressive monetary policy We just finished talking a little bit about the US and maybe the finger trap that we’re in here Which is to say that the economy looked good? We didn’t raise it’s we start raising rates were late cycle and maybe we’re doing at all at the wrong time What does some of these what options to some of these other countries these other economies have given that you’re at? extremely low historical interest rates already Asset purchase programs and the liquidity that They have given and to the markets and supported the markets are already out Even if we have populist movements if we move to the right Do you think that the influence you mentioned on this on? The central banks will have any effect? well the the answer to getting growth Is the same as what what Trump did? You you know, look you got a lower taxes Ideally, you got a slow spending. See you never hear of Japan Who by the way has a tax increase coming in October of to nineteen? And the European Union Doesn’t even talk about tax Decreases, but its harm the people the people are basically serfs and many people in the United States are serfs they Work to survive. They get a little piece of the action. That’s what a serf does and They can’t make it anymore. And that’s why when when when macron raised the gas tax To seven and a half dollars a gallon The people revolt abyss that can’t afford it. They can’t pay it. And therefore you you know you had this Happen if you’ve seen the yellow vest movements and you know the fires of burning the cars and things that people are voting So the point is the way that you know now I’m being an economist side of me I’m saying well Why don’t you lower taxes? less regulation less spending Ideally less spending Trump didn’t do that so much spending and and you get growth and then you get interest rates I mean, you know the three-year the 2-year bond is Is yielding I think it’s – 30 basis points could be more and inflation 3% now She’s gonna drop but the point is how do you buy how do you but I think it’s excuse me It’s the 10-year. They’re too many numbers. The 10-year is minus sixty With a three percent inflation right now again As I say inflation will decline this oil is declined and that’s why again pal made a mistake in any central bank that is right, you know trying to raise rates now is the wrong move the key is they Kept that policy in Europe because they didn’t want to lower taxes They’re Global’s they want to keep the people working for the people who you know Steve bangin would call them the Davos party. So that’s who they want It’s easy to solve. It’s the ideology that’s very difficult to get over the heads of the people in power So tying this back to markets and central banks, etc It sounds to me parsing through what you’re saying that at least when we’re talking about the developed world and developed world central bank’s who who have perhaps been the most aggressive in their monetary response to Really the crisis ten years ago now might just be hamstrung even if the politics shift in the direction of Attempted market friendly behavior at least from a policy standpoint their options might be limited They are Europe is Extremely limited so is Japan because they didn’t raise rates. They should have raised rates. They were afraid now They’re in a corner. How do you can’t lower rates when you have negative rates, right? And So they’re they’re they’re toast They’ve killed themselves and I sort of mean that literally the European Union cannot survive now predicting when a You know when a son of a nation ends is a very bad thing for traders to do But you could see you know, you look at the Soviet Union they lasted 72 years So you can’t you can’t they always have tricks, you know that they put forth So, I don’t know when the European Union will break up But it will and right now it’s probably in a more precarious state than it’s ever been because the the three top countries of Germany England and France in that order and they’re all in trouble, I mean the leaders are Out already to get to be thrown out. So if we step back and take, you know view at the whole world, is there anywhere? Maybe in the emerging markets Where you think the combination of political change? less central bank Division s today leads to opportunity right now. You’re you’re in in my view What what would be the cold defense or? Preserving principle unless you want to play the short side The short side is a difficult thing to play at this level because there’s an incentive for Trump and She Xin pinned to do a deal they do a deal on trade. The markets are gonna rally. I mean, there’s gonna be a psychological Big move up, that would be the time to short but you know Not the first day of the first week of the even maybe after three weeks, but the key is that’s coming so you’re really at this stage very difficult unless you’re a trader to Put on a short position and and you know sort of go away But the bottom line is is is that the the the world is in a precarious position? So you’re gonna be on the defense we had to put your money. I mean if you’re talking about a nation right now Brazil I would look for investments in Brazil. I would do the Jimmy Rogers game, you know, I mean this guy Boston ro is gonna do good things in my opinion and Switzerland because Switzerland is is is basically a place that is neutral all the time They have negative rates because they don’t they wanted to stop people from putting their money in the Swiss franc So, you know that let’s put this way that if I were And I’m not recommending a trade but just in theory I’d be long in Swiss franc short the euro, right? That would be a trade. I’d be long The Brazilian reality short the Mexican peso although the Mexican peso technically looks very good So I’m not saying P do this now. I’m saying from a fundamental pocket Yeah, you’re just looking at the backpack. But the chart on the Mexican peso looks very good So you can’t shut the Mexican peso here the key. Is that right? now you want to look for nations that are gonna do what Trump did in theory and You want to avoid the nations that are fighting it France? Until McCrone goes is in turmoil. Yeah, right Interesting. Well, so if we bring it back then to the US because you just now you have point back to what Trump did He obviously was very vocal about his impact on the markets while they were rising and as recently I think is Yesterday I’ve talked about the correction as a glitch and really a misunderstanding by the American people Is there anything to comment on that in terms of your world, you know his weakness is? basically his insecurity he has to tell you that he’s the greatest, you know, I mean I Kind of laugh at him. It doesn’t bother me. Whatever. He says it’s his personality I don’t care about his personality. I care about his policies but the point is his weakness is He he speaks too much and to take the credit while the market was going up Obviously he called it right he said don’t raise rates the markets down because the Fed did raise rates too much too fast So he’s right but there’s been times where he’s been made very much in favor of raising rates He seems to have two views. Yes who wants a strong dollar maybe because of the psychological I Think Larry Kudlow was influential in that. I don’t know if he ever wanted really as strong. He wanted a stable now Let me see. He understands dollar goes lower. Your goods are cheaper. You sell more, but but yes he he is all over the place because He doesn’t he doesn’t have What I’ll call conscious to tional principles that never change, you know, for example, you should never Employ price controls right? That’s a principle And not that he’s for them. I’m just using that as an example the point is is that he has now gotten himself in some soup because he’s taking credit for the market increase and now it’s gonna be political because it’s not his fault that the Fed raised rates, but he’s gonna get the blame so he politically harms himself Far more than he would if he just shut up because people would would attribute What’s happening to the economy if you lower taxes and cut regulations and the market goes up? You don’t have to say well I did it, right so he hurts himself in many ways and I repeat his worst mistake is How he hires people he hires people because he thinks they’re smart Vladimir Lenin is very smart is the smartest dictator they’ve lived Would you hire would you I don’t know his ideology is Opposite yours so the key is he makes these mistakes. Then he winds up learning about the people that they’re different He fires them and he looks bad right then. There’s no continuity, right? so if we if we maybe shift back to Politics and power politics in the globe. You know, how do you as a traitor? As an investor as an advisor You know, how do you think about the next few years? Is it very much? You said you use the word defense earlier in the interview, but are your time horizons shrinking? In terms of how you look at at the markets or investments. Are you trying to be more tactical? Or is it? You know are we just waiting for the signal for a bigger trend again? Well, let’s examine two points to answer that question, but I can only do this You know by looking at the past the the the experience of the path helps guide you to the future in 1854 the Nber has a Bureau of Economic Research Started to classify recoveries and recessions and They’ve been doing it ever since now from 1854 to 209 The the average recovery Was thirty eight point seven months thirty eight point six months since 82 It’s a hundred months What’s happened is the Fed? Got this magic wand this the Wizards wand and they said, you know Why should we let them are this is a greenspan concept being too smart for zone good how extend these say I put in the Greenspan put will keep the markets going will keep the recovery going and so when you do that, however when the game ends for whatever reason You get far greater downsides. I mean the the declines from 1854 there were a couple of depressions one in the 1870s in 1929 thirty-two, but you had 2000 – OH – there were three years of decline. The only other time that happened was in 1929 – 30 – 29 30 31 32 actually wound up being up here not him than June and The the point is that you had to await so now You’re kind of in a difficult spot because even though we’ve raised rates of two and a half percent You’re not gonna get much Vig by dropping rates 200% you know Although it would it would definitely cause a rally but the key is is that the Fed is is in trouble because it hasn’t It hasn’t budget itself properly like Europe is in worse trouble. Japan is in worse trouble but you know, we’re the with the best of the bunch, but the key is Is that you you really have to expect? All things being equal meaning no change you can have a Horrendous bear market here horrendous because you’re starting from a high plateau of ten years up the longest bull market in history 3,000 and almost 500 days And you have two thousand five thousand year old interest rates in Europe and since America was developed Let’s call it two hundred and thirty years ago. These are the lowest interest rates in two hundred years And by the way, just for your your audience when the Fed started to raise rates December 16th 2015 from zero to a little corner. The thirty-year was 3% exactly on that day It was 297 last night so you see the long end is is having Seeing the problems. The bond market is a great for teller of future economic news So you really have an issue where? You’ve raised rates nine times, but the long end of the market is lower than when you started So now you the real curve is inverting in some respects last night that the one year was 260 and the ten year was 265 I mean, yeah You are dropping can see that the Fed is never gonna be able to complete what it said it was going to do That’s not gonna help the key is what does it do with its balance sheet? Because that is where the rubber meets the road if they continue to sell then Then we’re we’re gonna see something in the order of a thirty seven or a twenty-nine thirty now to what extent you look at, you know different parts of the market because Despite it not you know being my day job exactly never really been us focused and probably have less of a technical Bend then you have I think you’d have to have your head in the sand to not realize that we’ve had a very concentrated leadership in the US markets for a long time maybe being Tech tech heavy I think all of our all the people watching know the names and the breath has maybe been absent and Even though we look at the December that we just have we’re filming, you know now here in January We look at the worst December since the Great Depression And we might say my goodness. The markets are just falling apart You’ve had these miniature blow ups and major bear markets in different sectors in the US markets and in many global markets over the last several years perhaps foreshadowing that Ultimately the the last shoe would drop being big US tech maybe healthcare But to what extent are you looking at? The the Sub industries of the S P. And is there anything that you that you take from the price action? You know there or between them tech versus maybe the resource sector okay, first a little background the Early the late sixties early seventies. We had the conglomerate craze There were these Conkle on everybody loved conglomerates. There were many of them then in the late 70s we had the nifty 50 a von Polaroid I was a block trader for we I sold my firm to Whedon and company and they made me a block trailer as an options Expert and I used the options to hedge The block trading I did in the nifty 50 That was kind of my the glamour stocks They call them it so they all have they all get nailed if the if the market is going to come down 73 74 conglomerates died 50 50 80 81. They got killed I mean Everything when the markets go down Everything goes down. So the fang stocks are you know, the tech stocks are over bees they’re overpriced Relatively speaking. And don’t forget all these. I mean not people talk about this the Facebook’s Google’s of the world make their money from advertising right? So if you have a recession, which we haven’t seen since 208 What’s the first thing you cut? Advertiser is nobody’s buying anything So there’s a fundamental. Let’s say behind the scenes obvious to me that if you own these Internet stocks, let’s call them there They’re gonna get sold aggressively for fundamental reasons. Now if you want to call tech, you know, let’s call Microsoft and some of the some of the semiconductor stocks Let’s call that tech most of them have moved offshore South Korea, Taiwan, China Build those things so we don’t really have a big tech industry per se In the United States all those jobs are moved offshore for the same reason the manufacturing jobs are just cheaper labor So all I can say is is that you can’t hide behind? Any group and now because you have so many of these ETF indices and so many stock indices You’re really trading stocks are stocks and Being a stock picker. There are some excellent stock pickers like Lee Koopman who recently is a man I know very well and friend of mine. I would say and and he’s excellent But he’s best in bull market space a outperform But if you’re long stocks in the bear market, nobody wins, you know bees although stocks are gonna go down. Yeah Yeah, it certainly looks precarious You mentioned obviously how low rates are historical historically speaking can go back thousands of years and Europe hundreds of years in the u.s The the debt role for u.s. Corporates looks pretty Scary at the moment Particularly in this rate environment, you know, you took incorporates to talking corporates. Yeah. Sorry true He’s another you know, I’m a man. That is a researcher So I have a lot of facts and I’m losing my memory in many areas, but not in these years if you from 61 to 208 The end of to a beginning to all nine if you took the thirty-year at the 30-day t bill and the 30-year long bond you add them together you divide by 2 you compound that? From from from 26 to 19 to 2008 the interest, excuse me, in this case from 61, not from 2016 16 1961 to 208 The average interest rate adding a t-bill to the long bond divided by 2 is five nine nines. Let’s say 6% Yesterday The average was 269 That’s 2.2 times to get to six now. What does this mean? There’s not a price in the world That’s accurate Coca-cola in India is not priced correctly now I don’t know. It should be higher or lower but there is no price correctness in the world. So all prices are going to be Adjusted once interest rates go back up And that is kind of obvious. But when you say it the way I’m saying it. I want to make people pause There has been nothing but a huge distortion of real-estate prices of stock prices of paintings a painting sold for 450 million dollars I mean, I’m not in the in the art world, but I mean, you know This is all based on the fact that stocks have been elevated and people have X, you know so much money They try to diversify. So this gets back to your Austrian economics better. Right? The old value is subjective the key here is is that you you must understand that this is Going to be reset One way or another it’s going to be reset again Timing is hard to predict here when like for example, if I said well interest rate it’s gonna be 6% again on average I mean, I can’t predict that I can’t predict when but someday well the the conclusion to that is that Anything with paper money? Will not protect you so if you own if you’re wealthy and you own stocks, or you own real estate in paper-money terms They’re gonna they’re gonna be depreciated The most unvalued thing and me and many of the other people on on Your you’re the sponsor here real vision TVs gold and silver are the most the cheapest things in the world Relative to other products in the world or other objects in the world. So, you know, I’m an investor in gold I’m an investor in silver in the physical and basically I’m comfortable and you know, I’ve been an investor a long time. It’s just question of Proportions, so to me, I that’s a place to invest that’s not a place to Train very hard trading Gold and silver very hard, so I wouldn’t recommend that but you know where you put your money we talked about, you know Maybe places like Switzerland and now maybe Brazil but the key is also from from from a sector point of view The mining stocks, which if gold goes up They actually are leveraged up because costs stay the same and the price goes up so they have higher margins So mining stocks are actually better than the physical Unless the world has real problems and then the physical is better than the miner stocks I should point out that Homestake mining which was the biggest mining gold mining company in the world in 1929 was eight dollars in 1936 traded at $70 so you see mining stocks can go up button and you couldn’t own gold in those days because Roosevelt had confiscated the gutter. Have we missed anything? Well, yeah, let me let me mentioned it and I’ve been a huge researcher on debt. Everybody talks about debt and I Believe And with all due respect and great deference To mr. Dahle. Oh Maybe see he’s recently done some videos and he put out a new book I think and What most people are not aware of is that starting in 2:14? The rules were changed That have a huge Benefit to the US government when they sell debt now, we all know they got a trillion dollar deficit and you got 22 trillion on balance sheet and You got 10 trillion off balance sheet, which very few people talk about forget the unfunded liabilities If you want to know what the real deficit is you got to look at the gap way of figuring the deficit because you got to take into account on funded liabilities you Wouldn’t have a deficit of a trillion. You have a deficit of six trillion So you could see you know, there’s lots of games that are played But the key is most people are just not aware of these rules now If you buy debt as a bank This applies the banks and my let me give you the the bottom line before I explain why the government can the US government could sell all of that at once there is no Debt deficits and debt does not matter at all Now it will Sunday But it doesn’t if you want to sell debt in other words The government will always be able to fund itself has nothing to do with overseas most commentators You know who went to school got master’s degrees that they’re not up on the x? So what do I mean by this Basel three? You have no capital hits to a bank they’re exempt sovereign debt is exempt this goes for you know, ECB and Japan There’s no harm done there You buy government debt you don’t have you haven’t put aside anywhere Erbs So there’s no reserve hit You buy government debt they have an account now, and this was in 214 where it’s called whole to maturity HTM accounts The other account is available for sales. If you’re a bank and you want to buy a hundred billion of US debt 30 years, which is what you want Because you get the interest on that debt You have no risk, there’s no mark-to-market Because you put it in your yet Okay, so I know enough about this to be dangerous, but I want to make sure everybody’s following you so far So we’re talking about the US government and its ability to fund itself the US government sells government bonds on the spectrum of maturities some people would sit out there saying well at some point they’ll be Absent a buyer, but what you’re explaining now Is that because of rule changes in a closed system? where our banks or global banks are able to buy sovereign debt without putting aside any capital meaning that there’s no Hit to their capital ratio owning it you’re saying there’s essentially an unlimited demand, especially given that there’s no mark to market So there’s no earnings risk, etc. Correct, and they will always be the bidder for these outside of maybe It’s a real Rothschild arbitrage The banks have put themselves in a position to purely arbitrage the interest Nothing can happen to them and a matter of fact, they didn’t get the last point but they print the money right so they come in they just write a check to the to the Treasury if They if they’re bidding in the auction is one of the primary dealers and they print the money just like banking 101 Where you print money to people, of course, there’s a reserve when you make normal loans in this case. There’s no reserve because The government will print the money and give it to you. I mean there is some logic behind it. That is not prudent, but if there is logic if if you can’t lose because The Treasury will give you the money there if you if you’re buying bonds below par You have no risk, right? So I only say that because Again, I’m not suggesting that You should buy bonds and you can’t lose I’m saying that a bank can buy bonds and it can fund something without without the normal process taking place now, by the way, if you call a central bank and you ask them about this It’s not easy to get information and they won’t talk to you. They don’t really want this Let’s say you can research it and you can find these rules about what you know what the what the reserve requirement would be if you buy a a 2-year US government bond or a note in this case and You’ll find it, but but they don’t want to Let’s say tell you easily. So if you call they’ll say well email this department. You’ll email that department. You’ll never hear from them I tried it So they really want to confirm they want you to confirm, but they don’t want to tell you so we started down this line of Talk was debt generally and we started now and we started by saying, you know, let’s talk about government debt I think that’s essentially where we’re going and our ability to fund ourselves in perpetuity and there Based on what you just explained there might be good reason to believe that as long as our banks are on board Which maybe they would be strong-armed to be at all times that in a closed system We could perpetually fund our deficits as long as everybody continued to be Incentivized to do they’re incentivized to do it now if the only question I’d have for you again, since you brought up Austrian economics, you know ends up being the definition of inflation which Often times can prick problems and deficits and in bonds and we look at or I think the market looks at Silly measures like CPI, and we believe that that’s inflation. But if you are true Austrian economists you’d say that the increase in the money supply and the growth and money supply is actually inflation, so when the government our government or any other one prints money and Whatever money aggregate you want to use starts expanding? That’s the true inflation number. Yeah, it’s it’s it’s how you Define what inflation is you’re on the right track? And by the way, avoid corporate bonds was the point of that story because this doesn’t apply the corporates corporates They got reserves and they don’t have they don’t have the same ability To not take losses as I mean if it and we’re seeing it but yeah The markets are locked up there, right a corporate bond can go out of business. The US government doesn’t want a business It just prints more money But getting back to the inflation point here is the key question and I was wrong on this So let me put myself right out there when they were when the government was doing when the film was doing qyz you would have assumed there’d be hyperinflation and the reason there wasn’t and I give the Fed credit for this one is because they they basically Took money and they didn’t give it to the people they gave it to wealthy investors insiders banks and So let’s say you worth a hundred million dollars hundred billion dollars and I come to you and I say look I want to buy your bonds and Here’s 100 billion you give me the bonds. Well, you’re not gonna go spend, you know, you can only Bible a couple of yards So taking a step back what you’re saying. Is that the velocity of money Which is the critical part? Money in printings impact on inflation never picked up velocities. It’s at a 50-year low right because you’re giving money to the people in exchange for an asset and The people who you’re exchanging that asset for are wealthy people who are not going to spend the money But reinvest the money whether it be stocks, which most of them did or or bonds But the point is you didn’t give the money to the people now Let me just put this into its context in 1920 when Germany lost world war 1 and there was this thing called reparations they have For the expenses. Well, they bankrupt the Germany. Well Germany printed the Mont printed money, but they gave it to the people So whether people do they spent it see so if you don’t give money to the people You’re not gonna see as long as velocity is dropping. That’s your key that you know, there’s no turnover, right? I mean in the 20s in 1920 the the coming into 1922 and 3 which were the bad years you had money turnover velocity of 1.5, which is About what is today in the u.s. It went to 12 so money turned over 1 see once a month the money supply turned once a month instead of One and a half times a year so you could see that’s where you get your inflation, right? So again just to to not you know Not let’s say put in context because governments have tricky ways to do things so if they want to stimulate the economy and stimulate wealth They just give it to the wealthy people who invest it and don’t spend it and you don’t see it in the CPI You see it in the stock market the art market. The real estate market is etc I don’t want to complicate things, but I think when we talk about you know wealthy people in this case the money that was printed mainly went to banks and banks Mostly put that excess liquidity back to the Fed in excess reserves, right? So the big economic Conundrum and I’m speaking a little bit above my paygrade here But I think to synthesize what you’ve been saying All of this money was printed but as you said instead of going to the people or instead of going into the real economy it ended up really amongst the banks and Because the banks weren’t lending it we didn’t have maybe some people would say would argue We didn’t have real economic growth which would come from lending it to the people which then meant spending by the people and it ended up at the Fed in terms of excess reserves or in other places where velocity of money wouldn’t take up that liquidity again really became a manifest itself in speculative activity like the market or Frankly just on the bull fed know exactly what happened, but but some of the people did get Some of the money and they like to say they invested it not spent it and and that’s a part of it But would you says accurate 100 percent? But that’s why you didn’t get inflation because the money they paid for the one of them I think may been the first time in history, but I’m not sure they paint interest on reserves So the banks didn’t have the incentive to lend it to loan out the money. That’s right. So where does that bring us today? Because again, I don’t want to make the conversation overtly bearish it’s been a long cycle of people expecting that this you know policy eventual mistake was gonna have its reckoning in the market and we haven’t Until very recently. So again, wary of crying wolf here, but when we look at all the things that you’ve talked about You know political change but political change in places where? Monetary policies already been extreme we talk about real economic activity Waning despite again the punchbowl being in front of the economy for the last, you know, 10 years and also now turning over Now we we’ve talked about velocity of money and and and why there’s been no inflation and it’s because throughout this Apparent economic expansion that we’ve had over the last 10 years Lending has actually in real economic activity as some would measure it never really picked up and now we’re potentially going into recession and there’s even Less probability that the banks are going to use that capital if they have for lending purposes So a lot of moving pieces, but but how does this filter down into? victors view of the world going forward It’s got lots of problems and unless things change Less policies change we’re back to where we started You’re in a bear market you’re going to be in a recession and by July Statistically speaking. Maybe it’ll be August maybe September. Yes Now if this major changes you have to filter the things being in all things being equal you’re in a recession in six months And it’s begun. I mean the you look at the the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report and and and the other one that came out was Richmond. I Mean they look pretty terrible to me. Yeah, so You know the key here is survival, right Staying alive, you know Jimmy Rogers. I know him a long time every time I meet him Sometimes we meet in the men’s room in a restaurant. I mean he’s now moved to Singapore so I don’t see him as much but every time I see him he said oh you still solvent I said, yeah How you doing, Jimmy? Yeah, I’m still sobbing. So that was our favorite exchange of words Because you never know But things you know, I mean the markets can be up going up and many pros could be short. So I thank goodness I didn’t lose a lot of money on the upside being short. I’m short once or twice on a trading level. Where where I used the options and I lost a part of that but you know, I The market on the way up, but let me also say that I missed the bulk of the move Because I never believed the fed would continue to play the game as they did. So I’ve been very conservative for the last and so I You know This is all new to most of the old money managers who never seen things like this well I think that actually might be at least in my opinion one of the most interesting lead ends of the conversation so far because as I said in the beginning of the interview, but I’ll repeat we at least Externally from an age perspective are from different investing generations. I was very lucky To cut my teeth in the industry for a firm who was on the right side during the financial crisis also big believers in Austrian economics skeptics of extraordinary monetary policy, etc so I think I’ve always kind of carried that chip along with me that that That market scan can get very weird very fast And that there is a such thing as a bear market mentality versus a bull market mentality but one of the things that you know I’d say maybe keeps me up at night or certainly keeps the wheels and in my brain moving, is that most investors today? And getting to your point Really are just of the bull market generation Right and and you’ve done such a good job today of walking us through stats of statistics going back in some cases hundreds of years Which shed a lot of light on you know what happens in different parts of the cycle But one thing then makes me a little bit nervous here is that we have a lot of market participants Who aren’t really students of history? They aren’t even students of near-term history like 2008 or they certainly didn’t live at first hand so If everything that you’re saying is true we we Market as a whole might be woefully unequipped to deal with it Correct the PT Barnum line, you know the annual crop of suckers I mean, I don’t mean that if people lose money and downside that they’re suckers. I mean that they’ve been led to drink this kool-aid and The Fed would save them now the question yet. They ask is Why the ten members vote? to raise rates when To anybody who knows markets they wouldn’t have raised rates. Is it political? Are they now become a political I mean inflation is? one of their band-aids Price stability they’ve got two percent going out for three more years in their projections Unemployment is three point seven or whatever the way through foreign aid, whatever it is. I mean, so what are they targeting? They’re targeting growth? They’re targeting GDP. Why? That’s not part of their mandate The Trampas Trump is right. He just doesn’t express himself. Well Do you think That if the Fed had stayed on hold that the market would have had a positive reaction Yeah, I do. I think it would have been very pie because everybody was expecting it Like I said to raise rates But they didn’t believe they really would do it Because they said it see they guided you to what they were gonna do and then they did it But they didn’t change their the you know with all the editorials. Like I said of many in the Wall Street Journal aside from Druckenmiller And they still raise rates. So they they really made a Horrible error, they’re gonna be on par with 29. Now. How do they get out of this mess? Caplin eight hours ago it was saying well, maybe we should wait till after the first second quarter and you know they’re already trying to walk back some of it because they’re seeing this seem like Well, that’s all very interesting, you know, there are definitely some people in the market that that perhaps incorrectly Thought that a hold would be a signal that the wheels were really coming off. No, it’s not the way it works That that is it’s a great talking point. It’s a great excuse It’s 2 and 2 if you raise right, you know what I mean, people are paying and all those two credit cards Did I mean right now? If you get a statement and you know obviously pay off for my statement I don’t have any good but the key is you look at the same. It’s like 18.6 annualized rate There’s 4 trillion in credit card debt, so You’ve Majan with what’s happening to the people. So lowering interest rates would not look bad because the the point is The people would be paying less in interest. Oh sure and they’ve had more money to do other things with per se so that they should have how they should have stayed the the the excuses are just mind Boggling that’s why this company is doing so well versus CNBC because they’re losing viewership nothing against CNBC Perce ASA pit bulls and here people get to express and say What they what they believe yes, so One may be more nuanced question on this point just because I think we have a little bit of time But how do you as a veteran trader? Look at the kind of coincident news ie the Fed choosing to hike Stay stay on hold or cut in the moment versus what the market is pricing in terms of probability of these moves the reason I ask is because you talk about responses and maybe the way that either policymakers or Politicians will do an about-face to try and save the market And potentially prevent the recession that otherwise would come in in six months, but the futures markets and interest rates Are starting to price that in already that about-face? How do you reconcile the two you know what you? Kind of get in terms of future expectations in the futures market Versus what happens in the moment on decision day? Okay. Well You you you go back to technicals in fundamental. So you look at the charts And aside from the charts as a trader you buy extreme weakness because you know the feds going to come in at this point they have they don’t want really the markets to continue to go down they’ve stabilized them by I mean they You know look I’ve been buying things and selling things for 55 years if you want to buy something and it’s your stuff Do you really? Run up a hundred handles in the S&P. No, there’s no news that day that That’s the Fed saying look we don’t work. You know, we don’t want to cause a crash here. So we’re gonna stabilize the markets So if the markets are going down in an extreme fashion The later in the day the better You you buy some you don’t buy the full boat because again It can continue down you want to average in the feds gonna be there from here on in to stop any crash because they know The eyes are on them The shutdown has nothing to do with the markets, right? these are just to be clear we’re saying is that you do think that We will have the Fed or the plunge Protection team is that’s so affectionately known on extreme moves in the market participating Right, there’s one There’s one contingency of that When you’re a manipulator You do not buy on bad news like with this Apple news The Fed is not going to spend their money if this Apple news and I’m expanding if there was bad news across the board You’re wasting your money because people will sell to you so you can only buy When the markets are crashing and there’s no news, you know in this people are unwinding is a margin calls or whatever It might be sure so the key is that if there’s no news and it’s quiet and the markets are selling off That’s when you buy but if this if there’s news The GDP is gonna be revised down by the Atlanta Fed. Yeah to negative. Why fight? The markets gonna go down if they can’t stop that because people will sell to you right and so you have to be a Manipulator you have to do it when it’s quiet Then you buy it up and you know that’s the way that the game works does that’s a little bit of a trading pitch there about what I do, but Really right now the key is if you’re an investor you should be extremely conservative And you should be in in debt. You should be in the yen’s gone crazy here That’s just you mean government that you mean bonds government. Yeah not corporate it and you should be in In gold and silver and the mining shares which are on the they’re their bottom and as You see gold has been going up and silver been going up because people moving their money To to defensive positions. That’s why the yen went up Well, that is a lot of food for thought. I think it’s been a great interview. Thank you so much for your time You’re welcome. Thank you. Bye ask the right questions you did Until Roland grant. I appreciate you know their consideration to that They got a great business and it’s great to see the interviews that they have put forth So, it’s great that Victor. Thanks. Thank you for talking

    Working from a Kayak in the Philippines NEW
    Articles, Blog

    Working from a Kayak in the Philippines NEW

    August 19, 2019


    What’s up! Tim Sykes,
    Millionaire Mentor and Trader here in the Philippines. Kayaking and trading, multitasking. My laptop might have gotten a little wet, but I have to show you that
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    Wall Street Warriors | Episode 9 Season 2 “Bulls, Bears & Whales”” [HD]
    Articles, Blog

    Wall Street Warriors | Episode 9 Season 2 “Bulls, Bears & Whales”” [HD]

    August 16, 2019


    LAETITIA:
    Coming up next on Wall Street Warriors… LAETITIA:
    I landed a job as a junior currency analyst. I’m real excited, it’s a good fit. BORIS:
    What’s absolutely unforgivable is to give it back on one stupid, stubborn trade. BRETT:
    I’m in the Dominican Republic right now, down here to meet with a large potential investor. Not sure exactly what to expect. LANCE:
    We’ve got a big fish JAMES:
    And he doesn’t have a big account with us. LANCE:
    Now we want to throw him money. MALE: (on speaker)
    (subtitle)How much U.S. would that be? JAMES:
    Nine hundred and thirty thousand. LANCE:
    You do have to be ballsy. That separates the men from the boys. LARRY:
    The pits filling up right now. I got a minute to go. I gotta get in there and hurt someone. [All talking at the same time] [OPENING CREDITS SEQUENCE] [Exterior sequence of shots] JAMES:
    The past several weeks we’ve experienced a significant market correction. There’s a lot of problems in the market
    place, there’s a lot of people losing large amounts of money and also losing their jobs. A lot of the investment banks out there, they’re
    firing their CEO’s. Some banks might even go under altogether. It’s definitely having an impact on everything. The markets are down and SanDisk is down. [Chyron-On this filming day, SanDisk was trading
    at $36, down from a high of $59] LANCE:
    SanDisk is the majority of our book. I seen they’re stock down twenty, thirty,
    forty percent, it scares a lot of clients, but there’s two way you can handle that,
    okay? You can hide under your desk, you can ignore
    phone calls, or you can take this and use it to your advantage. JAMES:
    So what we’ve decided to do is, first and foremost, go back and do the homework again,
    make sure that everything’s correct with SanDisk, make sure we didn’t make any mistakes,
    and all of our checks came back with A pluses. We think the sell off is not merited, uh,
    we think we’re gonna have a nice bounce back, so we’ve been on the phones talkin’
    to clients, you know, holdin’ their hand all the way through it and also building new
    relationships with new clients. JAMES: (on phone)
    We could probably get a better figure for that. What, you have one hundred to five hundred
    million? Okay. LANCE:
    We’ve taken the past month as an opportunity to get some guys on the phone, explain the
    story, tell ‘em we’re still a hundred and ten percent convinced SanDisk is goin’
    higher, and we’ve tried to add on to our position. Okay, lower dollar cost, averaged a little
    bit more. Stock’s on sale. There’s nothin’ wrong with it. Fundamentals are still in place. It just got pulled back a little bit with
    the market. It happens. That’s the market. If it went up in a straight line, everybody’d
    be a broker, we’d all have a million dollars. When everybody’s playin’ the trumpet,
    usually you need to be sellin’. When everybody’s scared and when everybody’s
    layin’ low is when you usually should be buyin’. You do have to be ballsy, especially when
    the market’s turned down. That separates the men from the boys. [Cut to Laetitia arriving at work] LAETITIA:
    I landed a job as a Junior Currency Analyst at this company called FXCM. I’m real excited, it’s a good fit, and
    with my European background. KATHY:
    I want to welcome you to FXCM. This is our headquarters and we also have
    offices in Dallas, San Francisco, Hong Kong, China, London. This is very important to remember because
    Daily FX, which is the research team that you’re working with, is geared towards individual
    investors. LAETITIA:
    Okay. Since I’ve studied international business,
    I’m gonna get to use that side of my degree to follow political and economic news events
    and see how they affect exchange rates. BORIS:
    FX stands for Foreign Exchange, it’s the single largest, uh, financial market in the
    world. It trades three trillion dollars of, uh, capital
    per day. It trades twenty-four hours a day, five days
    a week. It responds to big geo-political events, big
    economic events, and it’s the largest market in the world that nobody’s ever heard of. KATHY:
    You know, part of the reason we did very well was because we did a lot special reports. In your articles, what we want to do is generate,
    you know, conversation. LAETITIA:
    Today we had my first Monday morning meeting. The job is a mix of journalism and technical
    analysis. KATHY:
    The one that we’re gonna concentrate on is the Fed rate decision, will they or will
    may not cut. BORIS:
    (overlapping) Yeah. I’m gonna take the opposite side of that. I, I think I’m gonna take the side that
    the Fed isn’t gonna cut. LAETITIA:
    It was interesting to be there because they’re very opinionated people. BORIS:
    If retail sales this week prints halfway decent, we have a bounce. KATHY:
    (overlapping) High, high oil prices is the reason they need to cut interest rates, is
    one of the reasons. My name’s Kathy Lean and I’m the chief
    strategist here at FXCM. Boris and I both manage the research team. Our research website is dailyfx.com. MALE:
    Our whole staff works on twelve, fifteen articles a day. Kinda like running a newspaper that never
    closes. BORIS:
    There’s an enormous amount of strength, that means a huge amount of capital, that
    means they’re still the buyer of last resort for U.S. Treasuries. Our primary responsibility is to cover the
    FX markets twenty-four hours a day and to generate research ideas so that our customers
    could trade off of them. KATHY:
    The great thing about foreign currencies is that you really only trade eight currencies. All you have to do is follow eight countries
    and compare the performance of each country against each other. It emulates the stock market to some degree
    but it’s more simplistic. [Exterior shot-Day] [Cut to the floor of the Stock Exchange] LARRY:
    Hurricane Dean has come and Hurricane Dean has gone. The orange juice market has calmed down, it’s
    had a big sell off after the last crop report and the market is trading around one-twenty
    which is absolutely perfect for us. What I usually do in the morning is I’ll
    walk around, talk to a couple brokers, see what they think, try to synthesize as much
    information about today as I possibly can and digest that before the opening so that
    I have somewhat of an advantage if I can get that. What do you think this morning? So right now, we’re in the worry season
    for a trader. You’ll see all this talk goin’ on, pre-opening,
    before, doesn’t matter. It means nothing. The game is played in the rink. It doesn’t matter if I tell you orange juice
    is going down. When I walk in the pit and I vote, that’s
    all that matters. Hurricanes, a little early for that but— MALE:
    Way too early for weather. LARRY:
    We’re gonna vote with real money, and at the end of the day we’re gonna see if we
    come out on top. MALE:
    More important is Brazil and the size of their crop. LARRY:
    I think it’s gonna open a little bit firmer here. A couple of the brokers said it looks a little
    bit higher so, uh, you can see the pit’s filling up right now. Game on here again. Morning. I got a minute to go, I’ve gotta get in
    there and hurt somebody. Morning, morning. Morning. [whistle blows] [Exterior sequence of shots] [Cut to Brett leaving his hotel room to meet
    with Derek] BRETT:
    I’m in the Dominican Republic right now. I’m here to meet with a potential investor
    for our fund. I’m meeting with the owner of Sun Village
    Resorts. Not sure exactly what to expect here but this
    is an opportunity to get to know him better and hope to have him see the value of our
    fund and, uh, look to invest in us. DEREK:
    Cuba, D.R., Puerto Rico, and then you got the chain islands here, and then you come
    up into the Bahamas and the Turks and Keikos. BRETT:
    Finally captured a segment of his time which really was the goal in coming up here. Well, so Dominican’s not an offshore tax
    free haven like Turks is. DEREK:
    (overlapping) No. Full blown U.S. tax convention. BRETT:
    It is? DEREK:
    Yeah. BRETT:
    (overlapping) Okay. I had been back and forth having small meetings
    with Derek over the past few months and this is finally the time to sit down and really
    get in front of him. DEREK:
    As the Caribbean basin… BRETT:
    Mm-hmm. DEREK:
    Is growing right now, uh, three and a half hours, uh, flight from New York, two hours
    from Miami, two and a half from Atlanta, it’s… BRETT:
    For a two day period I’m able to get an hour and a half of his time and really have
    him focus on our business and allow me to focus on his business and then, hopefully,
    we’ll be able to do some business together. BRETT:
    (vo) Coming up next on Wall street Warriors… [Chyron-COMING UP] LANCE:
    I think he’s right on the edge, he just needs a kick in the ass to get him over. MALE: (on speaker)
    How much U.S. would that be? JAMES:
    Nine hundred and thirty thousand. LANCE:
    You do have to be ballsy. That separates the men from the boys. BRETT:
    One of the things I want to do is try to understand more of the life of one of my clients. So what am I doin’ wrong? This is what you call business. (laughs) DEREK:
    (laughs) [COMMERCIAL BREAK] [Back to the offices of FXCM…] BORIS:
    So, everybody’s in unison that we’re gonna go one-thirty-nine on the Euro this week? Yes? You see thirty-nine before end of the week? FEMALE:
    Yeah, yeah. I think it’ll be pretty bullish for it. BORIS:
    (overlapping) Okay. LAETITIA:
    Well, I’m looking at the Euro dollar pair. I’m just gonna look at some of the news
    that came out today to see if it had an affect on how, um, the currency pair traded. I kinda like technical analysis. KATHY:
    With Laetitia, we’re basically showing her how the market works, what drives fluctuations
    in the currency market. We’re teaching her about how we write and
    the thought process that happens in our research and analysis. Also, we want to help her become a good trader. …data is released because our job here is
    we always say that we’re traders first and analysts second. We like to put ourselves in the shoes of our
    clients and a lot of our research is very trading oriented. So, let’s go ahead and get started. LAETITIA:
    Manufacturers rose their price for the ninth month in August. Everybody rose point three percent in July. Investment lending also decreased six point
    eight percent. On Bloomberg they thought that the Bank of
    Japan would not, uh, raise interest rates, and on a yearly basis it rose two point six
    percent. What I found was that the decrease was mainly
    due to expectations of, like, higher interest rates. KATHY:
    Okay. Fantastic. So, that’s the way I want you to think. LAETITIA:
    Okay. KATHY:
    And so when we do this again tomorrow, what you want to do is look at the currency market
    reaction. [Exterior sequence of shots] [Back to Brett in the Dominican Republic…] BRETT:
    I rent a house in the Hamptons that costs me a hundred thousand dollars for three months
    for a seven bedroom house. It’s nice, but this is, this is way nicer
    than what the Hamptons is. It’s great to be out here in the Dominican
    Republic to relax a little bit, enjoy. It’s great when you can combine business
    with relaxation a little bit. I’ve got a couple days to try to understand
    more of the life of, you know, one of my clients. I’m starting to learn a little bit more
    about his properties. DEREK:
    Everything from the middle of the road over is also land that we’ve kept. We’ve sat on this property for years. We’ve got enough inventory in this location,
    so now we’ll sell of the rest of this. It’s gorgeous, isn’t it? BRETT:
    Yeah. DEREK:
    We’re just about to come into Ocean World, and here’s the entrance to the park. BRETT:
    Oh, this is neat, the little waterfall thing. (laughs) No ragtops. DEREK:
    Yeah, exactly. BRETT:
    That keeps those scooters out. DEREK:
    The best way to do it is to leave here at dusk… BRETT:
    Yeah. DEREK:
    Have cocktail and dinner, uh, prepared on, on the yacht on the way over. BRETT:
    Sure. DEREK:
    Go to bed and you wake up and you’re at some deserted island. BRETT:
    (laughs) That’s awesome. Derek wanted us to see a different perspective
    of the island so he took us out on his boat. DEREK:
    Come on aboard, Brett. BRETT:
    It’s a beautiful boat, goes somewhere around thirty-five knots. This is definitely not a bad way to spend
    a Saturday in, uh, November. So, what am I doin’ wrong, this is what
    you call business. DEREK:
    (laughs) BRETT:
    One of the things I want to do is learn more about my client’s assets, what he has here,
    what’s important to him, to try to find ways that I can actually add value to his
    business. We really feel that we have the breadth and
    gamut of understanding to help a business in any capacity they need, that we have everything
    in house. This was finally a time where there are no
    distractions around. A great opportunity to really sit and discuss
    his business, my business. We invest in everything we’re doing so you
    know we are heavily aligned and have a lot of skin in the game. DEREK:
    That’s what I really like is the fact that you guys are personally, uh, uh, vested in,
    in the project, it’s, it’s, it’s not a fund where there’s just a fund manager,
    uh, sitting there, uh, ro— BRETT:
    Collecting fees. DEREK:
    Rolling products in and collecting fees. [Back to the Stock Exchange…] [All yelling and talking at the same time] LARRY:
    I’ve been on the American Stock Exchange as well as the New York Board of Trade. I’ve been basically trading for eighteen
    years, my entire career. ALLY:
    You come here when you’re young and you clerk for somebody. You learn how to trade from your trader that
    you’re clerking for. I did that for a while. I made enough money so that I went out on
    my own. I would say half the people down here back
    themselves. It’s my money, if I lose it, it’s my money. MALE:
    Not a lot of representatives of large firms. I guess the risk of blowing out is too big. Most people who come here lose their money
    and go away. What you see here are the survivors. JESSICA: (on phone)
    Yeah, on the day, thirty-eight to fifty is the range. It’s kind of a weird atmosphere now because
    the stock market has been bobbling around. It’s like we had a relatively neutral to
    unfriendly report that was released this morning. (yelling) Hey! Fifty more [word?] There’s more to cotton in the world than
    we had expected and yet today we rallied, so a lot of people are a little bewildered,
    they kind of thought we would sell off a hundred points. Instead, we actually rallied a hundred points. LARRY:
    We have a pretty big rally going on in other commodities right now, cotton, all the grains
    are up pretty substantially, um, so, you know, maybe getting a spill over affect here. We’re position well here. This is absolutely perfect for us. [Exterior sequence of shots] [Back to James and Lance] [Chyron-Jim and Lance are about to make a
    $1 million call] LANCE:
    What’s that? We’ve got a guy, he’s a big fish, you
    know what I mean? He’s one of the heavy hitters that we like
    to have in the book. JAMES:
    What we’re gonna do today is we’ll get him back on the phone, we’ve had several
    conversations with him, he’s one of our larger clients overseas. Uh, he doesn’t have a big account with us
    but he’s capable of a very large account. LANCE:
    He owns five thousand shares of SanDisk, a quarter million of his money. That, that’s a drop in the Atlantic to a
    guy like this. Now we want his real money. JAMES:
    We’ll try to bring him up to somewhere around thirty thousand shares, uh, it’ll be about
    a, a million dollar investment. LANCE:
    We haven’t pitched him twenty different ideas. We’ve stuck with one main story, SanDisk. He likes the company. I think he’s right on the edge, he just
    needs that little kick in the ass to get him over. JAMES:
    If we did get the trade, it’d be great for our group, another million dollars in the
    management, another twenty-five thousand shares of the stock. I’d be very happy to have that, especially
    at times like these when we’re gettin’ beat up in the market. To have a good day really helps, you know,
    because this, bein’ a stock broker, it’s all peaks and valleys and certainly right
    now it’s a valley. (into phone) Hello, Michael? MICHAEL: (on speaker)
    Speaking. JAMES:
    Uh, Michael, how are you? MICHAEL:
    Hey, boys, I’m great, thanks. LANCE:
    Just looking to touch base with you real quick. I know we had numerous conversations about
    SanDisk. We’re tradin’ around thirty-seven right
    now. I know you’re not too happy with that, we’re
    down about fifteen percent. But, obviously, with the market correction,
    it’s given us a great opportunity to step back in and buy some shares at a, uh, cheap
    level. MICHAEL: (on speaker)
    Yes, you guys I’ve had much time. I’ve actually got Nigel with me. LANCE:
    I think Jim had a brief conversation with Nigel. [Chyron-Nigel is the financial advisor] JAMES:
    How ya doin’, Nigel? NIGEL: (on speaker)
    Alright, mate. JAMES:
    Good to hear. Last time we spoke, uh, we were talkin’
    about trimmin’ it down to twenty-five thousand shares. Uh, you’d be lookin’ at a cash outlay
    right about nine hundred and thirty thousand. LANCE:
    Just a touch under a million. NIGEL: (on speaker)
    Okay. LANCE:
    With commissions and everything. Nigel, you’re a technical guy, this (beep)
    chart looks like a slingshot pointed at the moon right now. NIGEL: (on speaker)
    I don’t disagree. LANCE:
    I didn’t think you would, Nigel. MICHAEL: (on speaker)
    We are thinking maybe ninety days on this one, boys. JAMES:
    We could be out of half the position as early as three weeks, the rest we need to hold on
    for ninety days. MICHAEL: (on speaker)
    Can I just put you on hold one second? JAMES:
    Go ahead. [COMMERCIAL BREAK] [Back to James and Lance…] MICHAEL: (on speaker)
    Um, how much U.S. would that be? LANCE:
    Just a touch under a million. MICHAEL: (on speaker)
    Can I just put you on hold one second? JAMES:
    Go ahead. MICHAEL: (on speaker)
    Sounds, uh, you sound pretty confident about this one. JAMES:
    Absolutely. We couldn’t be more confident. We wouldn’t have you on the phone if that
    wasn’t the case. LANCE:
    You know, Mike, give us a shot at your real money here, and ninety days from now, if you
    still don’t like what we have to offer and we haven’t proven ourselves to you, uh,
    we’ll talk about sending you some money back, but, uh, you know, a million dollars
    for you, uh, with your two hundred million dollar net worth is really a drop in the Atlantic. Alright? So— MICHAEL: (on speaker)
    Okay, let’s get the twenty-five, uh, today. Give me seven days to get the wire in ‘cause
    I’m out of the country tomorrow. So I will, uh, get the wire out next week. Okay? JAMES:
    Okay, perfect. LANCE:
    (overlapping) Very good. JAMES:
    Thanks for the vote of confidence. Enjoy your trip. MICHAEL: (on speaker)
    Yeah, thank you. JAMES:
    Alright, Mike. LANCE:
    Alright Mike. Goodbye. JAMES:
    Perfect. LANCE:
    Well done, money. JAMES:
    Yep. LANCE:
    Good job. JAMES:
    Alright. LANCE:
    So, that’s, uh, that’s Mike, probably the largest guy we have in our book right
    now. We’ve been workin’ on him for quite a
    while and he finally set it on just doin’ just a touch under a million so… JAMES:
    Yeah. I don’t know what it is about that guy and
    this doesn’t usually happen, but he seems to like us. You know, it just makes doin’ business that
    much easier. I don’t know if he gets a kick out of the
    fact that we’re, you know, aggressive with him or what it is but— LANCE:
    The accent, I don’t know what it is, but (laughs) JAMES:
    But he’s always been pretty easy on us, you know, the stock’s down and he’s buyin’
    more so… LANCE:
    You know, we make him some money, who knows what’s after this, you know, ‘cause you’ve
    got a two hundred million dollar net worth against a million bucks, it’s, uh, it’s
    a small token but, you know, we make him thirty, forty percent here, who knows? Maybe next time it’s ten million, so we
    work our way up, one foot in front of the other. [Exterior sequence of shots] [Back to Larry at the Stock Exchange…] LARRY:
    Had a pretty good rally in orange juice today. We were able to sell some crawl spreads which
    really fits our position well. (to Male) No, go switch back to here. After the last down move, we were able to
    clean it up, make the money back that we lost and now we’re way ahead on that. (to Male) You’re up, you’re up eight-ticks. It’s been a pretty fun ride watchin’ this
    thing droppin’ from a dollar eighty down to a dollar ten. JESSICA:
    (yelling) Thirty and forty-five. Thirty and forty-five. This morning got a little bit crazy. They didn’t think that as much cotton was
    gonna show up on this report. The first knee jerk reaction was, oh, we gotta
    sell this market, and that happened this morning but, and then it sort of worked its way back
    up. The market’s rallied and I think we have
    to attribute it somewhat to the outside grain markets [Exterior sequence of shots] [Back to Laetitia at FXCM…] LAETITIA:
    We went over the, uh, some of the indicators that came out, um, like the numbers that came
    out. BORIS:
    (overlapping) Overnight? LAETITIA:
    Yeah. So, yeah, we just, like, talked about their
    significance. BORIS:
    Well, our plan with you is to make sure that, you know, one, you understand basically how
    these things operate, what moves these things up and down, how they trade. And the most important thing that I really
    wanted to do is to make sure that every time you had a trade idea, you were doing it for
    a reason. It’s very important to make sure that you
    at least have a rational, reasonable approach. You know? Um, even if it’s completely wrong. You know, I’ve seen a few accounts, literally,
    taken ten thousand dollars and ran up to millions of dollars, but I’ve seen hundreds more
    cases where they’ve taken a million dollars and run it down into ten thousand. It’s a business, really, of being wrong. Woody Allen had this great quote, he said
    ninety percent of life is just showing up. And ninety percent of trading is just staying
    alive until you catch the one, two, three good trades that really make it, you know,
    make it worthwhile for you. Never be afraid about losing money small. What’s absolutely unforgivable is to have
    five, six, seven winners in a row and then give it all back on one stupid, stubborn trade. LAETITIA:
    Yeah. BORIS:
    You know, markets never make it easy for you to make money. [Exterior sequence of shots] [Back to Brett in the Dominican Republic…] BRETT:
    All they want is a good stable return of their money, transparency, good management, good
    accounting, good reporting, insurance companies. Other than that, the only other type of investors
    I want are strategic people, people that we can help their business and they can help
    our business and we just, we just work together growing the funds. I knew I had him really focused when he started
    asking some very pointed questions about my business. DEREK:
    Now what about your management team? Tell me a little bit about that. BRETT:
    Sure. I, that’s one of the things I pride ourselves
    on because at the end of the day, that’s what builds our business… As he learned more about what my business
    was as I’d hope, um, he came up with a lot of ideas of how we can actually work together. …and the way we’ve been expanding with,
    um, getting into founding some, uh, denoble banks and traditional commercial banks, really
    can create some good synergies. If you need bank financing, we can help you. If you private equity capital, you know, we
    can help you. So it’s, it’s interesting how we can sort
    of work back and forth within assets that we have, you know, either control or a strong
    influence over. DEREK:
    Is, is there a general, um, um, placement figure that, that, that, that you guys look
    for? BRETT:
    At the end of all the meetings, I think he’s really excited in some of the banking work
    that we do. DEREK:
    …uh, how much you would invest in a company. BRETT:
    Sure. DEREK:
    And, and… BRETT:
    That’s what business was always about to me, you . Until you have that first actionable
    step, it’s hard to really take off. DEREK:
    You know, just on some of the points that we’ve spoken about today, uh, it’s very
    clear that there’s gonna be several, uh, parallels that we’re gonna be able to work
    with into the future. BRETT:
    The key is, I think, at the end of all this that we have that first actionable step, there’s
    something he’s excited about and we have a follow up time line looking to have him
    come into an investment opportunity with us within the next two weeks. DEREK:
    …uh, and we’re certainly lookin’ forward to workin’ with ya. BRETT:
    Definitely. Pleasure, Derek. [Back to James and Lance in New York] LANCE:
    You low balled him, dude. JAMES:
    You would say that. LANCE:
    Totally took the easy way out. Did he not Garrett? So anytime we have somethin’ good happen
    in our favor, you know, a nice trade, we do a nice bit of commission for the day, we always
    like to go out, unwind a little bit, maybe have a couple beers. My mom coulda got a million out of him. JAMES:
    I’ll tell you what, I get deals done, you guys talk about what we coulda, shoulda done. LANCE:
    I tell ya what, big shot, why don’t you get the beers, then. Since you’re gettin’ (beep) done. [Cut to Lance, James and Garrett in a bar] JAMES:
    Alright, boys, good job today. LANCE:
    Yeah. (unintelligible) JAMES:
    We need about five more of those this month and, uh, bad market be damned, we’ll make
    some money this year. LANCE:
    Right. JAMES:
    We’re always tryin’ to add high net wealth individuals to our book. A lot of times we’ll be dealin’ with smaller
    guys, you know, maybe they’ll send in a hundred thousand here, a hundred thousand
    there, so when you actually get a guy to send in a million dollars on one trade on one phone
    conversation it’s not just relieving but it’s a sales euphoria. You know, it’s a sales job, in a way. It’s peaks and valleys, man. Definitely in the valley right now. We can make it back to a peak, we’ll be
    in good shape. There’s lots of days where it’s tough,
    we’re sayin’ this is down or whatever stock room’s down. You gotta enjoy the good times, that’s for
    damn sure. [END CREDITS] MALE:
    He was the first broker on the New York rubber exchange in 1880. MALE:
    You know, they’re real people. They’re bottom feeders. That’s the only reason I come down here,
    not for the money, it’s the camaraderie. LANCE:
    These are a couple of our account openers. They get to bickerin’ and arguing and talkin’
    and laughin’ and cuttin’ up, so it’s like, Jesus, you guys are worse than Bert
    and Ernie. And then I kinda looked at ‘em and they
    kinda look like Bert and Ernie. And you guys can clearly see, there’s a
    lot of resemblances here between these two guys and Bert and Ernie.

    Stock Trading Quick Tip: Are You a Puppet Trader?
    Articles, Blog

    Stock Trading Quick Tip: Are You a Puppet Trader?

    August 14, 2019


    (swift echoes) – Hey it’s Clay Trader at claytrader.com In this quick tip video I
    want to ask you the question, “Are you a puppet trader?” So, what I have here is one of my daughter’s toys and it’s a puppet. I think its name is Stomper. So here’s a puppet, right? I hope everybody understands
    how a puppet works. But I wanna quickly just go over the logistics of it in case you’re not sure. Where do I shove my hand when I want to take
    control of this puppet? Nope, kinda gotta, nope, work my way up at the backside. And now, look: I have full control of the puppet. So my question to you: “Are you a puppet trader?” I want to go over this
    list; then you know, depending on how you answer these, you’re gonna know whether or not you’re letting somebody else
    kind of shove their hands. Well, you know where I’m going with that. So, let’s break it down
    into two categories. First we have: (chalk writing) Puppet and on the next we actually have traders. ‘Cause as you will soon find out, puppets are not traders. They’re just puppets. And now I want to break things down into a couple separate categories. The first is when it comes to stocks, you know you gotta find ’em right? (chalk writing) So the find. As a puppet trader, or as really, I should
    stop saying puppet trader. Just as a puppet, when you’re in this stage of finding, those people want (chalk writing) hot stock picks You know, that’s what they’re looking for hot stock picks. (chalk writing) They’re looking for all
    those free newsletters, all that stuff. And they just want to be told, “Hey, what’s the hot
    stock pick out there?” And the key thing here is, they want to be told what to play. It may seem like an
    insignificant word but, it’s actually a very crucial word. They just want to be told, “Hey, what to play.” So they want hot stock
    picks, what to play. Now a real trader, they’re gonna be looking for
    just simply broad alerts. “Hey, you got any sort of
    broad stuff out there?”. You know, very general, very broad. And the reason for that is, they just want to know what is in play. (chalk writing) So they don’t want to
    be told what to play, they don’t want to be told what to do. They just want, you know what’s in play, what could possibly make
    something worthwhile for me as a trader. So there’s the first difference. When it comes to the finding stage, puppets, you know, because, you know think about it. When you’re going to
    somebody else and saying, “Hey, tell me what to play
    I need a hot stock pick.” You are letting them shove their hands. You get the point. And you are becoming a puppet. Where as a trader is just saying, “Hey, shoot me some over broad ideas, broad alerts.” And you know what may be in play, and you know I’ll take it from there. Which transitions to the next section: the action stage. (chalk writing) So during the action stage, puppets just wanna know, “Hey, tell me a buy price.
    What price should I buy?” So, they don’t want to try to figure out an entry point. They’re just, “Hey I need a buy price. I need to know when to get in.” Again, so letting another trader kinda shove. Yeah, a puppet. Being told when to buy,
    that’s what they want. Whereas a trader, they don’t need to be told that because they have a strategy. They have a strategy, they have rules and all that stuff is going to tell them when they should buy, or heck, even if they should buy. They’re gonna know all that, because they have a strategy. They know what’s going on and remember, the difference. What’s in play, just because something is in play, doesn’t mean you have to play it. But the puppet, they wanna be told what to play. So that’s just the only
    thing that they know is okay, I’m being told to play this. So now I just need to know, “Tell me when to buy.” Whereas one of these alerts, because they’re broad, you know, yeah it’s in play. You know, no that doesn’t
    really fit my strategy, doesn’t fit my rules so
    I’m gonna pass on it. I’m not gonna buy. Huge difference here between a trader and a puppet. Next section. Is going to be managing. Once you get in a trade,
    you need to manage it. Now when it comes to puppets, you’re going to see this all the time. “Should I sell?”. They run around asking everybody that. Usually whoever gave them the
    hot stock pick or whatever, they’re bombarding them. “Hey should I sell? Should
    I hold? What’s going on?” They’re running around like a chicken with their head cut off
    or they’re being a puppet. They have no idea what’s going on. And whatever this person says, usually this person is gonna say “Hold, hold, hold”, because this person is
    usually selling stock to them. But that’s a whole different video. But regardless, “Should I sell?” that’s a very good clue that you’re just a frickin’ puppet if you get into a stock and then have no idea, “Should I sell? Should I
    hold? What should I do?” However, when it comes to a trader, (chalk writing) they just relax. Because again, they have a strategy in place. That strategy has rules. And the rules and strategies
    are going to tell them when they should sell. “Should they lock in profits now?, Should they wait to lock in profits? Do they need to get out ASAP? Do they need to let it ride?” All that stuff, is taken care of because
    they have a strategy. And that’s why, you know
    I’m always preachin’. Have a strategy, get educated. Because it’s very relaxing. It’s not stress-free
    when you know what to do. This person, pretty stressful. If you’re in a stock and
    don’t know what you should do, that is a very stressful situation. But that’s why they have to go back to their puppet master up here and say, “Hey tell me what to do?”. And then at the end of the day, maybe you’re new. And there’s nothing wrong with that. But it boils down to
    this question right here. I like to always use the proverb of fishing. So, if you have the attitude of (chalk writing) “Give me fish”. Well, I’ll give you, you know I’ll let you know what you should really probably be doing. ‘Cause really, in all honesty, there’s nothing wrong with that. And most people in the world do this. Just give me fish. And so I’m not gonna degrade that. But I’ll get to that in a second. However, the trader, and keep in mind this isn’t, you know if you’re somebody that’s new and just getting into things. They wanna say, (chalk writing) “Teach me to fish”. Hopefully you can see the difference. You know, the proverb. “Give a man to fish, he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish, he
    you know, eats forever”. So that’s their attitude. New person, they wanna be taught. Now, give? If this is you and
    you’re saying, you know, “Give me fish.” I just, “Give me a hot stock
    pick. Tell me when to buy. Tell me when to sell.” Go and get (chalk writing) a licensed financial advisor. I mean, you’re not.
    You’re not doing anything. You’re simply going to
    strangers on the internet and asking them, “What should I play? When should I buy? When should I sell?” That’s what a financial advisor does. Except, key word here. Licensed. These people, highly doubt they’re licensed. So for you to put your money, put your trust into somebody that’s Who, who knows? I don’t know, you might as well put it with somebody that’s licensed. That’s actually gone to school. That has a degree in this sort of stuff. My parents are right here. They don’t wanna trade. They just want, they say: “You know what, just give me fish. Tell me what’s best to do with my money to build wealth.” And there’s no shame in that, whatever. Like I said, most Americans are in “Give me fish.” They don’t want to bother
    with all this stuff. And that’s fine. But don’t trick yourself and say, with this attitude, “Yeah, I’m a trader.” No, you are a puppet. You are letting somebody else, you know I should probably put on a plastic glove. But, right here. Puppet. All these things. This is you. Whoever is giving you this, and whoever is telling you to do that, and whoever is telling you to do that is just controlling you. So don’t, don’t tell yourself
    that you’re a trader. Don’t run around calling
    yourself a trader. ‘Cause you’re not. You’re just, you know, you’re trying. You’re a puppet. I guess that’s the best way to put it. But, if you just are following the things in this category, then you are a trader. And again, if you’re getting started, it falls down to what’s
    your attitude right now? Just give me fish? Or do you wanna be taught how to fish? So, well if I insulted
    some people with this one I think I did my job. That’s what I was going for. But be honest with yourself. Are you a puppet? Or are you an actual trader? Or are you striving to
    be an actual trader? Or are you just striving
    to be, you know a puppet? Are you kind of you know, letting somebody snap their rubber glove and getting ready to take control of you? I don’t know, that’s up for you to answer. I’ll be the first to admit, I was a puppet when I first got started. I was looking for hot stock picks. You know, “What should
    I play? What to play?” And you know then I’d get in, and “Okay, well they told me to buy here, They said that was a good entry point. And you know they said
    that was the buy price.” And then all of a sudden, I didn’t know what to sell. So I’m trying to ask that per- I mean it was a disaster. And I realized that being in
    the puppet position is kinda. (exhales) It’s not very comfortable. So, I tried to get myself over here. And that’s what is gonna be sustaining. If, think about it. If stock trading was as
    easy as this category, there’d be all sorts of
    successful traders out there. It’d be a lot higher than 10 percent. But when you follower, or when you follow, you’re gonna get slaughtered. Sure it may work out on a couple trades, but in the long term. Again. If it was as easy as
    just becoming a puppet, going through all these steps, the success rate of traders would be much higher than 10 percent. So keep that in mind. Alright, I gotta be honest, I had a lot of fun making this one. But it is also a huge pet peeve of mine. And I just wanna hit myself in the face. ‘Cause like I said, when
    I first got started, I was in the puppet category but I’d tell friends and family, “Yeah I’m into trading, I’m a trader now.” Gimme a break. But. You know, so I did have fun. But as much fun as I had, it’s a very serious thing. I mean, I’m gonna go back to it. And I’m gonna repeat it again, ’cause it’s so crucial. If it’s, if trading was as easy
    as becoming a puppet, there’d be a lot more
    successful people out there. If you enjoyed this video, wanting you to do a couple things: First off, I’d click the like button if you’re watching this on YouTube. If you’re watching this on my site, claytrader.com, please click
    that share button up above. And also, leave your comments. There’s gotta be some comments
    out there for this one. So, maybe share some stories
    about when you were a puppet or maybe you think I’m
    full of crap right now and whatever, I mean if you wanna. Just, you know leave some comments. I wanna get a little
    discussion going on this one. Your thoughts in terms of
    puppets or actual traders. So thank you for watching. Remember, trade without emotion. Don’t be a puppet. (swift echoes)