Browsing Tag: Trading

    LEGO Steampunk Walking Ship (Strandbeest)
    Articles, Blog

    LEGO Steampunk Walking Ship (Strandbeest)

    November 19, 2019


    [walking noise] Hey everyone. Today I’m going to show you my latest LEGO
    creation, which is this walking machine. As you saw in the intro it is motorized, using
    the Power Functions system. Here’s the remote control. And, if we take a closer look you can see the infrared receiver here, the
    battery box here if we look underneath, you can see two M motors,
    one on either side. The wiring for the motors runs up through
    the frame, underneath the deck to connect to the infrared receiver here. Right now I have this resting on these two
    stands here just so I can more easily show you what’s
    going on but when it’s in action the entire weight
    is supported on these legs. The walking mechanism is basically the same
    as that developed by Theo Jansen If you’re not familiar with his incredible
    kinetic sculptures, you should really check them out. Um, I’ll put a link in the description for
    that. I can show you the legs in action while it’s
    on the stand here I’ll just turn the battery box on And now using the remote control, I can either
    control the right hand motor Forwards and backwards And also the left one [motor noise] So lets take a closer look at the legs So here I have a standalone model of one pair
    of legs So they’re connected in the middle to this
    central crank shaft which drives all the motion And as you can see the tip of each leg basically
    drags along the ground then lifts up and goes to it’s original point
    on the ground again Again, this is all based on the walking mechanism
    developed by Theo Jansen. The proportions of each segment in the leg
    are not exact to what he developed but I think this is about as close as you
    can get at this scale using what’s available in the LEGO system. I’ve also created step by step building instructions
    for how to build the walking frame If you want to check those out just to have
    a closer look at how it’s built or even try to build it yourself you can find those on
    my website. As you can see I’ve also themed this as a post apocalytic or retro future trading ship The cargo crane is fully functional It can rotate and slide along it’s base Each segment of the crane as well as the towball,
    can be independantly raised and lowered using the controls at the base That way you can load, unload or move cargo
    around on the ship On this side I have a cabin, for the captain. The roof can just come off The door opens and closes, as do the windows And there’s some stuff inside, which you’ll
    just have to imagine. The ladder also lowers and raises so people
    can get on and off the ship So that’s about it. I had a lot of fun building this model and
    I hope you enjoyed watching the video. Thanks again and we’ll see you next time. [walking noise]

    Why Today’s Market Is Unique But Signals a Coming Recession (w/ Tony Greer and Nick Sofocleous)
    Articles, Blog

    Why Today’s Market Is Unique But Signals a Coming Recession (w/ Tony Greer and Nick Sofocleous)

    November 5, 2019


    TONY GREER: I was hesitant to bring you out
    here on camera because I like to have my closest confidant in the stock market to myself, or
    at least as to myself since I can get you. Nick, I want to thank you. You’re one of the guys that I don’t make a
    major move in my portfolio unless I check with Nick. I don’t put on a size position unless I have
    spoken with Nick in the last 24 hours. And that has to do with your experience in
    the markets. I want to thank you for coming down today
    and sharing this with us, man. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Well, thanks very much for
    having me. It’s a pleasure to be here. TONY GREER: Yeah. So, let’s start right at the beginning. August of 1987, when you got your start in
    the markets. Take it away from there, man. The S&P at 340. Gold under 500. And US 10 Year Yields at 9%. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: So, yeah, fun times in in
    London. So, teenager, coming out of school. TONY GREER: How old? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: 17. TONY GREER: 17, right onto a desk. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Yeah, well, not quite but
    close. But as close as you can get. And it wasn’t on a desk and you weren’t on
    the phones because there weren’t enough phones for everybody. You weren’t in front of screens, because there
    weren’t enough screens for everybody. So, you had to work your way up. And that was post-Big Bang in London. There was some real jobs and real people in
    London in those mid80s. TONY GREER: And you get started right in the
    buy side, correct? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: I did get started on the
    buy side. I was very lucky. And there was some people that decided to
    take a bit of a punt from someone that was fairly good with numbers. That happened to be me. Yeah, it was a really fun time. The 25th of August 1987 was peak market, pre-crash
    of October ’87. I knew absolutely nothing. And everybody around me was busy. And they were busy learning. They were busy trading, they were busy assets-allocating. And then after August of ’87, in October of
    ’87, we came up with a bit of a crash. And those days were amazing. Because when you know nothing, you learn everything. So, through the days in London, there was
    the hurricanes in ’87. Lloyds of London was basically was touching
    go whether they were going to be around, they had massive losses, the crash of ’87 in the
    US stock market. And there was one particular day, I remember
    it. I turned around to a colleague of mine, really
    senior, great, great asset manager. And I turned at him and said, so, yesterday
    we were buying, but today we’re not. Can you explain that? And he politely asked me to sit down and mind
    my own business for a minute. TONY GREER: Stay out of the way for a bit. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: That’s right. That was right. So, it was ’87. TONY GREER: So now, you’re in the middle of
    the firing lines, there is a market crash that takes the S&P down 22% or so and we probably
    wallowed around those levels for the next year or two before I guess the S&P broke out
    again in 1990. But what stuck with you from back then? What lessons did you pull away from being
    in such a volatile market with such little education at the time? Because I know all of that gets flipped on
    its head to where we are today. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Right. That’s really interesting. What do you learn from ’87? You learn from really smart people in ’87
    to keep calm that if you can keep your head while all about are losing theirs, you’re
    going to be just fine. And that’s really difficult to do in high
    volatility environments. But that’s what I learned from ’87. TONY GREER: That’s a very good point. So, from there, you started making observations
    on markets, taking it very seriously and picking up some tools into your toolkit as you grow
    as a trader. So, into the early ’90s, we kicked the decade
    off with a war in the Gulf, we start moving into the very, very beginning of the internet
    boom, the infancy stages, I would say in the early ’90s, ’92, ’93. Tell me about your experience on the buy side
    as a young, now, someone in your early 20s going into that experience. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: So, 1990, you’ve got Gulf
    War I. And the experience from ’87 takes you into
    Gulf War I. Because when we started to rise in volatility
    in 1990, you could turn around today and say I’ve seen worse. So, all of a sudden, you weren’t panicking
    anywhere near as much as you were in ’87. Fast forward into now, you’re catching a bit
    of a wave of a bull market from ’91 through two, three and into ’94. So, now you’re into ’94. And you start getting an IPO calendar that
    is taking flight. So, every day, every week, you’ve got these
    red herrings coming through the post, and you’re having to read these red herrings,
    there’s no email, and you’re placing orders to buy these IPOs. And every day, there’s more IPOs. Now, history has told you if you could sit
    through ’87, through 1990 and ’91, you were in a bonanza situation in ’94 and into ’95. Fast forward, you start getting into the Fed
    cheap money, Greenspan doing everything that he can do to calm everybody. Then Greenspan turns around and says irrational
    exuberance. And you think the bubble is burst? Far from it. TONY GREER: Yeah, exactly. So, we keep going. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: And we keep going. We’re into 97- TONY GREER: Amazon is delivering
    everything to your house already. Starting with books and CDs, but we’re getting
    there. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Right. But then the real trades are, if you can hang
    on to the bull market in the US, your real trades are being driven by currencies and
    being driven by rates. So, with Russia having its troubles in ’97,
    the US didn’t care, as in the US stock market really didn’t care. Fast forward, ’98 and LTCM blows up. So, the lesson of ’97 into ’98 is as much
    as you think it matters in Russia, it doesn’t matter until it’s on your doorstep. And your doorstep was LTCM in ’98, which was
    another episode of if you can keep your head while all about are losing theirs, you were
    in great shape. Because then you rode late ’98 into ’99 into
    early 2000s. TONY GREER: So now, were you actively- do
    you recall yourself thinking about your first days as a trader and the stock market sort
    of crashing back then, back in October of ’87? Are you worrying about this the whole time? Are you seizing your opportunities on all
    the tips and stuff? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: It’s so funny you should
    say that, that’s so true. In your first experiences, you always think
    they’re going to be replicated very soon. And it’s good to have that as a mental record. But it’s fatal for being able to trade correctly,
    because you miss your opportunities. And that’s when you try to gauge when you
    have opportunities. Are you in a bull cycle? Are you in a bear cycle? Are asset prices going up? Are asset prices basically going down? By the way, asset prices going down might
    mean asset prices are just flat, which is what we have now. TONY GREER: So, the markets are rallying ferociously
    into ’98, ’99, toward the dot-com bubble, which we haven’t gotten to yet. But in 1999, I know you made a tremendous
    life decision to change time zones, life centers, and everything. Tell me what was that about? How did you pick yourself up from being so
    entrenched in the markets in London and saying, okay, we’re going overseas? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Yeah, that’s interesting. So, early ’99, I get a call from the company
    in New York, Sanford Bernstein. And they basically asked me, do you want an
    adventure, and I thought to myself, I’ve traded US now for ’99- probably eight years. I’ve been observant of the market now for
    12. If you want to be in the lion’s den for US
    equity trading, you have to be in New York. So, I said, I’d love to be part of that adventure,
    they were kind enough to say we’d love to have you. And off I came from London to New York. Now, the interesting thing about moving countries-
    and a lot of your viewers will see this, a lot of people will understand what I’m saying
    is it’s damn difficult. TONY GREER: I can imagine. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: It’s damn difficult. So, the people that you thought that you knew
    well in a city of any time, could be 24 million people, you can note that 12 million here,
    24 in the tri-state area, you actually don’t know anyone, it can be the loneliest experience. So, what that teaches you is take everything
    one step at a time, don’t cross bridges you don’t need to cross until you’re asked to
    cross them. Because there’s too much to take on board. It’s a big city, you’re being asked to be
    a professional in a professional firm, in a professional setting, where quite frankly,
    you’re the underdog. And you have to understand you’re the underdog. And you have to fight again and again, not
    only with the market, but with the people that are in New York, it’s you- you almost
    feel it’s you versus the world. But you can’t take on the world at once, you
    have to do it one step at a time. It was a huge life lesson. It’s one step at a time. Trying to do anything well take steps. And that was a huge lesson for me. TONY GREER: Well, I would imagine it was a
    huge challenge, both shifting sides of the pond, but you’re also shifting sides of the
    business, from the buy side to the sell side. You’re going from making decisions that affect
    the portfolio to make sure that you’re making money, or at least protecting yourself to
    now, establishing client relationships, figuring out how to protect your clients, figuring
    out how to educate them. Were you ready to go on the sell side with
    your sort of bag of market tricks? Or was it very much a process of saying, oh,
    this is a totally different job now, I’ve got to really learn everything from scratch. What was it for you? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: No, it wasn’t relearn everything. What you did is you took your information
    that you’ve gathered in previous years, you took your personal stats that you looked at
    on your screens that you made yourself, because they worked for you in how you looked at things,
    and then you applied it to the job at hand. And what you tried to do in those days, and
    it’s the same for today, is help. You try to help. You try to use that information to help so
    that other people could maybe be successful using your tools. They may not find those tools to be helpful
    at all. But invariably, they did. And invariably, they became as successful
    as they wanted to be. And you were part of that success, which was
    tremendous. TONY GREER: Yes, I know. I have some remembrances of that from being
    on the sell side on a sort of later date. But it was very rewarding to be able to say,
    look, this is what I’ve learned in the markets, you guys have got to look at this and to point
    out a blind spot to somebody and have them say, oh, that was really helpful. You have got a seemingly endless number of
    market tools that you use to look at to formulate your views. When you and I speak on the phone, there’s
    a sort of recurrence of let’s look at this again. And let’s look at this again. And where are we in cyclical versus non-cyclical? And what just happened in the tick index? And what has gone on with green to red days
    or red to green days? Can you tell me how that became part of your
    vernacular in any way? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Yeah. It’s amazing, really. Because when you’re in a bull market, when
    your growths are going bottom left, top right. And you’ve missed the first move. How do you get in? You know you’re in a bull market, how do you
    get in? So, I’ve tried to figure out how there were
    these consecutive down days. And this all took me- I don’t know- probably
    took me two or three years to understand that when you had consecutive down days, sometimes
    at the end of that, it was the right time to buy, but nobody could tell me why it was
    the right time to buy. Why would they have these consecutive down
    days? Why were there three or four or five? Or in the crash, there was eight? Or nine? Why would they be this amount? And what was the difference between why there
    was three, or five? So, if I bought on the end day of the third
    consecutive down day, why did it go down on day four? Was I wrong on day three? If I was wrong, day three, why was I wrong
    on day three? So, I needed something that gave me an indicator
    of that’s a waterfall, that’s everybody selling at the same time, so that I could then go,
    I will take the other side to that trade, because I know that that usually marks somewhere
    near the zenith of a move. So, I found this index, the tick index, and
    it is the amount of stocks that have just moved higher than the last price versus lower
    than the last price. And then I had to find a number that equated
    to the bottom of the waterfall. TONY GREER: When was the selling the most
    intense? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Right. Whatever was holding the market up, when did
    that go? When did the floor fall out? And if I was bullish, I wanted to catch the
    bottom of the waterfall. I didn’t want to catch everything going down. That’s a falling knife. Neither did I want to wait to see if it worked
    out sometime later. Because then, all of a sudden, you don’t get
    that wonderful V and your great entry points. TONY GREER: At the bottom, they’re near the
    bottom. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: That’s right. So, the tick index was something that I looked
    at, and when I might be able to use that. And then it was a case of what’s the number? What’s the negative number of that? TONY GREER: How intense of a reading do you
    have to get on the downside or the upside, obviously, but we’re talking about getting
    in on a waterfall. So, I’m assuming it’s down. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Absolutely right. That took me another three years to figure
    out because I was using 1000, negative thousand. And then I would find that there was too many
    days that you’d had negative 1000. And it wasn’t timing anything. TONY GREER: They weren’t determinable? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: No. It was just noise. So, then I went to 1100. And then I had to wait for the days to see
    if 1100 worked. 1100 didn’t work. So, then I went to negative 1200 going look,
    at some point, I’m going to get the number. 1200 didn’t work. And then I had to wait for another set of
    days. And by the way, you only get three consecutive
    down days about 15 times a year. You only get four, therefore, eight, five,
    six and you’re at seven, eight, nine. You just read, you don’t see a lot of. So, always having to wait to prove whether
    this was right, or this was wrong. So, I came up with this number 1300. And I remember the first time it worked and
    within a bull market. And as soon as it worked and as soon as we
    bounced, a light bulb went off. It was an utter light bulb moment. And then it had to be proven. And I was in a bull market. So, the cardsTONY GREER: You’re getting the
    chances to prove it. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: The cards were stacked in
    my favor. And I knew that, so that you did want to buy. So, you had the most important function of
    I want to be a buyer, now, was a function of trying to find where I could get as close
    to an entry point as I wouldn’t get stopped out. I found this negative 1300. I also had a rule of it had to be three consecutive
    down days. NowTONY GREER: Discipline is being applied. That’s all. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: That’s what I’m doing. There’s going to be days when you have negative
    1300 ticks and you go, what just happened? But that’s not an entry point. That’s a place to ask a question. I ended up finding this negative 1300 tick
    on at least the third consecutive down day. And during a bull market, it’s bulletproof. Now subsequently, I’ve learned that something
    gets triggered within the market to pull some either strategies that otherwise would be
    applied, they’re not allowed to be applied. Because you see the whole screen go slower. It’s like a go slow market as soon as you
    hit that negative 1300 tick in a bull market. The last 18 months, we’ve seen this. On October last year, we saw that that negative
    1300 tick was applied, was triggered. And then we had negative 1400. TONY GREER: That’s where we had several days
    below that. Reading the mood, eight or 10. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Now, this is where it gets
    interesting. You say, well, that rule applies. Surely. Yes, in a bull market. Totally. So, why did it break? Well, because we broke the market in October,
    and it manifested in December. That was brilliant information from the first
    week of October for me. And I looked at it and went, we got a broken
    market and discussed it with you, discussed it with friends, discussed it with other market
    participants. And then we get to Christmas Eve. And you go, wait a minute, we’re doing something
    very strange here. What all we’re doing is going down, going
    down, there’s going to be a divergence and sure is X is X, Christmas Eve boxing day we
    got that divergence. And you knew at that point, with that divergence,
    with those amount of panics that something somewhere wasn’t right. TONY GREER: Don’t fade the Fed, immediately
    jumped in your face when Steven Mnuchin reached out to six banks. We don’t want to fight the Fed after a 500-point
    slide either. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: If you learn anything from
    2008, when the Fed are involved in walking up the steps of the Capitol, you owe phone
    calls to liquidity providers. Yeah, you don’t want to fight back. And, look, we all do because we all go, this
    is a bigger problem. But it’s not a bigger problem until it gets
    to be a bigger problem. TONY GREER: That’s what’s been so interesting
    in why I wanted to get you in here approximately 10 years since the day I met you, roughly. Now, if we look at that, that has been over
    the recent 10 Year bull market, the recent 10 Year recovery. But what was so amazing about calling Nick
    up on the phone when the market would dip, I would call you up and be like, is this the
    one or what? And you would give me the parameters. No, we haven’t got the 13. And then you’d say you call me back after
    two or three down days, we’d get the tick. And you’d be like that was it. That’s what we were looking for. That was it right there with 100% certainty. And it’s because you tried the theory over
    the last 20 years. And because you knew where we were, but I
    think mainly because you had identified the type of bull market that we were in, which
    was going to be at that point from ’09 to call it ’15 was essentially a Fed QE-driven
    market. And you knew we were in a bull market. So, you got the tick readings. And every time I spoke to you, it was like,
    yep, this is the reading right here, boom, let’s go, we’re going back up. And to guys like me, who are looking and seeing
    things break down below moving averages, and you’re starting to see oscillators just starting
    to curl over and things like that. I’m a momentum guy so I’m looking for this
    to continue. And you saved me about 100 times in the last
    10 years, saying, nah, this isn’t the one because we’re still within the context of
    this bull market. And that was a really educational experience
    for me. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: So, we’ve had plenty of discussions. But when people say to me, the bull market
    started on March 9 th, 2009, I’m like did it really? Okay, prices went- that was the closing the
    low of the S&P. Okay. But does that mean that 1972 was the start
    of the bull market in the ’70s? I don’t know anybody that lived in the ’70s
    that thought they were living in an equity bull market bearing in mind that Baron’s had
    the end of equities in 1982. Because nobody was in a bull market in the
    ’70s when it came to equities, you’re in a commodity bull market. So, fast forward to 2009, I can apply the
    same action from March 2009 as 1972 when you read some of the articles written in 1972. And you say, well, was it really the start
    of the bull market? And my answer to that is I don’t think it
    was. So, then someone will ask, well, when was
    the start of the bull market? And I will say it’s the fourth of October
    2011. TONY GREER: Why that date? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: So, we’ve gone through 2010,
    2011 QE forever. We just had the debt downgrade in the July
    into the August. So, August, I think was August 3 rd , 4th,
    it was the Friday that we had the debt downgrade. And none of us knew what was going to happen. None of us knew what was going to happen to
    Treasuries. Now, Treasuries became bid only. And they just got downgraded. Amazing. But you do have something then that’s on your
    doorstep again. It’s LTCM. So, you go back and take your LTCM playbook
    and go, what happened then? It’s now one of those debt. We didn’t care of a debt downgrade in European
    sovereigns. Didn’t matter to us. We were like, oh, that’s a shame. Doesn’t matter. It’s not on our doorstep. Now, it’s on our doorstep. What do we do? LTCM was on our doorstep. What did we do? And then you look for times when you start
    discounting bad news, which is what you said earlier about the trade from red to green. You get a really bad jobs number on the fourth
    of October 2011. It was a stinker. And we went down to 1075 intraday, and it
    was awful. And everybody threw their toys out the pram,
    and then we started to rally. And then your ears perk up and your eyes become
    glued to the screens. And all of a sudden, you’re green, at the
    end of the day, on the worst non-pharm payroll print, you can imagine. TONY GREER: Right, that’s the signal. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: At that point you go, we’ve
    just discounted bad news. TONY GREER: That’s it. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: That’s it. TONY GREER: That’s your ego moment. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: The cycle, at that point,
    for me, was the yield curve. Because it had done everything you should
    have done. TONY GREER: Flat like a pancake. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Well, it had steepened all
    the way from 2009, all the way into 2011. You’d steepened it dramatically. You’d cut rates, you’d had QE forever, that
    was still ongoing, rates were at zero. And then all of a sudden, you had 225 basis
    points of curve. And if you want to look at anything, 225 basis
    points of curve, somebody is going to get reflated. TONY GREER: And that’s what happened. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: And that’s what happened. And so, all of a sudden, if you can reflate
    your financial system, which is they were quite successful in doing it, whether we like
    it or whether we don’t, they were quite successful in doing it. And then you had the curves on your side,
    financial systems on your side, Fed’s on your side, who are you fighting against? And invariably, you’re fighting against yourself. TONY GREER: We know that answer. Because it’s very difficult to pay a new high,
    it’s very difficult. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: It’s very difficult. Until you do, and you get rewarded for it. And you go you know what? Nicely done. Because nobody gets the first trade consistently. You can go like, you know what? I just missed that. I’ve missed that one. But if I’m thinking about this correctly,
    I’m going to be okay getting involved. TONY GREER: There’s the lesson that you taught
    me ultimately, is that you don’t have to be afraid if you miss the first five minutes
    of a bull market, correct? You don’t have to be afraid because it’s going
    to have nine innings and there are going to be nine innings that you can make money in. And if we play it all right and we stick to
    our guidelines and stick to our discipline, it’s okay to miss the first five. That’s why when all these other markets have
    sprung to life, like crypto and cannabis, I just got very patient. And we’re able to say, all right, we’re going
    to get a chance to get in here. We’ll get a chance, we’re going to wait for
    everybody to throw the towel in. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Applying all of those lessons. TONY GREER: Yeah. It’s just deciding are going to be bullish
    crypto and cannabis, or we’re going to be bearish? And we decided to be bullish, we applied those
    lessons and have had a number of opportunities. So, that’s why I feel like that is the most
    valuable trading lesson that you’ve taught me. And I’ve been in off for 10 years about it. So, but like you said, things started to change
    October last year into December. Let’s get up to speed now and talk about where
    the markets are versus where they are in the Fed. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: So, there’s a couple of things
    that in the last 18 months, that you can just look at, and it could be price appreciation,
    the global growth momentum going into the start of 2018. And people forget how great January 2018 was,
    we were almost parabolic. Almost parabolic. And at that point, I was like, oh, these are
    usually the ends of moves not start of moves. This is when everybody’s in the same boat
    and on the same side of the boat. TONY GREER: Right. And that can continue for a period but still
    worth making note over. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Yeah. And then for some reason, still tricky to
    discern. We hit a bit of a speed bump in that February,
    we blew up the VIX ETN. And then we rebounded. And then through the summer, the broader market
    was rebounding. But for me, we weren’t being led by those
    wonderful cyclicals. In a great bull market, you want to be led
    by the cyclicals. Those are the high growth earners where you
    are going to be well rewarded. TONY GREER: That gives you confidence that
    there’s going to be more to follow. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: That’s absolutely right. So, we started being led by some safer havens. The more that we were going up, the more we
    were being led by the safer havens. And the more cyclicals were being left in
    the dust. So, all of a sudden, the hairs on the back
    of your neck go up. And you go, wait a minute, what’s happening? And you couldn’t really figure it out. Couldn’t really figure it out. The Fed were raising rates, the numbers were
    ok. But if your GDP numbers are okay and your
    growth numbers are okay and your PMIs are okay, why aren’t the cyclicals running? Fast forward into September, and we start
    dislocating some currencies, and we start dislocating some bond markets because they’re
    pricing for cuts, because they see something around the globe that isn’t global growth. So, all of a suddenTONY GREER: First time? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: For first time in eight years. First time in eight years, they don’t see
    global growth. They don’t see global growth, bond market
    starts to sniff out a Fed cut. And yet, the Fed are like, no, we’re going
    to raise. Then we get a very decent PMI in August, September-
    probably the first week of September. And the bond market dislocates. 10s go from 280 up through 3%. And quickly go up to 320. Now, there’s no problem with having 10 Year
    paper trading from 280 to 320. If I told you that was over the next 25 years,
    you’d be like it’s not a problem. Going 280 from 320 in three weeks, yeah, you
    have a velocity issue. You’re going to have a problem somewhere with
    volatility. And you’re going to have a problem somewhere
    with equities. And that’s what we found in October, all of
    a sudden, something broke in October. No one’s entirely sure what it was. But we could see it. TONY GREER: Yep. We had the trigger of Khashoggi disappearing
    and oil coming apart. That was one slight trigger that started. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Entirely plausible. TONY GREER: Yeah. Just an idea. Maybe it wasn’t, maybe it was, who knows,
    but the timing is similar. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: It’s all part of the tapestry. It just stitch. And you will have your triggers that are on
    your screens and I will have my triggers that are on my screens. And all of a sudden, we might come to the
    same conclusion. But looking at different things. And when that happens you’ve got something. It’s always the same. Somebody comes from the left, you come from
    the right, you come to the same conclusion. And you go, can you talk me through how you
    got there? And I’ll talk you through how I got there. And that’s where we find ourselves. TONY GREER: That’s where we find ourselves. And we find ourselves I think, in an increasingly
    uncertain position due to the President. For the first time, we’ve got a White House
    that is barking like a dog at the Fed Chairman, floating stories about trying to decide whether
    or not they can legally remove the Fed Chairman. It’s a new paradigm, and it has become the
    focus of the markets. How’s the White House and the Fed are interacting? Are they getting along? Is Powell going to listen? Is Trump going to win? What’s going to happen? Clearly, the markets have won over a lot of
    fans into thinking that the President is really going to have a serious control over the Fed. We just went from pricing in four rate hikes
    to pricing in three rate cuts in a year. And I feel like the Fed is compromised now. But what do you think? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: It’s entirely plausible. I think that this is an environment where
    none of us have seen. I think it’s an environment where history
    doesn’t teach us too much. And you really don’t want to jump the gun
    and say, the current environment reminds you of early ’70s with Nixon and his then Fed
    chair. I’m not entirely sure that I’m in that camp. I think- and this is, again, this is new for
    everybody. I do believe that the Fed don’t have a choice
    in cutting rates. I think that the market was ahead of itself
    last September, got caught offside, the dark plots of the Fed just came down by 50 basis
    points for the end of 2020. These are facts, these are- we know. TONY GREER: Known knowns. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: I think when you’re dealing
    with the White House, you have to take the information, try to distill what your screens
    are reacting to. And once you are able to distill that, which
    is very difficult, and none of us know the answers because this is a different White
    House. It’s a different Fed chair. This is not Janet Yellen. It’s not Alan Greenspan. It’s not Ben Bernanke. You were able to understand the environment
    that they were working in. This environment is different. The White House has made this environment
    a little bit different. Powell is a different man entirely. I did have a bit of an issue with how easy
    it looks to him in late 2018. I was like, it’s never that easy. If it was that easy, this would have been
    done already. TONY GREER: He was a hot beaming with confidence. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Seemed it. TONY GREER: And they’re coming, we’re going
    to raise rates, we’re going to do what the country deserves kind of thing. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: We’re on autopilot. I don’t know about you, but autopilot- not
    the best of strategies when you’re the Fed chair. We’ve basically got a Fed that is going to
    cut rates. If they don’t, there will be a dislocation
    shock. And that is again on our doorstep. I think the market’s pricing at 160 in end
    of 2020. And at the moment, the Fed is significantly
    above that. To tank. So, you’ve got a real issue. 10 Year papers trading at what, two or three
    today? TONY GREER: Give or take. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Right. The curve’s at 25 basis points, give or take. And there’s no doubt in my mind that that
    curve has to steepen. There’s no doubt in my mind. And the trouble with a bull steepening curve
    is you can count the days ’til you have a dislocating equity market. TONY GREER: Really? You think so? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Yeah. TONY GREER: Or do you think we’re going to
    have strong data that comes out? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: No, I think we’re going to
    have- Okay, this is that’s really interesting, strong data, as opposed to what? Weak data? TONY GREER: Yeah, I’m just thinking strong
    data potentially dislocating the bond market lower. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Right. So, manufacturing data right now is appalling. It’s terrible. Consumer data is very good. The unemployment data is very good. Consumer confidence is very good. The homebuilders index seems to be fine. New Home Sales seem to be fine. And as do with the consumer, she was not massively
    levered. The balance sheets look pretty fine. That’s terrific. And then you look at the manufacturing data,
    and you go, this is tricky. This looks really bad. It looks a bit like 2050 when we had the earnings
    recession driven by energy of which you know only too well. So, then you end up with, so what data am
    I looking at? Am I looking at the manufacturing data? Or am I looking at the consumer data? Because the consumer data is okay, but the
    manufacturing data stinks. TONY GREER: How do we work out of it? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: How do we work out of it? I don’t know, I really don’t know. You don’t ever want bad things to happen. Nobody wakes up in the morning and go, you
    know what? I really hope today bad things are going to
    happen. But at this point, we’re going to have to
    manage our way through softer manufacturing data and okay consumer data. And what you don’t want to see is more of
    the White House, more of China, more of the tariff, more of the trade talks, more of that
    uptick in rhetoric affecting the consumer data, because it’s already affected the manufacturing
    data. Now, it might not only be that there might
    be several other estimates. TONY GREER: Nobody. Those are fair observations. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: This is where it triggers. So, does a weaker manufacturing data trigger
    some weaker consumer data? Or does the consumer data, being very good,
    help to mitigate and pull up some of the manufacturing data? And I don’t have an answer to that. And I’m trying to find those answers every
    day, I’m trying to find has the market sniffed out that the consumer data is going to help
    the manufacturing data? At the moment, all of those cyclical cross
    currencies are not saying that’s the case. TONY GREER: Right, that’s true. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: The Chinese data, the base
    metals are not saying that’s the case. Crypto, for interests of knowledge is not
    saying that is the case. You want copper to trade well. You want China to trade well, but China goes
    up because they stimulate. China goes up because they’re issuing credit. And you go, okay, I understand that you need
    to do that. But that’s really not a fully-fledged bull
    market. Then you go back to, okay, what did 2009 teach
    me? It taught me it wasn’t a fully-fledged bull
    market. What did 2007 teach me? Well, it taught you that we were all offside
    all the way up into basically October of 2007. Because we were like, there is trouble. But the market kept going up. Now, what happened in 2008 is you could look
    at 2007 and say, I told you so. Well, great. Good for you. How do you trade it? You have to be really careful. If you want to trade that on the long side,
    you know that your trades are shallow. If you want to trade it on the short side,
    now, it’s going to cost you money. Because every now and again, you’re going
    to get a short squeeze. And that is going to hurt. And I do find that right now in 2019. Just fast forward into 2019. That’s where we’re at. Those short squeezes can be brutal. And the leadership is less than stellar. TONY GREER: Panic buying into highs on steep
    high magnitude game days, likeNICK SOFOCLEOUS: Right, and the one great sector right now
    is software. There’s data galore saying people are buying
    software for productivity gains. Terrific. But at some point, you start pricing that
    as well today, little bit weaker on software. A lot of people asking questions, no normal
    answers. What did the market do? Market really didn’t do too much. It was a few ups, a few downs. Oil was okay. Gold was at 1420. I know what caught my eye. A little bit bad on software, a little bit
    better in gold and precious metals. TONY GREER: Right. Well, let’s speak to that right now. Gold’s clearly staging a potential breakout. Technically speaking, we haven’t been above
    1400 in about three or four years. It’s obviously a direct reaction, in my opinion,
    to the negative yield pool starting to expand again into the 12 and 13 trillion area. What are your thoughts on gold? Do you think gold has legs this time or? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: So, I was lucky. Like you, I played the precious metal trade
    from 2009 throughactually, into 2011 when I found that equities were going to be a little
    bit better for me. Thankfully, you don’t have to catch the bottom. You don’t have to trade the top. But there’s an awful lot of things that look
    similar in regards to why you would own precious metals, you’ve got interest rates that are
    going lower. You got manufacturing that’s down. Your only numbers that aren’t deteriorating
    are in the consumer. Well, gold doesn’t care about the consumer. Gold is, for want of a better word, a store
    of value. You might not like that value and you might
    not agree with what that value is, you might think that value is lower. That’s okay. But it’s still a store of value to many. For me, it’s a ticker symbol on the screen. And if it trades well, I can get my head around
    why it’s trading well, that’s fine. That’s fine. I don’t have to marry it. But I do have to own it. There’s always a bull market somewhere. You just need to be able to see it, and you
    need to be able to play it. TONY GREER: That is a great point. That’s a great point. And with 30 years, or 30 years plus of your
    history, I have a lot of respect for you saying coming into the situation right now and saying
    totally different, something we haven’t seen before. That’s to me a sign that your eyes are wide
    open, and that this is a very different paradigm. And then you’re not willing to just go back
    and compare it to something that happened 20 or 30 years ago, because to me, that was
    a scary comparisons as well, because the world is so much different. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: I would be very interested
    to have been around during something like the Cuban Missile Crisis. Where every day you woke up to a headline
    going, we’re three minutes away from pressing big red buttons. Right, good grief. That and all we can do is read about those
    occasions. But it does seem to me as though as much as
    we think this is a really bad situation, it’s 2019, it’s not the early ’60s. We’re not quite there. So, as much as people say, this is terrible. This is a disaster for the country. I think some of those comments need to be
    tampered slightly. TONY GREER: Yeah, yeah, that makes sense. What’s amazing is that they would have called
    Trump as a tremendous war hawk as he entered into office. And it seemed like he’s been at least, maybe
    not in the best of class, but he’s been sort of globally pretty careful. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Yeah. Within the last week, we’ve seen the drone
    go down. And there was no air strike for whatever reason. TONY GREER: Right, following a Japanese tanker
    blowing up. Right yesterday. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: So, without knowing all the
    facts, all we know is these headlines. So, for someone to just turn around and say,
    all he wants to do is go to war. I’m like, well, that doesn’t look it to me. Because he hasn’t done that yet. Now, do I think that his international diplomacy
    is top class? No, I do not. But that’s just an opinion. What matters to me is markets. How do we react? How did we react to that drone? How did we react to the tanker? But I thought the oil markets reacted perfectly
    to an increase in stress in the Middle East. TONY GREER: Yeah, that’s about it. It took them a little while, but the price
    rallied 10% or so. And that the oil market respected at the gold
    market I think is respecting that among other things. There is certainly a good reason to be sort
    of looking into buying commodities on the dip. We like precious metals. Oil seems to be trading okay off the lows
    here. Most importantly, I wanted you to sort of
    define- you were really great. And I just want to wrap this equity portion
    up, you are outstanding in identifying the bull market from 2011 to 2015 as this is going
    to be a sort of Fed-assisted slow growth period that the S&P is going to be happy with. Then from ’15 to ’18, or soNICK SOFOCLEOUS:
    Well, ’15 to ’16. TONY GREER: To ’16. We were raising rates, the economy was growing,
    we had global growth. So, that was the premise of the market, higher
    rate, stronger economy. The S&P is okay with that. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: So15, you had your energy
    issue, where we started to go down, but the larger picture was you’re going to get an
    opportunity, because the cycle isn’t over. And that was when you could buy S&Ps at 1835. If I told you right now, you could have bought
    S&P at 1835, what would you say? Thank you. You’re 2950 and you say, okay. 1835, you’re good to go. TONY GREER: So, where are we in the cycle
    now? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Oh, we’re really late, because
    we just changed. We just had the Fed- the Fed have just changed
    the cycle. Because now, we’re in a lower rate environment,
    we’re in a cutting rates environment. And the only time that the Fed have cut rates,
    and it’s worked out well, was late ’94 into ’95. Difficult to see this being 1995. TONY GREER: Right. Exactly. It’s just more like ’08, ’09 where they cut
    rates and the market wouldn’t take it. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Right, because you had deteriorating
    economic numbers and the productivity gains just- with the internet, that was amazing. You just don’t have that now. You have business investment, business investment
    is not accelerating now. Back in ’94, ’95, business investment was
    as a percentage of GDP, was going through the roof. And you can see that, anyone can see that
    on their charts, you just need to know how to calculate it and you’ll be able to see
    it. And it’s a beautiful chart to show you the
    cycles. And if you overlay that with a curve, you
    really are 50% on the way to figuring out what does the cycle look like? TONY GREER: Well, I want to keep moving. Because we covered a lot of ground in the
    markets, we covered a lot of market history. And we let a couple of your tricks out of
    the bag, which was fun to do. But I want to sort of take a worldly view
    back, because our viewers have been enjoying me asking guys the question, if you are a
    young person in the markets today, and you see all these super traders and Masters of
    the Universe on television and you wanted to become one, what would your first step
    be into the financial markets? What do you think is available, whereas you
    and I could try to get a job at a big investment bank working on a desk of 30 guys, or men
    and women. Today, what are the opportunities for somebody
    that wants to become a trader? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Yes. So, the environment has changed from when
    you and I decided that financial markets were where we wanted to be. Financial services have changed. There’s a couple of places that I would look
    at, first of all. One is deciding what my skill set was at this
    time. You’re 23, 24. What’s my skill set at 23, 24? You’ve probably got boundless energy. Do you like the markets? If your answer is yes, and you want to test
    yourself against them, terrific. And you need to find yourself a seat, there
    are companies that will allow you to do so- whether it’s using their capital, using your
    capital. Those aren’t the large banks anymore, because
    we know that doesn’t exist. But they do exist in a smaller environment,
    in a collegiate environment in different companies right now. TONY GREER: So, getting a job managing risk? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Managing your own risk. And you can be taught by people, and there
    are plenty of well-versed, very successful people that would gladly have you on their
    team if you are successful. If you’re a successful trader in front of
    your own screens, people will like to have you on their team. Trying to find those companies is quite tricky
    because it’s a new set of ventures for people. As the banks lost to people, these new trading
    rooms did start up. That’s one avenue. I think that’s a very high risk avenue. I think that you need a counselor. You need somebody to teach you. And you need that constant because a lot of
    that is about confidence. The second thing is always- it’s something
    on the wealth management, you can help people within the wealth management business, and
    being involved in markets. And be hugely successful while helping other
    people. That’s a good gift. That’s a terrific gift to have. So, it really does depend, I think, on how
    you perceive yourself at a given age within your cycle. Your personal cycle. TONY GREER: Yeah, that’s a good point. If you are beaming with confidence, and you
    want to give it a try, and you’re single, you could probably get a job trying your own
    day trading operation somewhere. It’s not out of the question. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: It’s not out of the question. I wouldn’t advocate that. That’s a high risk strategy where you don’t
    even understand what your own risks are and how many risks you want to take and when. But there are plenty of operations when you’re
    looking to get into that type of market. Trying to be within financial markets, trying
    to get into a hedge fund. Terrific. Brilliant. There are hugely successful hedge funds. Super smart people. They are a joy to work with. They are a joy to work with. Not everybody’s on TV. Not everybody shouts from the rooftops. Sometimes, really, the best people, they’re
    around, you need to listen to them. Do your homework. Some of these guys will take the best of the
    brightest. TONY GREER: Yeah, that’s true. I like the wealth advisor idea too, because
    you can sort of swap your interpersonal skills and be wildly helpful to a wealth advisor
    operation and use that as your platform to learn about the markets rather than having
    them at your fingertips. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Absolutely right. TONY GREER: Yeah, that’s a really good point. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Absolutely. There’s a reason why family offices have grown. There’s a reason why the very large, historically
    large Wall Street firms want wealth management operations. There is growth in wealth management. And it’s okay to understand this. Well, there’s growth in wealth management. That’s okay. TONY GREER: So, even as the landscape changes
    quite a bit over the decades that there’s still entry level opportunities for people
    that want to be in this business? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Absolutely right. TONY GREER: Yeah, that’s a fair point. That’s a fair point. All right. Well, I want to get way off of the business
    cycle and the business topic for a minute and ask you, Beatles or Stones? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Beatles. TONY GREER: That was an easy one, huh? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Yeah. TONY GREER: You didn’t think twice about it? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Not twice. TONY GREER: What was your earliest turn on
    from the Beatles? When did they hook you? NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Oh, family. Family had their records. TONY GREER: Oh, yeah. It was all there before you. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Oh, my goodness. Yeah. Absolutely. And also, they had melody. So, my record collection is nowhere near as
    vast as yours. It’s not really my thing. But as I got older, the Stones- you started
    listening to some of the Stones and going, oh, these guys were good. These guys were good. So, nobody’s bad here. It’s just a preference. TONY GREER: That’s for sure. Like the Beatles or Stones call you- the lesser
    of two greatness. You know what I mean. So, you can [inaudible]- NICK SOFOCLEOUS:
    Light blue, dark blue? Which one’s your preference? TONY GREER: You look great in both. That’s perfect, man. Well, we covered a lot of ground. I really appreciated you sharing a lot of
    your trade secrets, your history. All of this is so helpful, even for me to
    go over in an interview, and hopefully for the people that are watching to get your sea
    legs in the market and learn how to do that and learn how to survive. So, I can’t thank you enough for taking the
    time today, Nick. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Absolute pleasure. TONY GREER: Great job, my man. NICK SOFOCLEOUS: Let’s see. TONY GREER: Brilliant.

    Articles

    Trading Using Probabilities with Alex Coffey I Twitch #7

    October 13, 2019


    [MUSIC PLAYING] Hello, and welcome once again
    to TD Ameritrade on Twitch. I am your co-host, Anthony
    Panzeca, always joined by– Bill Ruby. How’s it going, guys? Good. How you doing, Bill? I’m doing well? I’m doing well. Yeah. Pretty good. We’ve had a couple
    wild days, but– Yeah. Seems like I say
    that every week. It’s we’ve had wild
    days for a while now. There’s been a ton of
    volatility in the market. I know. Yesterday, big swings in
    the underlying indexes. Just kind of like– But how have you
    been feeling, Bill? I want to know
    about your feelings and how you’re
    feeling in general. Rested. I’ve felt rested. OK, that’s good, because a lot
    of people are getting sick now. Yeah, I was. I had a little something
    after TwitchCon. Like when the kids
    go back to school, the germs just do
    their thing, and then they give it to everybody,
    and then we all get sick, and we’re not even in school. I know, I know. I think I had a little
    something after TwitchCon, and– Did you? Yeah, no, a couple emergencies
    and I’m good to go. Maybe it’s all your fault, then. You’re bringing stuff
    back from San Diego, spreading it out through
    the [INAUDIBLE] all over River North. I don’t think it was really
    a patient zero scenario. You don’t think so? Yeah, I think was
    pretty standard. My niece is actually in
    the hospital right now. She’s got pneumonia. Oh, that’s terrible. Yeah, so I might
    go visit her today. They’re thinking they’re
    going to let her go today. She should be fine, but I might
    have to go visit her today. So hopefully, she’ll be OK. Hopefully, she’s watching. You’d better be
    watching, Giovanna. So yeah, we’ve got
    another day today. We’ve had some movement. We’re up 26. And we have a few new followers. That’s right, we’ve
    got BronsonVonLux, Kingbill900, 4CBlue,
    AlexMCoffey– hmm. Hmm. AlexMCoffey– that
    sounds very familiar. It sure does. We might have to get
    some clarity on who that is a little later in the show. Iamtherealcarrot, rollonyou
    ebaker, tDan, that’s Evelyn. Obie says Hi, how’s it going? We’ve got jackknife, Gilgamesh,
    Marinyr, lyrikin, epikelen, murletoft? Merloft. Oh, I thought you
    were saying mazel tov. No, no, not quite. Isn’t what what they say
    at the Jewish wedding when they get married? It is, it is. It’s a sign of
    congratulations, I believe. Evelyn says, Hi, Obie. Najgaming, withaltshift,
    AdricWhetstone, MrFMGeez, ChuckJones, luckstwitch,
    deadDrazen, gamesandsynth, slytied25, egolith,
    ohsnowdog, spiritspade, returnxr, CarlosKelly RoJohn,
    and JakeonQuest are on a quest. Obie also says hi there. Thanks for coming in. Yeah. Thanks for the follow. Thanks for the follows. rollingonchrome says he’s
    gunning for your job, Bill. That’s a tough task. Just that comment alone, I
    don’t know if you could be mic. Well, I don’t know. I don’t know. You know, I’m open
    to challengers. You know, heavy is the
    head that wears the crown. We’ll see how it goes. I love your sayings. They’re just so great. I feel like that was facetious. Thanks for tuning in, guys. Thanks for tuning in, guys. Make sure you tune in every
    Wednesday, 1:00 to 2:00 PM. We are live on Twitch. We’re discussing markets. We’re putting on all kinds of
    trade strategies in our paper money account. So you can look
    below and actually create– there should be a link
    there to create a paper money account, as always. So if you want to play
    along, throw your questions in the chat. We’ll be more than
    happy to address some of those questions. So look at that, tisgreen
    and fiatisforfailures. [LAUGHS] Two more
    followers there. Yeah, thanks for the follow. Yeah, so one of the things
    that we like to do– I mean, obviously, Bill
    and I traded on the floor, and we want to bring you that
    environment that we lived in. And now, that
    environment, really, it exists a lot on the trade desk. And our first guest today– or only guest today– he actually worked on
    the trade desk with us. So it’s just a really
    cool environment. I’m so happy to work here
    and to be here every day. The people that we work
    with are just so awesome. Yeah, we’ve got a good
    bunch here, for sure. Smart bunch, a lot of fun. Yeah. Yeah. And you know, a lot of what
    happens on the trade desk, we talk about everyday
    stuff, and then trading is intermittently
    sprinkled out there. And so we kind of
    want to give you that. So if you ever have
    questions or anything like that about what
    goes on, I mean, it’s such a fun place
    to work, and we hope we bring that to you guys– so OK. Yeah. We can bring on– do you want to do our first? Do you want to do–
    do our MES trade here. Yeah, let’s pop
    something in there. OK. Well, we got the ES off already. All right, so we’ll do /mes. And as you all know, Bill and
    I do a breakfast sandwich bet every week. I believe- are you up one now? I am up one right now. We’ve been trading
    back and forth. He is. At some point, we’re
    going to have to cut it, and it’s like there
    has to be a deadline, and then there has
    to be a payout. Mm-hmm. Right? So what do you want to
    do, like end of the year? Yeah, let’s do month-to-month. How about that? Month-to-month? OK, well, we’ve kind
    of missed that cut-off. We could go to the
    end of October. Yeah. Yeah. I’m pretty sure we’ll still
    have our jobs by then. Well, I think so. I hope so. Is that optimistic? Is that just hopeful? Well, I think it’s
    not optimistic. Yeah. It’s hopefully practical. If it’s optimistic, we might
    have something to worry about. Well, I know I’m OK,
    but rollingonchrome is coming for your job, so– Yeah, rollingonchrome
    is coming in hot here. Yeah, he is. So and he says– I don’t even know
    what that says. All right, so let’s
    put on our first trade, and we’re going to
    throw it to the chat. And so you guys
    can see right here on our screen what the
    S&P 500 is doing today. So we’re just going to
    bring up the intraday. Here’s what’s going on. We’re up 26.75, almost 1%. We’re definitely
    higher than the open. I mean, if you guys want
    to go long in the chat, what, throw a bull in there? Do we have bullish emotes yet? No bull emotes. Oh, yeah, our producer’s
    looking at me like, shut up, don’t bring up– But no bull– but
    they’re coming. They’re coming soon. Throw “bull” in the
    chat if you want to see us go long and
    “bear” in the chat if you want to see
    us put on a short. What are you thinking, Bill? Well, it is kind of a little
    bit of an up day, coming off the back. I mean, I think– Let’s look at this guy. Yeah, so this is
    the set of studies that we were using last week to
    try and take control of this. Now, if you see this breakout
    here, if you– here, let me– Yeah, you control that, buddy. Just this right here. I still see, when I learned
    how to do handwriting in first grade,
    when I look at this. I just have no idea, so
    you’ll have to explain it. You know, the journey of a
    million– is it 1,000 miles, begins with a single step? If you say so. You’re the one with
    all the sayings. I [INAUDIBLE]. Yeah, I’m whipping out a bunch
    of them today, for some reason. So if we look at this one
    here, we’ve got this breakout and come back. So theoretically,
    based on the strategy that we were looking
    at last week, we would have wanted
    to sell up there. Yeah. So we’d be coming into it– it seems like we’re
    kind of range-bound. You know– Are we looking at resistance
    with that dotted green line there? Yeah? Yeah, I think so. OK, OK. I think so. And on that front, I think I’d– going off this, too, I think
    I would have to go short. You’re going to sell it. OK. Yeah. Well, you know what? That’s fine, because I don’t
    understand what any of that says. So I’m going to go– I’m going to say
    long, all right? OK. OK, that sounds good. So it’s– So chat, what do
    you– oh. well, we have a few votes in
    the chat already. Oh, we’ve got all
    bears, pretty much. Yet, [INAUDIBLE] bears. Ah, bears. Yeah, they’re going
    with you, buddy. Well, I hope so. And you know, rollingonchrome
    is probably pretty unhappy to hear that. But I think we should–
    let’s pop this baby in. He says he’s gunna
    for you, Bill. OK, well, that’s great. Because “gunning” is
    apparently too long of a word to put out in there. Well, no, that’s– to
    each their own, but– And somebody just
    went short your job. [LAUGHS] Well– [LAUGHS] Why are they bagging
    on you bad today? I don’t understand. I don’t know. It’s all the little
    tidbits of wisdom, I guess. Bill, can I just say that you’re
    the best co-host I’ve ever had? Oh, you’re the only
    co-host I’ve ever had. There you go. Well, I guess you’re, in that
    scenario, the worst, as well. OK. So, you know– Well, OK, so let’s go over
    to the active trade layer, and let’s pop this in. OK, so we’ll get
    that out of there. Do you want to take it,
    or do you want me to? You can go ahead. Come on, prove your worth, Bill. Ah, I see. So now you’re goading me. Is that what we’re doing? Prove your worth. Show them how good you are at
    this, and then they’ll be– now you can’t screw it up. Well, we’re going to do a
    five-aught again, correct? Five is good. I like five. And then we’re going
    to do a $5 target. So we’re going short. OK Bill, where’s my semi at? We’re going to do a short here. All right, I’m going
    to pop this baby in. And then, so we’re going to
    have a target five points below and a stop five points above. Yep, so in. We got filled on that. Let’s check our fill
    price real quick. $2919.50. I kind of don’t
    appreciate that comment. I remind you of your dad? Can’t hate on him? I mean, I guess that’s
    a backhanded compliment if I ever heard one. No, I think it’s great. Well– You have a nurturing
    soul, that means. I don’t know what
    I’m going to do. The only thing left to do
    is bring on our next guest. Yes. OK? He is a senior specialist of
    client and market structure insights at TD Ameritrade. He is 27 years old,
    host of Fast Market, and contributor on
    the TDA Network. Let’s give it up
    for Alex Coffey. Welcome to the show, Alex. Thanks for having me. Excited to be here. Great to see you, buddy. Great to see you. Anthony, your intros are
    getting very boisterous. I feel like I should
    be clapping afterwards. Boisterous– hang on. You’re a hype man. Can I look up– I have to look that up
    in the dictionary first. [LAUGHS] OK, so markets is your
    strong suit, not vocabulary. So that’s good or bad? It’s good, I think. OK, well, I reminded
    of somebody’s dad? I don’t know. They’re bagging on all
    of us here in the chat. Tell us a little about
    your background, Alex. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, let’s
    see, where to start. I mean, I grew up in Omaha. So corporate headquarters–
    TD Ameritrade is in Omaha. Yeah. And so when you
    think about where I was maybe 5, 10 years
    ago before starting here at TD Ameritrade, I know
    Larry Beebe was on here and I caught his. He said he was kind of a lost
    soul when he was in college. I wouldn’t say I
    was a lost soul, but I didn’t have
    it all figured out. Yeah. There was always–
    the late Steve Jobs had a quote at the
    Stanford commencement that always resonated
    with me, the idea behind, you can always connect the
    dots looking backwards, but you can’t connect
    them looking forwards. Yeah, I like that. And I think that really,
    really does tie into my career thus far. Yeah. When I go back to being in
    school, I studied finance, I studied accounting
    as my majors. I had minors in
    economics and in math. Yeah. I went to the
    University of Nebraska. So you have a double
    minor and a double major. Double minor, double major. Good for you, man. But I didn’t really have an
    idea of what I wanted to do. I wanted to go to law
    school, at least I thought. And then, as I got older,
    I started thinking about, is that just stalling? And do I even really want
    to go to more school? Do I want to be an attorney? Do I want to go to that? Right, yeah. Ultimately, I did not do that. Yeah. And so I graduate May 2014. I did some traveling
    throughout the rest of 2014. But towards the end of the
    year, I was thinking to myself, it’s probably time to start
    getting started with my career. I thought to myself, I
    don’t love accounting, but I like the pay. Oh, really? I love the finance stuff. I think it’s a very specific
    breed that loves accounting. I know, there is,
    and they do love it. There’s nothing against it. And I did not love it, yeah. There’s nothing against it, it
    just didn’t resonate with me. I wasn’t excited. I didn’t love the classes. The stock market was
    always intriguing to me. Yeah. And I thought to myself,
    OK, well, TD Ameritrade’s here in Omaha. They’re a big company with
    the stock market and finance. Right. And so I applied for a financial
    services representative job. Yeah. We call it investor
    services now. So basically, worked on the
    front lines of client service support. Did that for a year. Yeah. But throughout the
    training process, when we go through the
    licensing stage, in that role, you spend some time
    in a classroom, and you get to know
    some of the systems while you’re studying as well. And we spent a lot of
    time on Thinkorswim, and I basically fell in love
    from day one with options, and trading, and really
    the platform in general. And from there, you
    start thinking, like, how did I not learn about
    any of this stuff in school? Right. And I can’t speak to where
    modern-day academics are, where those classes are. I’m sure that there’s been
    strides towards learning more about this side of
    the business, more of the active side of the
    business and the derivatives trading. But I spent a lot of time using
    the limited resources that were available in 2015 for
    free education around options and trading. So you just did your own,
    kind of like us, yeah. And I scoured this stuff. And I spent a lot of time
    with different companies that we were affiliated
    with, or even some of our internal education
    products that we had back then. Of course, you
    fast-forward to now, TD Ameritrade offers
    an incredible amount of content and
    educational resources, which I’m sure we’ll talk about
    a lot throughout this show. But you know, then, after
    I start the real job and I become more and
    more adept with trading, the logical step was then
    to join our trade desk, which we have all
    across our locations. At that point, I
    was in Omaha still. Yeah. Ultimately, a year after that,
    most of our active trading, Thinkorswim stuff, is
    actually based out of here, in our Chicago offices. Yeah. And so I ultimately moved here
    to Chicago at the end of 2016 and continued working
    on the trade desk before ultimately, now, I
    work for our active trader group underneath JJ
    Kinahan, which I’m not sure if your viewers are
    familiar with who that is, but he’s our chief
    market strategist here at TD Ameritrade. Yeah. And then, as you mentioned, the
    media affiliate, TD Ameritrade Network, I also host
    now, or co-host, the Fast Market program from
    10:00 to 11:00 AM Central each day. So it’s crazy to think how
    far I’ve come, I guess, in my career. And in such a short
    period of time. Right, but– Yeah. It’s exciting, and– Well, they’re going long coffee
    futures in the chat right now. Whoa, coffee futures? But they’re
    definitely impressed. They like it. Yeah and I– But I guess the real
    thing I want to say is how grateful I am to
    have an opportunity to– I love the markets, and
    to be around and have half of my day talking
    about the markets, and the other half
    looking, and researching, and doing stuff for JJ– I’m really fortunate
    to be in that spot. Yeah. Well, and yeah, I think,
    honestly, TD Ameritrade has been pretty good to
    work for in a lot of ways. Yeah. And we wanted to
    touch on the fact that you were on
    the trade desk, too. So we’ve all been on
    the trade desk here, and I think it’s a great rundown
    of just a learning experience. When he first
    started, I was like– well, not when he first started. When he actually started,
    he’d sit right by me for– I think there was another guy
    I was really good friends with. We call him Sugar Bear
    in the desk, right? And he used to sit
    five feet from me. And they move him, and
    they put you there. And I didn’t know who
    were, so I was like, who is this young hunk coming in? Hey! Hey! He’s younger than me. He’s on the PCS team, so he
    probably makes more than me. I’m like, who is this guy? Right? You can attest to that, Uncle
    Moneybags over there, right? Oh, right, yeah. Uncle Moneybags,
    that’s a new one. But the more I got
    to know you, I mean, it’s amazing how much you
    know about the markets in, like you said, this
    short period of time. And I was 27. I knew a fair amount, but
    to be honest with you, I worked on the floor,
    and I didn’t really understand the full concept
    behind vertical strategies, and Iron condors, and
    all of that stuff. We never really traded
    those on the floors. Nobody really sent orders
    in for iron condors when I was on the floor. Yeah, and obviously, there’s
    a ton of self-study that was involved in some of that. And obviously, well, we’ll
    get into it, like I said. The resources that are available
    now if you are just getting started, there’s so many
    out there now that– it’s such a better place,
    the industry, for a beginner now than it was even five
    years ago when I was starting. Yeah. But the trade desk,
    another huge part of that, is the fact that we were
    learning, as representatives, alongside the client. So the day I started
    on the trade desk, I was not as, maybe, up to
    speed with all of this stuff that I am now. Right. And so it was always a
    constant learning process, and you’re learning
    alongside the clients, and working things together. So it really was an awesome
    experience and definitely something that I’m very
    grateful to have been a part of. Yeah, well, one
    thing that we always like to do on the trade
    desk and we talked about is we like to mess around
    people a little bit. And so I did I did a
    little digging on you, and I came up with
    this fantastic– I don’t know if you could
    see that, or zoom in on it, but it’s a very– it’s an
    article from ThinkMoney Magazine that you did. And it’s actually
    a great article. It talks a lot about, obviously,
    what your background there, and you’re quoting
    Marcus Aurelius. It says, I don’t like to get
    hung up on little things. So they have you dressed
    up as a gladiator. I would love some
    context behind– Tons of gravitas. –behind [INAUDIBLE]. I’m a pretty avid
    reader, and at the time, I was pretty deep into reading
    some of the Stoic stuff. And they caught me at a time
    when I was really into that, and I quoted that, and I think
    it does have a lot of, I guess, principles that you can apply
    to trading that are pretty– Yeah. I guess the idea of
    taking emotions out of it, which I’m sure we’ll elaborate
    a little bit more on it throughout this. But yeah, it is a
    pretty funny thing how they take an interview,
    and they chop it up, and that’s what ends up with. But– Well, not only that, look
    at that picture in there. That is epic. Look at that. I don’t know. That looks like it
    should be framed over a fireplace somewhere. I told you I wouldn’t
    make you look bad, Alex. That makes you look good, man. That is just– if they could
    put me in a gladiator outfit, boy, that would be scary. Yeah, I just wish it
    wasn’t just a drawing. If I was actually a gladiator,
    it’d be pretty cool. Oh, come on, you have that
    up all over your apartment, I’m sure. It’s probably everywhere. I can’t confirm or deny that. [LAUGHING] A wise move. You know what? They did one on Phil Caravo,
    and we had him in there, and I was in his
    apartment in the bathroom, and then you just see the
    face staring at you, the one that they have on ThinkMoney. And it looks surprisingly
    a lot like Paul Rudd. And so I did give him the
    business for that, but– That’s funny. Well, let’s take a look
    at the markets real quick. I’m going to pop this baby open. Check on the markets. Right now, we got the
    Dow up 200 to 26,364. We’ve got the NASDAQ
    composite up 87 to 7,911, and we’ve got the
    SPX up 28 to 2,291. So we’re holding the
    up day pretty well. Doesn’t seem to be as much
    of a swinging day as we had yesterday, but we also had some
    announcements, so that could– you know– [INAUDIBLE] Well, let’s take a look at
    this General Mills trade. Maybe you can help
    us out with that. We’ve had it on for a while. One of the stock guys actually
    suggested that symbol to us. We’ve been floating
    around on this one. Let’s go back. Let’s go back to
    our monitor page. So here’s what we have
    on in General Mills. Mr. Ruby, I know
    you’re on Twitch here, but please go buy
    William or Bill II. I mean King Bill has been
    tenacious with that message. I don’t know. I think– They are all over you. –we can share the Bill
    name, as far as I know. They’re all over you. You’re handling it quite
    well, sir, I will say. Yeah. Well, you know, there’s going
    to be more than one Bills. And King Bill, like
    I said earlier, heavy is the head that
    wears the crown. There you go. So we’ll see how it goes. But so this thing was– we were
    in kind of a sweet spot last week, and we’re still kind of– Kind of right there. Yeah, we’re still kind
    of lingering in there. But looks like we’re
    down in it, though. What’s going on there? Is it there we’re seeing
    some bad marks or something? I don’t know. I mean, the stock’s
    up $0.41, so we should be down on
    it a little bit today because it is
    kind of a bearish trade. So what we did was we sold a
    call spread on General Mills because we felt maybe it had– you know, it had a great run. And we sold a call spread,
    and we bought a put spread. And obviously, the call spread
    financed the put spread. Yeah, we could use a
    little bit of a break here, trying to get it. We’ve got nine days. I don’t believe we
    laid out much for this. Let’s take a look. No, I think we did
    it for a credit. Right, so– I think we were
    surprised to get it, too. Even if it doesn’t pan out,
    we’re still looking good. We just want to avoid the rally. We’re approaching
    the top end of that. Yeah. Do you think there’s any
    maintenance here, Alex, that you’d be seeing? I mean, you look at
    this trade, you’ve got nine days to duration. Obviously, you said you
    put it on last week, so it was a fairly short
    timeframe to begin with. But you have 10 of them on. I think your P&L open was $35
    or somewhere around that line. It means you’re out like
    $0.03 on this trade right now for each contract. You’re basically unchanged
    on this particular trade at this point. M-hmm. Unless your fundamental
    directional bias or, I guess, outlook on the
    stock has changed, I don’t see that there’s much
    that can be done at this point. Obviously, if
    something has changed, you have an opportunity to
    get off or take this trade off for a $0.03 loss at
    this point, if you’re able to get filled
    at that point. Yeah, well, I think right now,
    I mean, time’s in our favorite. We’re short theta, right? So as we get closer and
    closer to expiration, that’s going to actually–
    time is on our side. Right, collecting some. So actually, we’ll be
    up 60 bucks as long as it stays below 55. Yeah, and you did it for
    an overall net credit. Yeah. So by doing that, you
    don’t need a move. Right. A move down is going to
    further benefit this trade, but because you were able
    to finance that long put vertical by selling that
    short call vertical, time is on your side. Yeah. We talked about
    this earlier, too. One of the things that intrigued
    you about options trading is that you can have a
    no-move strategy where, if the stock
    doesn’t do anything, then you still can just sit
    back and collect that premium. Right [INAUDIBLE]
    beta to work for you. The idea of selling premium
    resonated with me strongly, and especially just options
    in general, the idea of– I know what we’re
    going to talk about is the probabilities behind it. Yeah. As being someone who always
    felt they were decent at math, I liked the idea of
    putting math to this because, if you’re
    thinking about just buying stock ABC, or GIS in this case,
    or wanting to get short it, you needed a move to happen. And in my mind, it’s like, OK
    this is a 50-50 speculation. Right. And with a 50-50 speculation,
    that, to me, it was like, I have to do all this
    research, and all this. And it’s like, what makes me
    any better than anybody else at this? Right. And the idea of putting
    the odds in my favor by selling a put, even, or
    something like that really resonated strongly with me. But of course, there’s
    trade-offs to that. I’m sure you guys
    have spent time talking about limited upside,
    things of that nature that make that different. But that’s what
    resonated with me. Right, and
    potentially more risk. Especially if you’re not
    doing it as part of a spread, you’re definitely
    taking on more risk. Touching on what
    you said, I think the way I like to think about
    it is, if you’re selling premium and you’re putting on a short
    put spread or a short call spread, you don’t
    necessarily have to be right; you just have to be not wrong. Just can’t be wrong, yeah. I was going to say that, yeah. Yeah, it can stay where it
    is; it can go the other way; it just can’t go towards you. And I think there’s something
    to be said about that, because I mean, you’re going to
    be wrong, probably, most of the time when
    it comes to any trade, but it’s how you manage it. And something like that,
    you can be wrong and maybe still make some money. That’s something that my co-host
    Kevin Hanks really stresses on our show quite a
    bit, is the idea of, if you sell a put vertical,
    you have three scenarios where you could potentially
    make money on that put vertical. It can go against you
    slightly, as long as it’s before your short strike. It can be unchanged,
    or it can go up. And if you’re just
    buying stock outright, you can’t say the same. Right. That’s pretty cut and dry. It’s very black and white–
    either you made money or you didn’t, you were
    wrong or you weren’t. Yeah, for sure. Well, speaking of
    probabilities, maybe we should– I mean, Thinkorswim has
    a great tool on there for taking a look at
    probabilities in the options chain. It does. Do you want to look at that one? Yeah. Yeah, let’s pop over there. Do you to pop over, too? Because one of the
    symbols that we’re going to look at today when
    we can look at General Mills. Do you want to look
    at it in Delta? No, let’s take a look at DAL. OK, Delta Airlines, that’s–
    they have earnings coming out, I believe– Tomorrow morning. Tomorrow morning,
    he’s right on it. I was going to show him
    in the Market Watch tab where you find that. So here, you go in here, you
    go into Market Watch calendar. I always keep it on Month. You click on it,
    and there it is– Before The Market. Mm-hmm. OK? So here’s the options
    chain, and we’re going to go through a
    probability analysis. Where do you guys want to start? Well, let’s pop open one
    of these expirations. OK. And right now, we don’t
    have probability on there. Let’s do this one– so
    probability out of the money. Now, so this column
    here is going to tell you the
    probability that it’s going to end up out of the money. Now Alex, there’s
    another tool that you said that you use sometimes. What was that one? Yeah, I’ll walk you through it. If you want to set this up so
    that it’s a delta, as you have there already,
    probability you actually do– probability
    of in the money, just because it’s
    going to illustrate this a little bit better, and
    then probability of touching. OK. And I just want to show the
    relationship between these and then explain what they are. You can leave– Do we need OTM in there? You don’t necessarily
    need it, no. Yeah, [INAUDIBLE]. So you can take that
    and implied volatility off, probably, unless you
    want to leave it in there. No, that’s fine. Well, this is– Well, actually, I may want
    to make a comparison there. Let’s take a look. OK, so really what
    you’re looking at this is the second to last column
    there is a probability of it expiring in the money. So when you’re looking at
    that, that’s basically saying, OK, you can almost correspond
    this with your probability of, if you’re selling a put
    spread, or a put vertical, or even just a put,
    that that’s going to be your probability
    of success, in a way, at expiration. Because that’s saying,
    this is the probability in one standard deviation,
    all else equal, based off current option prices– OK. –this will expire out of–
    or, this will basically expire in the money. Because shortSPX
    had that question. He said, how is the
    probability calculated? And I think you just
    touched on that, right? Yeah, it’s going to factor
    in current option prices, and there’s, obviously, an
    option model that the platform is running it through. I don’t have that math
    on that at this point. Yeah, that math is pretty–
    there’s Black-Scholes, there’s [INAUDIBLE],, but I
    think the platform uses– there’s binomial,
    there’s Whaley, there’s a bunch of
    different models, and they’re pretty extensive. But basically, it’s based
    on the implied volatility of the stock, the individual
    option, the strike that you’re at, the time to expiration,
    all those kinds of things. Right, and so when you look
    at this, you’re going to see– let’s say the 52 and
    1/2 on this November 15 expiration for the put side. So you see the current
    bid-ask is 169-172, and you see that’s roughly
    a 40 delta at 39 negative, 39 delta, there. Right. So I then skip the column
    with implied volatility and I look probability
    of in the money, and you’re seeing that’s 43%. So it’s not perfectly
    the same, but it kind of corresponds to that. And so I always use
    it as a loose thing, is your delta is
    going to roughly be your probability of
    that expiring in the money. For sure. But then the last
    column is the one that you were alluding
    to here, Bill, that I want to talk
    about that I don’t think gets enough love
    on the platform. It’s probability of touching. I’ve never looked
    at this before. So this is, you see– [INAUDIBLE] –it’s roughly twice the
    delta and roughly twice the probability of
    expiring in the money. So what is it? This is your probability that,
    at any time over the next 37 days, 52 and 1/2 is a strike
    that’s breached or touched by the stock price. Yeah. So that illustrates
    that, although you have, maybe, a 40% chance of
    losing on the trade or 43% chance of that expiring
    in the money at expiration over the next 37 days,
    you have an 82.9% chance of maybe
    taking some heat, is how I would describe that. So I think that’s
    one of the things that we don’t always
    realize, is although I have a really high
    probability of success, it doesn’t mean that it’s just
    going to be a smooth ride all the way there. Sure, absolutely. And that’s– That’s so important. Yeah, you’ve got to you’ve got
    to realize that sometimes, it’s going to be– it’s wrong
    right after you put it on, but it still could
    be right eventually, and sometimes, you’ve
    got to take that heat. And that’s the judgment call. That’s where– it’s where your mettle
    is going to get tested. Yeah, absolutely. And that’s where
    trading becomes an art, is to know when, OK, this
    is the wrong decision, and I’ve got to get out
    now, and/or to hang in there and be like, all right,
    well, these are bad days; let’s ride them out
    and see what happens. Yeah, for sure. And that comes into
    effect so much when you’re in the middle of a trade. It could go against you
    almost immediately or sometime in the interim, and then
    you get out of it, right? And then you’ve
    figured, oh my gosh, I just bought the high in
    this, and now it’s back. If I would have
    just done nothing, if I would have laid in
    bed for the next week, this trade would’ve been fine. But you took it off because
    you didn’t really [INAUDIBLE].. I think you’re
    describing right now is how difficult it is at times. And this is where it
    goes to that article that you’ve so shamelessly
    shown me of as Marcus Aurelius, is the idea of taking
    emotions out of trading as much as you can and being
    a stoic individual when you’re dealing with this,
    it’s near impossible. But when you start
    dealing with real money and real decision-making
    and it’s all real-time and you have access to
    the marketplace the way that we do now, where you just
    click a couple times and all of a sudden, you
    can make a trade, that really makes those
    emotional decisions that much more of something
    you have to deal with. And that’s why I think it’s
    important to stress the idea of having a plan all along. And that’s not even just
    getting into the trade. It’s getting out of
    the trade as well. Whether that’s a loss point that
    you want to stop yourself out of, or an area where, this is
    where I’m comfortable taking a profit in this trade, too. Yeah, OK. Yeah, that sounds good. So I mean, with
    that in mind, maybe we should try and go
    through that process with a trade on this. Yeah. So you said there’s
    earnings tomorrow. How do you how do you
    think this could be played? So I think one of the major
    misconceptions with earnings is that you think, OK– of course, there’s
    some of this, too– is the company doing well, or
    is the company doing poorly? I need to pick up or down. But really, what you’re playing
    whenever you’re trading around earnings is the
    expectation of the move. So Thinkorswim does
    a beautiful job of painting the
    market maker move up at the top-middle
    of the platform there where you see that 197. Right. That’s the expectation of
    what this one-day move is going to be around this
    earnings announcement. So you’re looking
    for about a $2 move. You’re really
    playing, do I think this is going to move
    more or less than $2? Yeah. That’s the first decision that
    you have to really think about. Yeah, that’s true. And there’s some great comments
    coming from the chat right now. Yeah, I know. Bill number two from the
    chat wanted me to [INAUDIBLE] call Bill number two. Chat, we’re not ignoring you. Just put something intelligent
    so we can answer it. You guys are just joking around. We love that. OK, we know coffee needs
    milk, and Bill actually used to trade in the
    milk futures pit. I did. I’m a milk man. A milk man all the way. I used to trade milk
    futures, butter futures– Good stuff. –nonfat futures, nonfat
    skim milk, dry whey. I’m a milk man. Yeah, that’s right. We could throw something– OK, we could get them
    all out of the way. Butter, we can’t
    believe it’s not butter. We can’t believe
    it’s not you, Bill. I don’t know where
    that one’s going to go. Wow, uh– So yeah, put some
    stuff in there, guys. We love it. I mean, we’re sitting here– it’s definitely good stuff. But when you guys ask a
    serious question, I promise, we’ll give you a
    serious answer, OK? All right. All right, well, OK, so
    let’s take a look at– we’ve got earnings
    coming out tomorrow, so we’re probably– look, we’re
    getting an implied val bump up in the front. We got 60.5. So– Alex, can you see
    these comments? They’re actually pretty funny. I can. I got my phone
    loaded up here, so– [LAUGHING] It seems like a
    lot a lot of stuff that maybe I don’t
    fully understand, but I’m trying my best. Yeah, and neither do
    we, but that’s OK. I don’t know if they
    fully understand it. Good stuff, nonetheless. Let’s put out a trade using
    this probability of touching. Yeah. OK, guys. Yep, we get it. I mean, how would
    you look at that? If you were going
    to use that tool, and you were going to possibly
    get into an earnings plan delta, how would you use
    that tool and put it on? So I think earnings is
    a little bit different than a typical trade, because
    earnings, like I said, it really comes out of
    that market maker move. Yeah. So that almost supersedes
    everything else in terms of what
    you’re thinking about. OK. But if you think about delta,
    and you look at it on a chart, I think that’s a good
    launching point to– no pun intended on
    the delta launch, but when you look at
    where this stock is in terms of its
    trading, it doesn’t have any exposure to the
    737 Max story with Boeing. Obviously, that’s been a
    tailwind for the stock, but it also pre-released some
    numbers that we’re not great, and that’s why you’ve seen the
    stock pull back a little bit. That wasn’t on their inventory? What? 737 Max, they do not
    have exposure to it. OK, wow. So one of the only
    airlines that didn’t. But when you look at it, it’s
    kind of middle of the range Yeah. It pre-released some
    numbers that were not great, and it also has the
    tailwinds of maybe– so maybe you’re not– I guess what I’m trying to
    say is maybe you don’t know– [INAUDIBLE] –what way this
    stock’s going to go. And you’re starting to think
    about, OK, maybe it just isn’t going to move all that much. Maybe $2 is too much
    of a move priced in. You can start building
    strategies around that. And that’s where I really
    think options can do something that just stock trading
    can’t as you can play for that unchanged move. Yeah. So what kind of strategies would
    you recommend in that scenario? Well, I’m never going
    to recommend a strategy, because it’s always
    going to come down to– Well, not recommended,
    yeah, but you– That’s laying the
    trap there, Bill. Yeah, what can I say? Watch out for the bear trap. Let’s say that you
    follow the logic of, I don’t see a major
    move one way or another, or at least I don’t
    feel like there’s going to be a major move one way
    or another because of whatever reason. If that’s the area
    that you landed at, you see this $2 move,
    and now you’re thinking, OK, it might move, but
    is it going to move $2? Or is there a strategy
    that I can set up around this that
    maybe it’ll benefit if it doesn’t move the full $2? Yeah. And so maybe you start
    with, OK, a strategy that’s fairly common that people look
    at is selling the straddle, OK? Yeah. Right. The difference between just
    selling a straddle and what I’m ultimately going to end up
    here is it’s undefined risk. Right. Right. So if you sell the 54
    straddle, let’s say, that’s the closest
    strike that you can do. This gives you a little
    bit more upside room, too. You’re going to see it’s 2.18. That’s outside
    the expected move. But you have undefined
    risk to the upside, and of course, it’s
    pretty capital-intensive because you have naked
    options, essentially. Right. Do you ever use
    this feature, guys? It’s– where is it? Earnings, [INAUDIBLE] here? Hey, we just get
    dirtywillyandtheboys and JaredLetofan follow us. And then we got mythicalcryo,
    lemurking, itswags, daytradergamer. Thanks for the
    follow, by the way. Thanks for the follow, guys. Love it. So I don’t necessarily look
    at this tool a ton, Anthony, but I think the one
    thing that it really does illustrate is what we’re
    trying to take advantage of. And what this shows is it
    shows that implied volatility collapsing after earnings. A strategy like selling a
    straddle, or ultimately what I’m going to do is
    just iron butterfly, it takes advantage of that
    implied volatility coming into more normal levels
    from this elevated state that they’re in around this
    binary earnings release where there’s an
    expectation for a move because there’s new
    information that’s going to be given to the marketplace. I use it sometimes just to
    see what a past move was. Like for fiscal fourth quarter
    2017, it went from 55.86, and then, when their earnings
    were released, 58.52. So that’s a pretty sizable move. That’s over 2 bucks. Here, 51.47 up to 52.98. What Is that? About a buck 50-ish. We’ve gotten, let’s
    see, another, maybe, $0.90 there on that
    move, this one here. I don’t know, sometimes
    I go through that, and just to see, what has
    this done relative to where it’s trading now? We’ve got a $2 straddle,
    $2 market maker move. How many $2 moves has
    it made on earnings? I don’t know. No, I think that’s a
    powerful use of that screen. I think everyone does
    that, but maybe you look at the actual chart and do it. Yeah. That does the hard work for
    you and isolates those events. So that I think that’s really,
    really a powerful tool. But let’s say that you had
    that 54 straddle built out, and maybe you only
    have spread approval within the options
    account, or you’re not comfortable with undefined risk. You then can buy
    wings, as I like to refer to them as, and maybe
    buy the 51 put and the 57 call, $3 wide, and define that risk. It makes a lot less
    capital-intensive, and it also allows you to create
    a very similar risk profile, but you’re going to see that
    it’s very different here because you do have that leveled
    off max loss in both ways. One question I want
    to touch on, though, in the chat that I thought
    was kind of interesting, is how do lower
    oil prices affect airline stocks like Delta? I would think it
    would help them, because that’s less cost of– That’s right, but something
    I want to think about is that big companies like
    that, you have cruise liners and stuff like that, they’re
    going to be using futures, and they’re going to
    be largely hedged. So a lot of times,
    it will help them out or something like
    that, but you may not see the effects
    for a little while because they have a lot of their
    position– knowing that they’re going to be a large buyer of
    that, they’re going to they’re going to a lot of their
    position already hedged in the current market. So– I feel like if there’s
    a big spike in oil, you will see that right away
    when you do go to travel. Yeah. But when there’s a large
    downward spike in oil, it takes a while
    for ticket prices to really come back
    into equilibrium. Which is actually
    beneficial for the company as they’re maybe
    spending less money. It makes those margins
    a little bit better. Yeah. But I think– what I thought
    you were going to say there, which I think is important,
    too, is when you see sharp moves in crude oil, you
    do typically see– not always, but you see a
    reaction in the airliner stocks as well. Right, yeah. When crude oil spiked
    on the Saudi Arabia attacks that we saw, what
    is it, two, three weeks ago, all the airlines, whether
    that was United, Delta, Southwest, and American, they
    were all down pretty sizably initially on that
    reactionary kind of trade. So you do see a little bit
    of an inverse relationship. I think that’s broken
    down, as Bill points out, as they’ve gotten a little bit
    better at hedging those risks. Yeah. Absolutely. This is an interesting
    trade here. So I mean, this chart, this
    graph that we’re looking at, looks pretty typical
    to an iron condor, except for it comes to a peak. Yeah. And the reason why
    it’s coming into a peak is because both of your short
    strikes are at the same strike. So it’s going to look more like
    a teepee kind of shape there with the max profit at
    your short strikes, 54, and then you have your
    defined risk at 51, because that’s your
    long put, and then defined risk at the 57 strike. So you’re really trying to take
    advantage of that market maker move. $1.75 credit? Not bad. Yeah, I think that
    there’s expectations that need to be set when
    you’re still selling a straddle, or an
    iron butterfly, or really any type of a
    premium-selling strategy. Especially when it’s a
    straddle or an Iron butterfly, though, it’s going to be
    very difficult to capture this full credit
    that you received. Almost impossible, right? Exactly. So this is a trade
    that, you know, you’re seeing that we’re doing
    the October 11 cycle here, so we only have until Friday. But this is one that you’re
    looking to potentially take this off tomorrow morning. Yeah. If Delta opens up anywhere
    between 53 and 55, and you had the opportunity
    to buy this back for less than $1.75, a shrewd
    trader may look to do that, at least– in whole or in
    part, because you’re really just trading this
    event, and you’re trying to take advantage
    of that premium coming in. And as you said, it’s going
    to be really hard to capture the full amount, and so– It has dependent 54. Right, very rare. [INAUDIBLE] I mean, you’ve got to be– Not only that, you have to
    buy both of those wings back, the short wings back, for a
    penny, or let [INAUDIBLE]—- yeah, I mean, you’re not
    expecting the full boat on this one, but you’re definitely
    trying to get something. Right. Even if it’s 50%, that
    would be fantastic. And sometimes, when you
    have an oscillating stock, sometimes you can take
    off a short in the body, If it rallies up
    and you think it’s going to come back down,
    a reactionary move, that maybe faded later. But that’s also– if you
    have a winning trade on, sometimes it’s just
    good to cut and run. Yeah. Let’s take that money and
    go on to the next idea. Yeah. I mean, we can think about it
    in terms of return on capital, too. Right now, you’re
    basically only going to set aside $125 for
    each one of these spreads. If you could buy
    this back for $1– and I’m by no means guaranteeing
    that you can or anything like that; I have no idea
    what’s going to happen– but if you could return
    $75 on $125 in one day– Huge win. –that’s a huge percentage
    gain on that capital risk. But it’s not a guarantee. And so you’ve got to look
    at things in terms of that, sometimes, too. But you also have to
    be conscious, too, this is much more of a– not necessary risky trade,
    but with one day to go, and it’s this
    earnings play, this becomes much more a win or a
    lose trade in terms of this is either going to be
    within that expectation or it’s going to be without– or outside of. And that that’s going
    to make this a lot more of a risky trade, I guess. Yeah. Absolutely. Risking 125 on the
    upside, and the downside beyond the 51 and 57 strike. We can go ahead and put this
    on, but before we do that, how would you manage this? Because what we do is,
    week to week– well– and we’ll probably talk to
    you about it in the office, but our viewers won’t see. What’s a good exit
    strategy on this? What are you look for? Are you trying to get
    it back for a buck? Is that what you’re saying? I mean, what if this goes
    drastically against you? What if we get a
    move to 50 bucks? So I think every trader
    is a little bit different, but let’s put it this way. If you’re doing a lot of
    these kind of earnings trades where you’re doing
    similar strategies on a lot of different names,
    I think the easiest way to not beat yourself up from
    trying to time one thing or another is to do it
    the same way every time. And so that’s not always going
    to be the best, most optimal way to do it, but if you’re
    trading a lot of earnings, maybe you take them off at
    the market open each day. Maybe you look at– the more you try to finesse
    your way on each strategy, it potentially opens
    it up for more losses, but it also opens it up
    to put emotions into it and beat yourself up. Yeah. So to me, this is one where,
    if you have an opportunity tomorrow morning to take this
    off for any profit at all, assuming that you’re making
    this trade around earnings, I don’t see why you wouldn’t
    stick to that plan going in once you have that earnings
    announcement come out. So any profit that we
    have in the morning, we should just take it out. Yeah, that could be– I mean if this is
    what we’re playing, we’re playing the event,
    let’s play the event, and let’s see what happens. Can we bet on you in a three– what? Three in a foot race? Oh, he wants us to foot race. We could do that. Yeah. We talked about doing some
    stuff outside of the studio. Yeah. We could definitely
    do some stuff. Maybe– I mean, it’d be a waste of money
    because I would take that one. I want to– they think– [INTERPOSING VOICES] I think Anthony is pretty fast. Yeah, he’s– I’m scrappy, but– But I’ve got a long stride. He’s got– yeah. [LAUGHS] I’ve got a long stride. He does, he does. It could be like
    that Seinfeld episode with Jerry– who did
    his race against? Oh, yeah, the guy– What was his name? Obie, come on,
    you’ve got to know. He said he cheated. What’s his name? Yeah, well, whatever. If you know the name
    that we’re talking about, throw it in the chat. Maybe we’ll send you
    a breakfast sandwich– There’s the Superman music
    going in the background. –wherever you’re at. Yeah, but let’s go and
    throw this baby on. Let’s get this baby on. All right, how many times do
    we want to put it on, guys? Well, that’s the question. What quantity are
    we looking at here? Well, our max– OK, so I’m going to bring
    up our order ticket, and we’re going to open that up. We’re looking at
    $1.75 in the mid. So size here? I mean, how confident
    are we in this? I mean, I think it’s
    a good risk-reward. We’re only going to
    put it on for one day, hopefully manage it tomorrow. I think we could do more
    than a one lot here. I think– What do you think, Alex? Because you were
    talking this morning that you like to keep
    trades to a certain dollar amount sometimes. And then, obviously–
    and then there’s how confident you
    are in a trade. So that brings up a whole
    ‘nother can of worms about size and how much we
    would possibly do. Maybe I’m a little
    pessimistic, but I always think of things in
    worst-case scenario. And if I– Note, this is not
    real money, guys. Paper money, paper money. And if I’m not comfortable
    in the worst-case scenario, then I shouldn’t be putting
    myself in that situation. So if I’m not comfortable losing
    much more than $125 in case this goes completely
    against me, then I’m not going to do
    this one more than once. Yeah. But it just comes down to
    the size of the account. I mean, we’re playing
    with, one, virtual money, and it’s also a million
    dollars in virtual money. I think you could you can
    afford to do more than one on this particular trade. OK. Want to just put on our 10? We could do that. Yeah, lets do a 10 lot. Let’s see how it goes. But they also think,
    Coffey, that if you stay up in the wind, that you
    might win that footrace. And I agree with
    that because if he gets a good, nice
    breeze in front of him, he’s got broad shoulders. Yeah, he does. So the wind could possibly– for me, there’s not as much
    aerodynamics going on there. I’ve also got the long strike,
    but I’m going to be honest. I don’t know ,that hair
    says otherwise, Anthony. I’m not that fast. That’s pretty aerodynamic. I don’t know. [LAUGHS] All right, let’s put this
    thing on for a 10 lot. How about that? Is that OK? Yeah, that sounds good. Yeah. All right, we’re
    going to do a 10. We’re going to put it
    in the mid and then consider commissions there. Now everybody sits
    at, what, $0.65. I’m not sure our
    paper money account is– it looks like it is now. Yep, and you’ve always got to– always, with these, is
    options, multi-leg options. This could be pretty
    commission-intensive sometimes, so that’s something
    to keep in mind. 40 of them. There is 40 of them. We did get filled
    at $1.76, I believe. Let’s go back and check. And we did, indeed,
    get filled at $1.76. So that means the
    most we could lose on this trade, the difference
    between the two strikes here, right? We’ve got three on both ends. 3 minus $1.26 is $1.24. Right. I’m good at math too, Alex. Well, keep in mind, also. So like we said, we’re
    in a paper money account. We’ve got a 176
    we went in at 175 we got price and prove it
    that might not necessarily be the case in a real
    money trade, right? We may– Probably not. They might fade you on those. Well, that could be, too. Yeah, all right. Well I’m still obsessed
    with this probability of touch thing. Would Disney be a
    better one to look at? [INAUDIBLE] Yeah, I think it would be. I think one thing, if we could
    quickly kind of touch base on, is just because I know
    that Twitch skews primarily to a younger demographic. I feel that you know I’m
    representative of a younger demographic, at least in
    this industry, at least here at TD Ameritrade. You saying I’m old? I wasn’t. I wasn’t fully saying– Wow– [INTERPOSING VOICES] –on blast. I’m 33 years young,
    according to some, but to others, I might be older. So we’ll just let you
    guys keep the chat guess. I guess what I was
    trying to get at, though, is you talked a little
    bit about how commission structures have
    changed, and obviously, the move towards zero
    on equity trades, $0.65 for each option contract. And when I got started
    this more in 2015, we are still at $10 a
    trade and the $0.75, and it made it a little bit more
    difficult for a younger person to try to learn this stuff
    that you’re reading about and you’re studying about. And let alone the fact
    that we’ve already talked about the resources
    that are available to you now, whether that’s Twitch, whether
    that’s the TD Ameritrade network, whether that’s
    other educational resources on tdameritrade.com,
    all the pieces are in place that if you’re wanting
    to learn more about this and get more involved,
    are there now to make this easier,
    and easier, and easier. And until you actually step on– we were making the
    golf analogy off air. You can watch as many
    videos about golf, you can read as many books
    about golf as you want. You can even take
    practice swings. But– and t that’s kind
    of like paper money is taking a practice swing. Until you hit a
    golf ball, you don’t know what that feeling’s
    like until you try. So true. And that’s the same way. And it’s different in the range
    than it is on the course, too. Yeah, even more so. Yeah. And that could be
    your volatility in terms of different type of
    environments in the market. But I guess the point
    I’m trying to make is, until you actually
    jump in and try to do it, it’s really hard to learn this. We have all the stuff there
    to give you the resources, but you have to
    go out and do it. And given where the climate
    is now, with the technology and commission
    structures where they are, the earlier you
    can get involved and try to learn this stuff,
    I think the better you’re going to set yourself up. That being said, let’s
    take a look at Disney. Yeah, let’s take
    a look at Disney. And you know what, too? Now that I’m completely
    neurotic– thank you, Alex Coffey– I want everybody to chat in– Now? That’s now? That’s just
    happening now, right? All right, well, [INAUDIBLE],,
    how old do you think I am? And maybe I’ll tell you
    by the end of the show. How old do I look? How old do you think I am? We’ll throw that in there. I know the answer. I won’t ruin it for everyone. Because some of the
    other stuff in there is not pleasing to my eyes,
    so we’ll talk about my age, thank you very little. OK, so here’s a one-year
    chart on Disney. Yeah. OK? And we have a low
    of 100, high of 147. So is there another chart
    you want to look at, Alex? No, I think this gives you a
    decent idea of the last year. But I think if you
    pull this back to maybe a five-year weekly
    chart, it’s going to paint more of a
    picture about how Disney’s performed as a stock. Maybe three years
    would work, too. Three years, yeah. But really, I guess the
    point I’m trying to make is Disney is traditionally
    more of a blue chip Dow name. It doesn’t
    necessarily– it’s more of a dividend-paying stock. It’s kind of steady as
    she goes, traditionally. And in its price
    action, you see it kind of oscillate up and down,
    but really, a lot of sideways. Then they announced Disney Plus. They announced that
    they’re going to step into the streaming space. And all of a sudden, you
    see the stock basically move three years worth
    of movement in a week. Yeah. As that’s new, potentially,
    excitement around this move. Huge name. Absolutely. The move you’re talking
    about is right here, right? Right. And you see that they’ve
    kind of established– Yeah, big move, massive. But now it’s
    established a new range, and now that that
    information’s been processed and we have more of an idea
    of what Disney Plus is maybe going to mean for Disney, is
    it– and this is a question that we don’t necessarily
    know the answer to– is it important to think
    about how it was in the past? Is it going to be more
    of a blue chip stock now with this new
    piece of information that’s been processed,
    or is this now a growth stock that is going to
    the moon, or whatever. Right, sure. But basically, I
    guess my point is that the history tells us this
    is more of a blue chip name. The market processed this
    new piece of information, and now maybe this new range
    is being established higher up above the market, or
    where it was before. rollingonchrome, I am not
    12, but I do act like it and have been accused
    of it more than once. Yeah, I did that last week. But I’m not 12. But I love the
    other guesses, too. 36, 32, 39, and something said,
    hey, “evelen” That’s not 11. That’s– Wow, we have Anthony
    focusing in on his age here. I told you, I’m becoming
    more neurotic by the second. [LAUGHING] All right. So I’m not surprised. Let’s go to the trade
    tab and take a look at some of these probabilities. Mm-hmm. And so if we’re looking at it,
    I think we might want to with– By the way, KingBill, we
    can’t really talk about AMTD. Yeah, can’t do it. Can’t do that. Sorry, buddy. Yep. Yeah, it’s confidential. But when you’re
    looking at Disney, we’re not making an
    earnings play with this one. They don’t have earnings, I
    don’t think, until sometime in November. Let’s check it out. So we can– it’s
    November 7, I believe, but yeah, you can pull
    it up here real quick. You’re a machine. I got it written down. Yes it is, November 7,
    after the market closes. But– AMD we can talk about. –let’s pull back to
    the trading [INAUDIBLE] We can definitely
    talk about AMD. Let’s talk about them next. If we can go back
    to the Trade tab, it wouldn’t make a lot
    of sense, I don’t think, at this point to look at a
    two-date expiration option. I agree. I think we can go
    all the way out, even, to November
    1 or so to give us all the way out to that
    expiration before the earnings release. OK, so we said the 7th,
    so I think the– right? Was it the 7th in earnings? Yeah, [INAUDIBLE]. So you go all the
    way out to Nov 1. Nov 1, then, yep. And so one thing
    that I really like to use these
    probabilities for is trying to get an idea of setting
    an expectation about where the stock may or may not be
    throughout that time period. And if you look at the
    implied volatility, that’s just for the overall option
    chain, in the parentheses, there’s also an expected move. Guys, if you don’t mind, I’m
    going to out the last in here because it’s just
    taking up a little bit too much real estate. Yeah, go for it There. Yeah, you got it? There you go. I don’t think we
    can take out last. No, last is– No, last price you can. Last ex, you can take that out. We don’t need that. I don’t think you can, actually. Yeah, you can. See you have it there? Oh, you’re right. Yep. What was that, Bill? Yeah, yeah, you’re right. I’m sorry, I missed that. You’re right. The bid/ask you can’t take out. I don’t hear so well
    in this left ear. I’m sorry. Yeah. I’m sorry. OK. But you’re going
    to see, I guess, on the side of that option
    chain for the November 1s that there’s basically a plus or
    minus $5.79, round that to 80, in terms of a one
    standard deviation. So like 68% chance
    that it’s going to be you know up within– up $5.80 and down $5.80. Right. And so you start
    thinking about that the same way that you look
    at the market maker move, or whatever that might be. Yeah. But when you start
    thinking about strategies, let’s say that you look at
    Disney and you love Disney. You’re like, oh, Disney
    Plus is going to be great. It’s still got this
    great parks thing, whatever you might want to do. You look at the company profile. Even on the company, you see
    an idea of what the company’s revenue streams are. It’s kind of a low end of
    an intermediate range, too, to be honest with you, right? That’s right. We looked at an 180-day here,
    and it’s starting to come– I mean, obviously, after
    this pop, if we just look at this particular shot
    right here, kind of coming back down to the 130-ish level. So may be a bull trade here. I don’t know. Right, but let’s say that
    you’re setting that up– or whatever it might be. But anyway, let’s just say
    that you start with the one– let’s even say
    that you want to be a little bit more
    aggressive, and you’re like the 128 put strike. Yeah. You’re pretty close, and you’re
    basically right at the money. You’re going to see– you
    have a 38 delta on that, so that’s going to correspond
    to roughly a 38% chance of that expiring in the money. And the big piece, though,
    is that probability of touching that we
    were talking about. 80%. You have an 80% chance
    over the next 23 days that Disney is going
    to touch that strike. Yeah. You’re right. So if you put a trade on
    with that strike in mind, there’s a– Be prepared. You might be tested. There’s an eight
    out of 10 chance that you’re going to be tested. Your emotions are
    going to be tested more than anything, really, right? Right, and so you still
    have a 60% chance, if you’re taking the
    inverse of that delta, that you’re going to
    expire out of the money or be profitable at
    that expiration date. Yeah. But you have an 80% chance of
    taking some heat along the way. Yeah. And so I think that sets
    expectations around it. But maybe you’re not
    comfortable with 80% heat and you want to make
    that closer to 50-50. Maybe you go down
    to the $1.25 strike, and you see that that’s
    roughly a dollar there. Maybe you start by selling
    that, and maybe you– [INAUDIBLE] have a
    good day at the gym. You start setting up a
    strategy similar to what we did in Delta Airlines, or
    whatever you might want to do, depending on what
    that bias might be. Pony boys. Pony boys. Yeah, I mean– I like the 1.25 level,
    too, because it’s a psychological number, too. Right. Right. And plus, if we
    were to spread that, too, we’d be collecting, what? Something like $0.80
    right now, too? If we did what? If we spread the 1.28, 1.25? On this guy right here. Are you– that’s going
    to be fairly aggressive. And I think– Look at that number, right? We’re looking at, what, 80%? Oh, we just got filled on MES. Oh, we just got filled. The chat was right once again. Don’t fade the chat. Don’t fade that chat. Anthony wrong once again. Two breakfast
    sandwiches to none. But we still have
    a few more shows. I think the payable date
    of that is November 1. No, no. Yeah, but yeah, so that is a
    little bit more aggressive, and if we were to move out,
    we’d have a little bit safer– a little bit more breathing
    room, let’s just say. Not necessarily safer. I think because looking at
    the 1.25 strike, [INAUDIBLE].. I think that it’s worth
    talking about either way, because I think if you’re
    going to be a little bit more biased directionally, you
    can afford to potentially be a little bit more aggressive. So if you’re bullish
    Disney, inherently, you’re not as worried
    about the downside. You can be closer on that end
    because you have that bias, and you want to set
    it up so you’re going to make money if you’re right. Yeah. And of course, conversely, if
    you’re more bearish Disney, maybe you’d be more
    aggressive on the call side. Yeah. But if you’re going to
    take more of a neutral or play the
    range-bound, or the fact that Disney has isolated
    in a range historically, you’re going to
    have the opportunity to collect both sides, so you
    can be a little bit farther away. Yeah, that’s great. Let’s put some on here, and then
    we’ll look at AMD real quick and wrap it up. So we could put on a
    vertical, put vertical here. Yeah, well, the
    question is, do we want to take advantage
    of the downside, or both sides with
    some sort of condor? Hmm, I don’t know. What do you think, Alex? What do you think? I think that you can make
    an argument for either one. You mentioned that’s at
    the lower end of the range, so maybe you kind of
    combine the strategies. Maybe you do an iron
    condor, but you’re a little bit more
    aggressive on where you set that put vertical so
    that you can still even take a neutral strategy, skew it a
    little bit so that it reflects your, maybe, directional
    bias to the upside. What we could do, too,
    you know what we could do? I mean, we could
    build something here. We get a lot of
    time to expiration. We could put on a short
    put vertical, obviously, a bull spread. If we get a rally, maybe we
    sell an upside call spread to hedge that a little bit. [INAUDIBLE] Hedge some of those deltas. Maybe we can go ahead
    and do some of that. Which is, now that you have
    the commission schedule where it is, I think that that
    becomes more and more economical nowadays to do things that
    way and leg into those trades. Right. [INAUDIBLE] now, you don’t
    worry about that ticket charge. All right, let’s
    put one on here. What would it be? Like maybe, like I
    said, if we’re not that afraid of the
    downside, we could do the 1.28, 1.25 put vertical. Right, and then
    maybe do a condor on the other side a little
    bit higher, further away. But I’m saying, maybe we
    could wait on that one and do it later. If we get a rally on
    it, then we could, boom. Yeah, I don’t mind that. I don’t mind that. I don’t think that’s
    out of the question for a strategy like this. You guys OK with
    a 1.28, 1.25 put? Yeah. Alex? Yeah, works for me. You good? All right. 1.28, 1.25. Well, how many times do we
    want to put this thing on? This one. So we’ve got $3 wide, 82, 2.18– And remember, we’re going
    to scale into this position, too, so we don’t
    have to put 10 on. Right. We can use some bullets. We can put four or five on
    now, maybe put four or five on later, and build a position
    from now until earnings. I think that’s a great point. We have the opportunity, without
    the ticket cost, to scale in. So maybe let’s try a
    five lot, and if we still like it next week,
    we’ll do another five. Five lot it is. Selling the put vertical, $0.82. Yeah, perfect. Then we get $0.65, 10 contracts
    on five [INAUDIBLE] spreads. That gets us 6.50 in commission. Disney movie that can best be
    improved with more milk– go! I don’t know, Cars? Cars? Yeah. I don’t think there’s
    any milk in that. [LAUGHING] Disney, someone says–
    rollingonchrome says, Disney doesn’t really rally, it
    fills you with hope and misery. I don’t know if that
    chart indicates that. No. I mean– That’s actually
    looking pretty good. –it depends on when
    you got on, I guess. AMD, we’re going to look
    at AMD real quick before we close this thing out. Who brought up AMD? I think rollingonchrome
    did, DarkSuperman did. What you guys want
    to look at there? We could look at a
    few different things. Well, let’s start by
    looking at a chart. We always start there, right? Right? All right, AMD’s chart. 16, I mean, a
    couple of years ago. Coming off the top end of the
    range, slowly trending down. That’s even more interesting. Kind of a similar
    chart to Disney, except with the exception of the
    large breakout that Disney had. Yeah. When– I think those off
    good earnings and guidance that it popped off that. Yeah, this three-year
    chart is definitely impressive to the upside there. 6.22 on the three-year low. Mm-hmm. And now we’re sitting up at 35. They’ve had a lot of
    new chips coming out, all kinds of good
    products, basically, in their pipeline
    competing with Intel. So I know that’s part of
    some of the news there. This is a one here– This is also one of
    the most widely traded, widely watched
    names on the street. Very much, yeah. You look at the amount
    of volume of shares, I think it was over 28
    million already on the day. It’s a lower price point stock. A lot of strategies come
    into play with that. It’s higher implied volatility. There’s a lot to be
    interested in with this name, but as you mentioned it, you’re
    also talking about a start to went from beginning the
    year 16, to 35, back to 28. So it’s not really
    for the faint. That’s true. Right, right. That’s true. This is one where any
    sort of market news– I think this is a
    very high beta stock, so any market news
    is going to move. It if you take a
    look– yeah, 2.94. That’s a very big beta
    on there, so that’s going to move quite a
    bit when the market does. So what do you think
    would be a good move here? Maybe if we’re thinking– It has earnings fairly soon. Yeah. Yeah, it looks like there’s
    a little intermediate triple bottom there, too. I know it’s– I do
    watch this quite often. I’ve been a follower
    of AMD for years, and I’ve really kind of
    see it come from nothing, to something, and nothing. I’ve seen it go from rags
    to riches several times. This one could be a sustained
    move to the upside here, but like I said, there’s
    a triple bottom here. Do you see this, guys? It’s putting in one, two, three. I do. The question is, does that hold? Does that hold? That’s the question. Triple bottoms have a
    hard time doing that. Chat, we can put something
    out if you guys want. Yeah, which direction
    do you guys thinking? You guys bull? We could put in a bull vertical. We could put in a– we
    could buy a call spread, sell a put spread. We can go out to– when
    are their earnings? 23rd, 23rd. Of? This month. October, OK. Mm-hmm. OK, so I mean, we probably
    want that, the earnings, to play into it. I don’t know, do we? Or do we want to get
    out before the earning? Oh, it depends. That’s two weeks out. Do we want to hold on that long? rollingonchrome is saying
    he wants to go bull. ShortSPX saying it’s going down. Any third votes in there,
    because that’s going to be– well somebody’s saying strangle,
    trading a classic milk spread. Wow, a lot of activity. They’re going after
    your background, buddy. Bear and bull, bear and bull. Bull, real money. We don’t do real money
    here, buddy, sorry. Well? Want to do bull? Let’s do bull. Let’s see how it goes. All right, buying a call spread? Selling a put spread? You know, I’m not– sometimes when there’s a
    high implied volatility, sometimes it’s not as
    advantageous to buy a call spread. It’s true. But we could try it
    out on this one to see. No, I’m OK with that. You’re actually
    right about that. I mean, if we have a lot of
    implied volatility baked in, and we’re going to see
    some of that bleed out, why would we buy it, right? We’re going to
    want to sell that. Plus, from now until
    expiration, might get a little more of a
    pump in those options, too, so maybe don’t
    put on the full 10 lot. Maybe we scale into this. And again, because of the zero
    commission, $0.65 a contract, no ticket charge, you can scale
    in and out of strategies now, and it doesn’t cost
    anything extra. Right, so taking a
    look at this chart, where are we
    thinking strike-wise? Maybe if we’re doing a long
    call spread, what are we doing? On the upside? Yeah. I think maybe we go along
    the 30 and then short, maybe, the 32-ish? Yeah I think that may
    be able to work out. We’ll pop that in
    there and take a look. We are short the 32. This one’s 67. $2 wide. 1 to 4– no, that’s
    roughly 1 to 4. So if we do 67– I often think of it
    in how many times we can double our
    initial investment. So three times? rollingonchrome, I’m
    not sure where you’re going to send your resume. Did you try tdameritrade.com? tdameritrade.com. We’re always hiring. Well, so just like
    you said, Anthony, I think also we should try
    and scale into this, maybe. Yeah, but this guy is trying
    to steal your job, man. I don’t like it. I think he’s trying
    to get, like, he wants to put in an
    application for your job. Wow, well, good. Yeah, let’s see. We’ll try it out. I don’t know. [LAUGHS] I love you, man. [LAUGHS] But you know what? We’re going to be moving
    up to the eighth floor. We might add somebody,
    so who knows? But I don’t know. He seemed a little bit
    stalker-ish, rollingonchrome. I don’t know. All right, well– all right,
    let’s take a look at this and get this baby on here. Let’s do it. So 67, we’ll scale into it. Maybe if we like it more, we’ll
    put something else on and take another look next week. I like it. 67, we’ll try and get
    it in at the midpoint. Paper money account, so I would
    imagine we get filled there. And you’re filled. And we’re filled. We’ve got three. This, on the CBOE floor,
    Matt, you’re filled. I don’t know, did you
    guys do that on the CME? Did you do, like, a broker
    when they would say whatever? I don’t know. I know some of the arm
    symbols, but we never really had to use that. I was in a really small pit. I was in the milk pit. See, we didn’t use
    arm symbols, no. We didn’t, no. I know, but– All right. All right, well– I have one more request– and this is again, somebody,
    from the trade desk. And this right here is not mine. This magazine is not mine. It’s actually Puffer’s. He wanted your
    autograph, and he wanted you to sign it live on stream. So if you could do that, Puffer
    would be forever grateful. Why am I not surprised
    by that in the least? Because it’s
    trading desk banter. Oh, I’m sorry buddy. There you go. Oh, there we go. There you go. So there it is, Puffer. I had him do it for you. All right. He’s signing it live on stream. You have video evidence of that. There can only be one. To PFR, love, Alex. See, now the more
    that I’m thinking about this, that’s very– There we go. I like that you put PFR
    on it, because now he can’t sell it, right? If you put– Right? Yeah, that’s what. That’s why. If you put the
    person’s name on it, then it can never
    be worth any more. All right, well, we
    appreciate you coming on. Yeah, thanks, Alex. It’s definitely awesome. Yeah. It’s definitely fun. I had never really
    seen that tool before, and I think that’s
    pretty helpful. I’m going to start looking
    at that from now on. Yeah, me, too. Me, too, for sure. Yeah, that is
    definitely very cool. The probability of touching. Well, thanks for
    having me, guys. It was fun. Yeah, for sure. Oh, yeah, absolutely. All right, guys,
    thanks for joining us. Don’t forget to catch
    us every Wednesday live at twitch.tv/tdameritrade. Every Wednesday, 1:00
    to 2:00 PM, we are live, we are streaming,
    we’re here for you. Remember, guys, this
    is always your show. Make sure you check out all
    of our great education content at YouTube because we are going
    to archive this after the show, and go to tdameritrade.com
    under the Education tab. A lot of great stuff there. Cafeaulait. Cafeaulait? Oh, thanks for the
    follow, Cafeaulait. Yeah, and Harlequinfollow. Did we see that? Harlequinfollow, we didn’t. What’s your Twitter handle? Follow Bill on Twitter. @wruby_tda. Follow Alex on Twitter. What is yours? alexcoffey_tda. Awesome. Mine is @apanzeca_tda. ‘Til next week, I’m Anthony
    Panzeca along with– I’m Bill Ruby. –and Alex Coffey
    saying, so long, guys. Happy trading. Happy trading people. Thanks for watching. Thanks for coming in. [WHOOSH] [MUSIC PLAYING]

    Can You Get Rich by Following the “Smart Money”? / Follow institutional order flow Dark pool trading
    Articles, Blog

    Can You Get Rich by Following the “Smart Money”? / Follow institutional order flow Dark pool trading

    October 8, 2019


    Can You Get Rich by Following the “Smart Money”? // Follow institutional order flow, dark pool trading, block trades, on balance volume, on balance volume indicator, dark pool explained, stock market investing strategies welcome to looking at the markets with David Moadel today we’re going to try to answer the
    question can you get rich by following the smart
    money block trades institutional order flow these are some of the terms that vaguely
    lead us to the notion of smart money these evidently are powerful investors
    that make profitable trades before the dumb money or retail traders try to jump
    on the bandwagon but inevitably end up missing the boat often it is asked whether retail traders
    can trade alongside the smart money mirroring their trades and effectively
    piggybacking or riding their coattails – big profits who is the smart money
    anyway the term smart money generally refers to
    some or all of the following high-frequency traders hedge funds
    market makers large institutions algorithm-based investors and any person
    or institution that makes very large volume trades at any given time the
    vagueness of the term smart money makes it difficult for retail traders to
    follow them because it’s not exactly clear who they are besides the trades of large investors
    can be highly misleading and blindly following their moves might not benefit
    retail traders for all we know a seemingly bullish moved by the smart
    money might actually be short covering or a
    hedge against a bigger bearish position for example buying shares or calls of SP
    why as a hedge against a larger position in a vicks product or classic market
    manipulation using their big influence to drive up the price of a stock before
    retail gets in and then selling while retail is left holding the bag while a
    seemingly bearish moved by the smart money might actually be profit-taking or
    scaling out of a bigger foolish position or a deliberate attempt to take out retail stop losses before turning around
    and pushing the price higher besides some of the really big trades
    aren’t available for retail traders to view until hours later or even a day
    later by then it’s probably too late to do anything useful with the knowledge of
    those trades while retail trades are transparent the
    smart money has the privilege of making temporarily secret or hidden trades this is known as dark pole trading and
    while it might be controversial it’s currently legal in the United
    States Chartists might try to use obv or on balance volume as a proxy for smart
    money movement in order to predict where price action will go personally I find that on balance volume
    tends to move in tandem with price action rather than before it thus
    diminishing its predictive ability to conclude I would recommend against
    trying to follow the smart money as a get rich strategy instead focus on
    building a safe consistent plan for long-term growth in your trading account
    if you’d like more help with this or with anything having to do with finance
    stocks or options please feel free to contact me my name
    is David Modell you can reach me anytime at David Modell
    @ gmail.com I hope this was helpful and I hope to
    hear from you very soon

    Articles

    TradeMONSTER Covered Call Demonstration by TradeComparison.com

    October 6, 2019


    tradeMONSTER is one of a few brokerage firms
    that allows prospective customers to sign up and test out their platform using a “Paper
    Trading” account. The paper trading software operates the same
    as it does with a full account, except of course that you’re not using real money and
    a few colors are slightly different. We’ll be using a paper trading account for
    this demonstration, and we encourage anyone considering tradeMONSTER to open a virtual
    trading account so you can test-drive the software yourself. Before we jump into the demonstration, we
    have a few high-level observations about the tradeMONSTER trading software that could impact
    your use of it. The tradeMONSTER software uses Adobe’s Flash
    Player. This allows tradeMONSTER to provide features
    which are more typical of a desktop application than a web browser. The use of the Adobe Flash Player means that
    data can be updated without having to refresh the entire browser page. The software should run on older computers
    and browsers as long as a current version of the Adobe Flash Player is installed, but
    it will run proportionally slower on a slower computer. Most people already have the Adobe Flash Player
    installed, but Adobe Flash cannot be installed on older smartphones or any Apple iPhone or
    iPad. For the iPhone or iPad, tradeMONSTER has developed
    a separate iPhone app. If your work computer or a friend’s computer
    doesn’t already have Adobe Flash installed and you don’t have permissions to install
    it, then you may not be able to run the tradeMONSTER software. OK, let’s jump in and use the software. We believe one of the first things brokerage
    firm software should do is quickly get you to the place you want to be. For example, some vendors let you select a
    starting page when you login. tradeMONSTER does not provide that option,
    but they still do a good job by automatically selecting and displaying the last account
    you viewed, the last page you were viewing, and the last ticker you were viewing. For this demonstration, we’re going to start
    on the “Quote” screen. Here we see tradeMONSTER’s default layout
    with two thin columns on either side of the main view in the center. This allow tradeMONSTER to show a tremendous
    amount of information that can at first be confusing but you should quickly come to appreciate. Each of the individual displays in the side
    columns can be collapsed or expanded by clicking on the plus or minus sign next to it’s label
    , and they can be re-arranged by simply dragging and dropping from one location to another. tradeMONSTER also provides a graphical drop-down
    selection to quickly show or hide either of the side columns. Since you don’t even have to go to another
    screen of preferences to change the display, you really shouldn’t hesitate to change the
    layout even if for just a few moments to see more information in the main view. tradeMONSTER really did a great job making
    the layout flexible while still being incredibly quick & easy to use. We like that TradeMonster puts a small list
    of positions and orders into the left column by default. By doing this, it becomes less important for
    users to start on one of the main “Account” pages which tends to be the default starting
    point for a lot of other brokerage firm software. If you do want to see a larger display of
    account information such as positions, there is a “Menu” button which will let you switch
    to see the positions in the main view. We also want to point out that this menu button
    has a selection to display the positions in a “New Window”. It’s definitely nice to be able to take advantage
    of larger monitors and move pieces like this off to the side so you can see them even when
    the trading software isn’t your main focus. Alternatively you can use the main navigation
    at the top, first hovering your mouse over the “Account” menu at the top and then selecting
    “Positions” from the secondary navigation items. Note that all the sub-menu selections such
    as orders, positions and messages become the next row of navigation after we select positions. The only minor thing we don’t like about the
    various account pages is that we lose the field to quickly type a symbol, but it’s easy
    enough to go back to the quote page by making the “Quote” selection from below the “Trade”
    menu. Once back on any of the trading pages we can
    type a ticker into the field immediately below “Trading” to change the display. Unfortunately we can ONLY type a ticker here. Typing in a company name results in a message
    that says, “Symbol could not be found”. That’s a little disappointing that we can’t
    simply search for a company name from here. If you want to actually search for a security
    by name, you need to click on the small white triangle on the right side of the ticker field
    which will drop down a list of your recently viewed symbols with a lookup button on the
    top row. We think the list of most recently viewed
    symbols is a really nice touch, but we’re here to search for a security by name so we’re
    going to click on the “lookup” button. Unfortunately the symbol lookup window initially
    appears completely blank, even though we already typed in a company name in the ticker field. For as much as we thought tradeMONSTER did
    a great job letting users quickly change the entire layout without leaving the main window,
    we think they missed the boat with this symbol lookup. To lookup a company by name we have to first
    click on the white triangle to show the drop-down list, then we have to click the “Lookup” button,
    and finally anything we typed before is thrown out. Even now, tradeMONSTER doesn’t show search
    results as we type each character. Instead we have to press the “Search” button
    or type a return character. When you compare this to a site that simply
    lets you type any ticker or company into the first field and shows results as you type
    each character, this symbol lookup is really innefficient. It is nice that the “Search by” selection
    defaults to “description” but it’s also disappointing that we can’t search for the symbol or the
    description at the same time. The next selection lets us pick whether we
    want to restrict our search to instruments such as only stocks or indices or mutual funds. It surprising that tradeMONSTER restricts
    the list of instruments to only show the first 5 instruments without scrolling since there
    are only a total of 8 entries in the list and this dialog could easily be a little taller,
    as we’ll see in a few moments. By scrolling down to see the bottom 3 instrument
    selections, we see the last entry lets you search across “Any Instrument” which makes
    us wonder why we can’t have a similar selection for the “search by” field to let us search
    by the description or symbol at the same time. On a more positive note, we love that tradeMONSTER
    lets you view 10, 20, or 40 results. It’s really helpful when searching for something
    in the description that is a more generic word. tradeMONSTER nicely takes this one step further
    by taking the window of results and automatically making it taller when you have a longer list
    of results, and they add a scrollbar to let you see even more in the list. This may not sound like a big deal, but a
    lot of other brokerage firm software only shows the top few items. Clicking on any of the results in the list
    selects that security to display in the main view. For our demonstration, we’re going to trade
    IWM. tradeMONSTER provides multiple ways to initiate the purchase of our buy-write, but
    we’re going to start by selecting the “Options” view. The default display shows a typical chain
    with calls and puts. The display shows as many columns of information
    as possible, depending on how big your display is, and there are horizontal scrollbars at
    the bottom to allow you to see more columns of information for the calls and the puts. There is also a “Menu” button to let you select
    which columns to display so you might not need to scroll as much. Immediately above the option chain is a row
    of selections for the expiration series to display. This row also has a horizontal scrollbar which
    you can use to see more expirations than can be displayed on the screen at once, but it
    is really nice to only have to click once to select one of the expiration series that
    are displayed on the screen. There is a control for the number of strikes
    to display on the screen. Many brokers allow you to filter the option
    chain to those which are at the money or close to being at the money. tradeMONSTER takes that concept and makes
    it more flexible by letting you center the option chain around any particular strike. This defaults to the current security price,
    but can be changed. This is really nice & helpful for trading
    options that are well in or out of the money. Immediately below the ticker symbol and above
    the name of the security, note the graphic which is currently showing calls and puts. Clicking on that allows us to select from
    a grid of spread types which will change the option chain display. For our buy-write, we’re going to select “Covereds”. Selecting that spread type will then display
    “Covered Calls” and “Protective Puts” with the bid & ask price for the combination of
    the stock and the option. Clicking on the plus sign next to one of the
    options displays a more complete quote along with a nice risk profile chart and risk metrics
    which by default shows some of the option greeks. Starting on the right-side of the display,
    there is a selection to change the risk metrics display of the greeks to “English”. Changing from “greeks” to “English” results
    in a very nice interpretation for newer option traders who aren’t immediately familiar with
    the meaning of all the option greeks. If you hover your mouse above the risk profile
    chart in the middle, a very nice call-out appears which shows you the theoretical price
    as well as profit & loss for the point on the chart where you’re currently pointing
    your mouse. When you’ve found the particular covered call
    that you want to trade, click on the bid or ask price for that particular covered call
    in the option chain. That will cause a small dialog to appear in
    the center of your screen. This dialog then lets you choose to buy or
    sell this covered call, or to select from a number of other options. All things considered, this seems like an
    unnecessary extra step before getting to the order ticket. For example, the other selections on the right
    side allow you to see the quote, chart, or strategy page for the current security, but
    those pages are also accessible using the main navigation at the top. Otherwise it seems that the only purpose is
    to let you now select whether you want to buy or sell this covered call with the nice
    big green & red buttons. Clicking on one of them finally takes you
    to the order ticket. tradeMONSTER certainly has one of the nicest
    order tickets. For starters, their use of the bright green
    & red backgrounds makes it very clear whether we are buying or selling this covered call,
    which leg is being bought, and which leg is being sold. There is also a small risk profile chart to
    visually help us make sure we’re doing what we intended to do. Clicking on the “Buy Action” will change to
    selling the spread. The quantity selection lets you change the
    quantity three ways. You can directly type a quantity, you can
    use the small up & down arrows on the left edge to increment to decrement the quantity,
    or you can use the drop-down selection to pick from common quantities like 1, 5, 10,
    20, and 50. The determination of whether this is a limit
    order, market order, or stop loss order is made with the drop-down selection which here
    defaults to “Limit”. The order price can be entered in three ways,
    much like the quantity, either by typing a price directly, using the up & down arrows
    on the left edge to adjust the price in small increments, or by using the drop-down selection
    on the right edge to select from a list of prices. tradeMONSTER also provides a very nice graphic
    which shows the current order price in relation to the market bid and the offer for the order. In this image, the limit price is just above
    the market offer so a small red indicator is shown off the right edge of the graphic. We have one very small enhancement that we’d
    like to see to the graphic which is the label the mid-market price. tradeMONSTER does have a tick mark in the
    middle so we can see where we are relative to the mid-market price, but it would be nice
    to see it explicitly labeled. Particularly when the spreads are wide, it
    would save time to explicitly see the mid-market price in order to determine what price to
    set on the order. tradeMONSTER’s time in force selection is
    extraordinarily nice in that it allows you to specify a “good ’til canceled” order with
    a specific date. This is a unique and valuable feature to let
    you specify that you want your order to remain open for an arbitrary period of time such
    as 2 days, or until the end of the week, or until some time around expiration, or any
    date that you choose. Many brokers don’t even allow you to specify
    ‘Good ’til Canceled’ orders for spreads like our buy-write, so tradeMONSTER not only provides
    that capability but takes it one step further. The order ticket also has a series of buttons
    along the bottom. The first button says “Save” and pressing
    it presents a dialog with a summary of the saved order. Additionally in the left column of order information
    we can see our newly saved order. This is a great little feature that allows
    us to come back to our system at a later time to send this saved order without having to
    do much more than check the current market prices. Getting back to the buttons on the bottom
    of the order ticket, the next button is to “Analyze” the order. Before we press it, we want to remind you
    that there is already a simple risk profile image on the order ticket. Pressing the “Analyze” button presents a much
    more detailed chart of the risk profile along with specific information about about the
    maximum profit, maximum loss, our break-even point, and the probably of each event. This dialog also lists upcoming, “Events to
    Watch Out For” which can be a life-saver. We wish tradeMONSTER would put that on the
    order ticket itself, but we’re glad to have it so conveniently accessible. Clicking the “Create Order” button in this
    dialog takes us back to the order ticket. Before sending this order, we want to show
    one more of those buttons at the bottom of the order ticket. This time we’re going to click on the “Edit
    Spread” button. The dialog that appears will let us manually
    adjust the individual legs of the order. Here we can change the relative quantities
    of the legs and even add or delete legs, effectively making it something other than the buy-write
    we originally created. This dialog also presents a nice risk profile
    chart to show us the impact of any changes. We really like that tradeMONSTER consistently
    presents the risk profile charts since it’s the most common way for new traders to learn
    about options, and even for advanced traders it’s a great sanity check to keep you from
    moving so quickly that you make a simple mistake. Clicking on the “Create Order” button at the
    bottom of this dialog takes us back to our order ticket. To finally send the order, we just click on
    the order button which will then present us with the confirmation dialog. tradeMONSTER’s confirmation dialog is fine,
    but we’re suprised how plain it is compared to the order ticket and all the functionality
    around the order ticket. For example, we expected the order confirmation
    to include at least a small diagram of the risk profile. Perhaps that’s not here so that it doesn’t
    distract you from reading the numbers and to make sure you paid attention to the risk
    profile on the order ticket itself. We do like the strong use of green and red
    to show whether the order and the legs are being bought or sold, so at this point we’ll
    simply hit the send button to place the order.

    Articles

    Risk Management with Nick Theodorakos | Twitch #3

    September 24, 2019


    [MUSIC PLAYING] Hello, and welcome once again
    to TD Ameritrade on Twitch. I am your co-host Anthony
    Panzeca joined always with– Bill Ruby. How you doing? When I point at you, that
    means you’re supposed to talk. Well typically,
    I try to do that. And I think I did it just
    fine that time as well. Do or do not. There is no try. A, touche. Yoda. Yoda reference, starting strong. It’s the only way
    to start, baby. Yeah. We are going to be
    always streaming every Wednesday from 1:00
    to 2:00 PM central time. We’re going to be
    discussing markets, looking at our positions from last
    week, managing those positions. And always, we’re going to
    have a guest every week. We’re going to be showing
    you trade examples, showing you
    different strategies, showing you how to
    use the platform. All of that fun stuff. So if you ever want to chat
    in, if you have any questions, please feel free to do so. If you look below, where
    I’m pointing– hopefully. I probably got it right
    one of those times. There is a link there to open
    up a paper trading account, so you can follow along
    with us at your will. So let’s have fun and let’s look
    at where the markets are right now. Bill, where are they at? Well, right now, we’ve
    got the Dow up 132. We’re 27,041. Looks like the ES is up 15
    handles right now to 2,993. So we’re having a
    bit of an up day. Nothing crazy, but
    we are on the upside. Yeah. Just off the highs here,
    coming off a little bit. We have crude oil. Crude oil was down
    a little bit too. You looked up some news on that. What happened there? Yeah, Trump was talking about
    removing sanctions with Iran. So that kind of got
    hit in the after– that might have even
    been in the morning. So it was having
    kind of a mellow day, and decided to take a downturn. OK, well, I guess we needed a
    tweet to do something, right? Have some fun with it? Yeah, this is the market
    we’re in, I feel like. Speaking of having some fun,
    we have a few new viewers. Few new– what followers, right? Followers. Not necessarily subscribers. Hopefully viewers as well. Yeah. Well, there are a few watching. OK, who do we have there, Bill? We’ve got IAmTheFlash27,
    Schumer14. Is that Amy Schumer? Is it? It could be. Wow. We’ve got NinjaTrader079. Wait, wait. Oh, and MattRuby34, excuse me. I knew you were going to skip. I didn’t mean to skip. Is this another family remember? What is the? I don’t know. I do have a large family. It could be. My cousin is named Matt. I would guess that it’s Matt. Yeah. Well, Ruby’s like Smith,
    it’s a very common name. It could be anybody. Right. There’s lots of Rubys out there. We don’t necessarily
    know who that is. If there’s enough Rubys,
    I think we could just broadcast to your family. Won’t even need anybody else. Yeah, well we’d have
    about 100 people. That’s it. We’re going to need
    more than that, I think. I like the next one. TheNerdyWhiteBoy. I like that too. I like that. That’s very, very clever. No, I think that’s after
    a Weird Al song, right? I don’t know. (SINGING) White and nerdy. White and nerdy. No? No, don’t do that. No, we’re going to skip that. We got MarkyZB and JayCar8799. I think we saw a DadRuby
    followed last week. Yes, we did. Yes, we did. So two Rubys in the mix today. Yeah. DarkSuperman, just a real
    quick question out of the chat. Is that a simulated account
    that you guys are in? It sure is. Yep, that is. No, it’s all my money. Wow. You’re a lucky man. Let’s pop open and see
    just how Anthony’s doing. Wow, it’s close to a million. Yeah, close to– No, it is a simulated account. It is a simulated account. It’s definitely a
    simulated account. But it kind of mimics
    a real-money account. So it is a little bit special. It’s not quite
    going to be the one that you create with
    the paper money account that you see below. So we do have one that’s
    kind of a little bit special. But the one that you
    do open with the link that you see below is just as
    close to a real-money account as it gets, obviously
    without it being real money. Right. OK. So as promised, every week,
    we are going to have a guest. And this week, we
    are proud to be joined by Nick Theodorakos
    coming at us from our risk management department. Hello, Nick. How are you doing today? I’m awesome. How are you guys doing? We’re good. Thank you very much
    for being here. Yeah, I’m glad to be here. OK. So you traded at
    the CBOE, right? I did. I did. CBOE, and then board of
    trade a little bit too. Oh, nice. What did you trade down there? Mostly index stuff. You guys hit some of the names. So a lot of the ES futures
    against SPX options, against Dow options,
    Russell option. So kind of a big
    basket trade of index stuff, and then hedging all
    that against each other. Oh, nice. Did you trade in the SPX pit? I did. Yeah, I did. Yeah, I was down there
    from like 2001 until– actually, I started at
    really, really sad start date. But I started one week
    before September 11th. Oh, wow. 18 years ago. So it goes back a long way. Yeah. Wow. That’s quite a turbulent time. It was indeed. In a lot of ways. Now, you said that
    you were doing a bunch of different
    things versus each other. Were you managing
    all these positions, or how would that work out? Do you have a few
    different things you’d watch on the screen? Or how would that run usually? Yeah, it’s funny. When we were down there, there
    was much less information. So those of you guys that
    are watching and have done any of the floor tours
    and have been in Chicago, it’s shockingly
    stark on the floor. There’s just not a
    lot of information. And really, when I started,
    we were still on paper sheets. We had pieces of paper
    literally, and nothing else, in terms of computers. There was no real live
    feed like we have here. Paper? What’s that? Yeah right, exactly. So we still carded
    up trades by hand. So it was pretty manual. But it was fun. And basically what we were
    trying to do is find– and we’d always call it edge. We were trying to find edge
    in one index versus another. So you’d get these big
    groups that would come in, and you’d end up seeing
    some trade happen in some pit somewhere. And you’d kind of be trying
    to play that against– So if a big broker
    came in and said, hey, I got to buy SPX puts. Well, my chance to buy
    those somewhere else cheaper is short lived, but maybe
    I could buy NASDAQ puts and kind of play it
    against each other, seeing markets ratchet
    up, volatility ratchet up, and [INAUDIBLE] prices. Yeah. And it was kind of fun. We called it a basket
    trade or an index trade. And so that was when you
    were standing in which pit? The SPX, or for the ES? Yeah, we used to trade– so I was standing in the SPX. We used to trade that
    against the Dow options– so the DJX options. And I got to actually witness
    kind of the electronification of the Dow market. So the Dow options was a
    really fun pit to trade in. There was about 30
    of us or something. And that was in the
    corner of the OEX, right? That one corner there. Yeah, right. There was guy. There was one guy. His name was Dave. Full disclosure, Dave,
    if you’re watching. And he was the futures broker. And he was on a line over to the
    CME where the futures traded. And there was no electronic
    connection between the two. And literally one
    day we walked in, and there was a little
    screen up on the wall. And it was the electronic
    quote for the Dow future, the YM future that we have on
    the platform of the Dow Mini. And the markets in the DJX went
    from like $0.50 wide to $0.10 wide within two weeks. We’re like, this product’s dead. There’s nothing else to trade. It was amazing to see literally
    just the width of that spread get sucked out of it because
    of the electronic markets. We all get to benefit
    from that live now, right? Yeah. We get to see how tight NBBO
    is across the country and all these earnings. But to see that–
    to be standing there and basically see that
    happen in real time, disheartening at the time. But pretty cool the
    way things have gone. And DRKASuperman has a
    pretty interesting question. Says, look like taller guy. Did your height help
    in the pits at all? That’s a good
    question, actually. That is it is better question. It’s a little insightful there. Yeah. Well, we were joking
    before the show, they had to adjust
    cameras and microphones. Yeah, we did. We were going to have
    you sit on the floor. As guest three, I hold the
    record as tallest guest, which is great. It’s funny you ask
    that, because there was a lot of people
    that were hired because of like athletic prowess. Some firms would hire
    ex-basketball– college basketball players
    with a finance degree to go stand and
    take up more space. So it did help, honestly. And I was lucky. When we rearranged
    the Dow pit that I was in for a couple
    of years, I got to stand right next to a broker. So I was tall, and I got
    to stand right there. So you literally box people out. There was this amazing day when
    we had a new guy in the pit. His name was Ryan. And full disclosure,
    if you’re watching, we’re still good friends. And he was about 5′ 5″. Tiny little sawed off guy with
    kind of a tricky attitude. And he came in one day
    and stood in front of me. He’s like, well, if I
    can’t get around you, I’m going to stand
    in front of you. So there was no assigned spots. Anybody could stand
    wherever they wanted. He stood in front of me. And for two days, I rested my– we’d moved to handhelds–
    and I rested my computer on the back of his head. I’m like, well if you’re
    going to stand here, I’m going to use
    you like a desk. It’s just kind of the
    games that went on. So on the third day, he showed
    up in a football helmet, and brought it. And they’re like, you
    can’t wear that in the pit. You know, it was fun and games. But yeah, being taller
    certainly helped– long arms. The futures side of that
    trade helped a lot, honestly, being tall, because that
    guy was across the pit. And physically, it mattered. They kind of saw you first. I remember them hiring a lot
    of guys with like a presence. And not only a
    physical presence, but just to have a presence
    when you walk into a room, and not be afraid
    to open your mouth. And they really
    did look for that. And it was less of– I didn’t get my college
    degree till later on in life. But when I was a market
    maker at the CBU, I didn’t even have
    one at the time. But I kind of exemplified that
    person that was, I don’t know, outgoing and liked
    to talk a lot. Bombastic. I don’t know. Yeah, whatever. But yeah, that was a big– that was real important. The degree didn’t matter
    much on the floor. There was all walks of life. I stood next to a guy who– I went to a little tiny school
    in upstate New York called St. Bonaventure University. And I thought, this is
    the best place ever. And all 2,000 of us
    are going to love it. And the guy next
    to me went to MIT. And he was this amazing
    mechanical engineer, the nicest guy. He couldn’t trade his
    way out of a paper bag. So funny. You just kind of have
    to have a feel for it. All the smarts and
    degrees don’t really matter in that environment. Just a different world. There’s a lot of
    technical stuff, but it is kind of an art form. Yeah, it is. And especially around
    that time, in ’98 and ’99. I mean, there was
    the tech bubble and everything was
    just exploding. So there was so much
    opportunity down there. I mean, I started out as a
    runner when I was like 20. And I was a trader
    within like seven months. And I was like, what
    am I even doing here? Did this really just happen? It’s a trial by fire. I know. You know, one thing
    that I thought was interesting that you
    talked about in the SPX pit, and I’ve never heard before,
    is that you were cross-hedging with different indices. Yeah. How did that work? Did you have a
    computer monitor– I’m sorry, a computer model
    that maybe like was like, OK well, I sold x
    amount of SPX calls, and I could hedge with maybe
    like x amount of NASDAQ calls, or maybe NASDAQ futures. How did that work? I mean obviously,
    we can’t get too far into that, because it
    sounds complicated. Yeah. I mean, honestly, the way
    the TOS platform looks now on the Trade tab
    is not dissimilar. And I was kind of
    involved in a firm back then– to remain
    nameless, I guess. But we were building a
    platform to do basically that. So if you think,
    in TOS, you kind of do your Control-Click
    to build spreads. So you click something,
    you click the bid, then you Control
    and Click the ask. And you can build those spreads. We built kind of one of
    the first versions of that, so you could track and monitor
    a bunch of spread simultaneously and get real-time pricing. So things we totally take for
    granted and get for free in TOS now, we were kind of
    developing back then. And we had a really
    cool kind of mentality where we would show that thing,
    and then we would show it– what is akin now to our
    Analyze tab, the beta weight. So we’d say, if I’ve
    got 1,000 SPX deltas, you can’t go buy or sell an SPX. How many ES features do you
    need to do against that? And then similarly, if you
    were to put on NASDAQ or Dow against that, you’d be able
    to see that correlation. So if you were
    long Dow calls, you wanted to sell less SPX
    calls, because I think it’s a factor of 10 to one. So you’d be able to
    see that difference between your actual deltas,
    and say, look, I just know that I need to sell something. But it was a quick kind
    of reference of how many. And then at the end
    of the day for us, it all came back to ES futures. So I know we don’t
    recommend sort of anything here, how to hedge. But the ES future
    is such a bellwether for the broad market. And it’s open 24 hours a day. So we would view that when
    we were making markets as the ability to
    trade around the clock, even when other
    things were closed. I always go back to
    the Trump election, where the amount of movement
    that happened while he was sleeping was just epic. It was unbelievable. But if you didn’t
    have a futures account or you weren’t watching
    the futures market, you can’t participate in that. So that’s kind of interesting. Yeah. Now, there is something
    that you mentioned earlier. And not a lot of
    people understand it or may have heard of it. But you mentioned that
    everyone’s after edge. So how would you describe edge
    to someone who’s kind of new? Good question. That’s really what you were
    looking for when trading. And you also mentioned that
    when markets tightened, there was not as much. How would you describe that? Yeah, it’s kind
    of funny how when I came to the retail
    side of things, I had to really change
    your mentality, right? Anthony, I know you’re
    in the same boat, right? It was like the bid and the
    ask that we see on the platform here. So if you flip over to the
    Trade tab and put up– yeah, Apple’s perfectly fine. So you see, we don’t have
    the exchanges in there. You don’t have to add it. But you see the 222.5
    calls 1.61 by 1.62. There you go. They’re literally a penny
    or two wide in the letter– the x column. So bid x, ask x. I think everybody probably knows
    this, so shut me up here when– Yeah. But that’s the exchange that
    that quote is present on. So again, taken for granted now. But when you were standing
    on the floor, when you were thinking about where
    those markets were coming from, there was somebody
    that was standing on the AMEX or somebody
    standing on the PCOS back then, when
    that was a thing. And we were standing
    at the CBOE. And so there’s three or
    four exchanges out there. There’s like 13 or 14
    different option venues now where these
    quotes can come from. But what’s happening here is
    you’re seeing the National Best Bid and Offer– the NBBO. So as a retail
    client, in my opinion, we’ve never had it better. We’re a penny wide. So if you want to buy them
    or you want to sell them, it’s kind of a pick them market. If you’re wait two seconds,
    it’s going to be 63 bid. The market’s just oscillating
    so quickly and it’s so tight. So we take for granted that
    those things are just there, and we can buy and sell as
    we choose as a retail client. Our job as market makers
    are to produce those prices. So if you sort of envision this
    market being $1.60 to $1.65, if I were willing
    to make that market, my value is probably
    $1.62 and a half, right? We’re trying to just get
    a little bit of distance between what your value is on
    either side in that distance. Because a market maker’s job is
    to stand there, ready, willing to buy or sell. So you have to
    make a price that’s the equivalent of
    where you’ll make money on either side of the market. So that spread– you’re in
    the middle of the spread, or what we call the
    mid-market here on TOS– is what we think
    our value would be. So we were calculating
    that value down the middle, and then making the
    market around it. So that edge– the
    difference between where I’m willing to buy
    it and where I’m willing to sell it– is kind
    of how I think about what you want to capture to make
    it worthwhile doing any given trade. If you think about it, I
    mean, everything has that. I mean, you go to
    a car dealership, they have a price where they’re
    willing to buy your trade-in, and then they have
    a price that they’re going to sell it at retail. And so they’re basically
    doing the same thing. If you think about it,
    Walmart’s doing it. Everybody really does that. Everybody has a bid-ask spread. It’s what they buy it
    at, what they sell it at, and then there’s a fair
    value market in between. That’s exactly right. And then when everything went
    multiple– like you said, dual listing– it made it very, very tough
    for market makers on the floor to make their money, because
    your profit margins went from basically this to that. Well, it’s a $0.05, $0.10 to
    hedge it, then going down. More competition in
    the market place. That’s really what it does. And you’re paying commissions
    on both sides of it, right? As all of us, market
    maker or otherwise, it’s not some magical
    free land out there. There’s transaction
    costs involved. So in the example I
    was giving, you’re paying to trade your
    futures against that thing. You pay to hedge it with stock. It’s pretty interesting. So it’s funny. You say like, everybody
    has to make money, right? And I think there’s this
    fascinating thing going on– not to switch topics. But you look at
    Uber coming public. You look at Lyft coming public. We’re talking about WeWork
    potentially coming public. It kind of sounds
    like they delayed it because of some SoftBank stuff. But these companies have been
    able to stay private so long now, because there is so much
    money in the private market and private equity. They’ve been able
    to sustain business without being profitable. And it’s a really
    interesting phenomenon. Because they come
    public, and they say, well, now I’m on this exchange. You look at Uber’s stock
    price, and wow, they haven’t done well. And you look, wow, they’re
    making a ton of revenue. But they can’t get those
    costs under control. They the IPOed at 45, and
    they’re trading at 34 now. It’s just really
    interesting to see what the public market expects. And your comment makes
    me think of the fact that they’re not
    turning a profit. And the stock price
    is reflecting that. But interesting. I wonder what
    their earnings are. Let’s go over the
    chart and see what their previous earnings were. Yeah, minus 4.72 a share. That’s kind of rough. Yeah, they had the largest loss. I can’t remember the
    billions of dollars that they lost in
    that prior quarter. What was it, like $2.2
    billion or something they lost in the quarter. So it’s a crazy number. How long can the
    public market sustain that’s the question, right? I don’t know. Right, right. Well, that’s a tough question. I mean, everyone uses it,
    but maybe we’ll see how long. Check back in the markets. We have the Dow up
    133, the NASDAQ up 62, SPX off a little
    bit from the highs. It’s still up to about 13 there. As we always do every
    week, Bill and I like to put in a little
    bit of futures trade. We bet a breakfast
    sandwich on it every week. Last week, you won. Yes, I did. I had to redeem
    myself from week one. I’m a little more
    than bitter about it. Oh, really? Yeah. You know why? Because I feel like that
    was kind of put on me. You’re just like, yeah,
    what did you, go long? Ah yes, you’re a
    victim of circumstance. Yeah, this is how it goes. That’s OK, I’ll take it. I’ll take it. All right, maybe
    we’ll even the score. Well, the score is even. I mean maybe we’ll swing
    it in your direction again, I should say. Oh, thank you. You’re going to throw
    me a bone, Bill? Yeah. I appreciate that. Yeah, exactly. If I lose this one, it’s
    because I’m throwing you a bone. I’m not taking any of
    your charity here, OK? Just keep it to yourself. But let’s take a look
    at the chart here, and then we’ll try to
    see where we’re at, and then we’ll pick a
    side, and we’ll go with it. We’ll put in a trade. So right now, we’re sitting
    in the Micro 2,992.50. I don’t know, pick a side, Bill. I’m down on this one. Damn, so am I. Ah see, you’ve got
    to answer first. You need to get more aggressive. That’s what I get
    for being polite. Yeah, first takes it. Yeah, OK. That’s fine. You’re down as well. Nick, what are you thinking? You know, I’m looking
    at my other screen here, and it’s just shocking to
    me that we’re– all this turbulence and
    turmoil out there, and we’re so close to
    all-time highs, right? Your 3,029 all-time
    high in the Micro here. So if you expand your
    chart out just a touch, we’re so close to that. And there’s just not
    really full resolution on so many of the macro
    geopolitical things that are out there. But the rally back is
    kind of hard to argue. I mean, you see a
    pretty clear pattern. Every time we get
    that sell off December being kind of the
    biggest, we’ve had that pretty steep v-shaped
    rally back to trying to push all-time highs. And we’ve stalled, right? We’ve stalled every time kind
    of as we approach that 2,995 level. Can’t get back above 3,000. But I don’t know. It feels like there’s a little
    bit of stability out there. And if you guys are
    making me pick here, I think I’m probably
    on the long side of this one in the short term. Because I just don’t
    think with the way that the geopolitical
    stuff is playing out, I don’t see kind
    of that reaction before we do the show next week. Now, if you asked
    me 12 months out, I think I have a little bit
    of a different picture here. But I think by next
    week’s show maybe, since I don’t have to be on,
    I can call it either way. All right, fine. Then I’m going to
    go long with Nick. All right. Well yeah, I think that’s fair. I’m going to stick to my guns
    on the down for our short term. I don’t know if it’s fair. You got to go first. You’re like the dealer
    dealing me blackjack. You’ve got an edge. You know what they say, second
    mouse gets the cheese, Anthony. We were talking
    about edge earlier. You have that. You know, the first one
    isn’t always so lucky. So let’s take a look. Let’s pull something in. Do you want to do
    it in the ES or do you want to do it in the– The Micro? Yeah, let’s do the Micro. Well, we’ve been
    doing the Micro. We want to stick with it? Yeah, let’s do a five
    line on the Micro. OK, all right. So we’re going to
    pull up the dome here. Looks like we have
    it all set up. Now let’s expand that. So we’ve got the
    trigger with bracket on, but we’re only going
    one handle there. Let’s make it a little
    bit more than one handle. Right. So what do we want
    to do, like five? I think we’ve been doing five. You want to stick with five? Yeah, let’s stick with five. All right. Oh, boy. Yeah, it’s getting a
    little cut off there. We’re going to go five up. OK, our quantity is
    a little off there. We’re going to change
    that to a five lot. OK, and then we’ll go down five. And then we’ll see
    where we’re at. All right, these should
    be good till canceled. We’ll make those. OK, all right. How does that look
    for you, Bill? That looks good. All right, we’re
    just going to go in. And we were going
    to go on which way? I think we were going long. We were going to go the long? Yeah, OK. We’ll put it on the long. All right, let’s do it. OK. We are in. Going to go back
    to the Monitor tab. Again, this is
    where we’re always going to go to
    monitor our positions, monitor any trades
    that we have, monitor anything we have working. So we have a trigger
    stop five down. And then here’s
    our target five up. So we’re looking for 2,998,
    which I win a breakfast sandwich courtesy of Nick. I will definitely
    share with you. Actually, we’ll make
    him buy two if we win. I’m going smoothies. You guys are out of luck. Only healthy breakfast. Only healthy breakfast. Hey, that’s good. That’s a good move. I know, right? That’s a good move. I could go for a smoothie. Interesting question
    from the chat. DarkSuperman asking,
    what’s the craziest day you guys saw from
    a risk standpoint, where second-to-second you
    didn’t know what to expect? What you think, Nick? I think you actually already
    described one almost, with when Trump won the election. Yeah, I think there’s a
    couple that stand out to me. Not to go back to
    the floor, but– Please do. No, that’s OK. I think that’s good
    for our people. There’s some good internal ones
    and some market making days too. But I think for me, I’d been
    trading for a few months. But my first day in the new
    pit was right before September 11th, when things shut down. And really, it was the
    ultimate kind of confusion. And we actually use that kind
    of in the risk management world now. We look at scenario analysis. So we try to figure out what are
    the kind of crazy things that could happen in the marketplace? These sort of add-on
    effects– you know, a down day, plus
    a tweet comes out and another tweet comes out,
    and then something breaks. And so we try to kind
    of look at those. But that one, with a few days of
    being shut down type scenario, really is a scary
    thing for the markets. Because not only are the
    US markets the deepest and most liquid, but
    they’re always open– the futures. And it’s just such
    a stable thing. So to see a real shutdown
    caused by something like that was really scary. Yeah. I think it was shut down for
    like what, about six days straight? It closed on September 10th. Obviously, it did not open on
    the 11th, which was a Tuesday. Did not open until
    the following Monday. I believe it was the 17th. Yeah. So you have no liquidity
    during that time, and in a product that
    normally trades 24/5, right? The ES trades 24/5. That’s right. And now you have no liquidity. And I guess that itself is
    just going to scare people off. Yeah, exactly right. It really takes a little
    while to build that confidence back up. I would say that would probably
    be the number one for me that I saw as a trader. Yeah. And the other one that stands
    out to me since being here, being in risk management,
    was the February volatility we saw, where some of
    the ETN products kind of became decoupled. And the multiples that
    they were trading on just became unsustainable. And that was a really
    interesting event, just because– Was in all the Barclays? Yeah, the SVXY and
    those vol products were really, really interesting. Yeah, that was crazy. So you saw kind of a derivative
    product almost feeling like it was driving the underlying. So when those products
    have kind of other options built into them– the ETN, the
    notes that have kind of been callable feature–
    kind of get decoupled, I think those are dangerous. I guess it’s a good
    disclaimer out there of like, you really have
    to know if you’re going to get into some of
    these more obscure products kind of what the leverage
    is that’s built into those. Because they can be a
    leveraged product, and then have options on them. So then you’re talking kind
    of leverage on leverage. And that gets really
    tricky to understand. Really tricky to trade
    when markets get volatile. Yeah. I think Brexit was
    probably another one. Yeah, Brexit and the election
    we’re both pretty crazy. And now we’re back
    to this sort of– I think we all thought no-deal
    Brexit was off the table maybe 12 months ago. Felt like they’d kind of figured
    out how to have a path forward. And now it’s right back. And it feels like we’re
    used to that talk. But it’s crazy. And then the election,
    like I said before, was just wild overnight markets. I don’t know if
    you remember this, but what was interesting
    back after the September 11th attacks, we
    had a lot of times where we thought we
    caught bin Laden, and then the market would rally. Oh yeah, huge rally. And then there’d be
    another terrorist attack, and then it would come down. I remember that just
    being a wild ride, because you just didn’t
    know what to expect. Obviously, you have
    geopolitical issues going on, and you just had no idea
    what to expect, up or down. That was an interesting time. Yeah, it really was. Wild times. Well, I think we got to
    get out of this position from last week. Looks like a loser. Yeah, that one went
    all the way against us. OK. Well, let’s minimize this. Let’s get out of this guy. I think that we should
    just call that one quits. And let’s just get out. OK, so I don’t think we can. We have no value there. We’ve got no market there. Yeah. So there’s nothing
    you can really do. I mean, yeah. It’s a long put spread. It will likely
    roll off worthless. And if it doesn’t, that’s
    even better for us. But we would have
    to manage it to deal with exercise or assignment. So we’re 22 points out of the
    money with two days to go. Yeah, it’s not looking good. Whose idea was this? I would say Bill, but that’s
    just me playing the blame game, really. Yeah, I think it was me. But I think at that point, we
    were looking for a long put spread, to be fair. But yeah, I think
    this was my idea. I got another interesting
    question from the chat. DarkSuperman, our
    number one follower. Is that a Buffalo Bills cup? Yeah. Now, you’re originally
    from Chicago, right? I’m not. You are not. I’m Originally from outside
    of Buffalo, New York. Oh, that makes sense. The only way to be a Bills fan
    is to be born into it, I think. Well no, I have a friend
    who’s actually from Chicago. Big Bills fan. I think we all know him. Right? He’s from Chicago. He’s from Buffalo too. Then I just don’t know
    what I’m talking about. I know him from–
    yeah, there we go. Got the Bills cup. I don’t know. Can I show that on there? Oh, yeah. You can. That’s fine. It works for me. Possibly. We’ll find out if
    we can’t shortly. Is that fair? If the Bills start
    following us, I’ll be happy. There you go. Awesome. What do you think of
    their chances this year? You know, lots of high
    hopes as always this time of the year, before
    we’re statistically eliminated from the
    playoffs like in week four. So high hopes. Well, I’m a Bears fan,
    so I know how that feels. It can be a roller
    coaster of emotions. And at least you squeaked
    one out last week. We did, we did. We allowed the third most
    points in the league. I think the Bears
    were first in that. I’m a Bears fan too. But the defenses look great. Yeah. Well hopefully we
    score some points. We’ve got that in common. We’ve got that in common. Well, as long as we’re
    looking at Apple, there’s been some
    news in Apple lately. Nick, we were talking
    about it earlier. Why don’t you tell
    us about that. What’s been going on there? Yeah. Well, I mean, I think
    it’s an interesting trade. You guys are betting
    against Apple the week before an announcement. That’s why I asked. Not that I’m unbiased in
    any way, but typically– Well, we should have
    had you on last week. Typically, going into
    the announcement, they’re kind of flat to up. And then typically when
    they announce something, they tend to rally a bit. We kind of look at those
    long-term trends and stats just to see what clients
    are taking positions in and how we can be
    out in front of that, if there is any kind
    of risk out there. And they tend to rally after
    they announce some new product. And I think it was
    pretty well telegraphed that the announcement
    was yesterday. Yeah. To me, it was a really
    interesting announcement from yesterday kind of. I guess noon our
    time they came on. And they always end
    up talking iPhones. But it was not the
    highlight, to me, of their announcement yesterday. And it’s really
    the first time I’ve seen them really push the
    shift towards a services model. And they’re really becoming
    a subscription company, and much less about hardware. And that’s not that’s
    not outright true, right? We’re all still going to
    have watch, iPad, iPhone. There’s a lot of
    devices out there that they used to facilitate. But that device
    is their platform. So we have TOS that
    everybody’s looking at here, that is the
    platform that allows us to deliver all this content. Their platform is becoming
    the iPhone and the iPad, and to a lesser extent
    the watch and the Mac. But they have that ecosystem. And I think what really
    surprised people and why you see the stock up 3%-plus in two
    days was the pricing that they announced. So think back to Netflix
    going on a decade ago, and they came out, and
    they were $7.99 a month. That everybody said, oh my
    lord, that’s impossible, right? Cable costs– Subscription model. My cable bill is $200 a month. How can they do this? And it was such
    value for the price. And Apple kind of put this
    off long enough not only to get a bunch of
    content pre-built and get some big names
    in there, but that came out at less
    than $5– they were $4.99 for basically every
    service they announced. So to come out in a $5 price
    point, when everybody else has upped their price,
    I think is showing that they’re going to
    use this as a loss leader to say, hey, get on our
    platform, stay on our platform. And the other thing that was
    to me interesting news-wise, you get a year free– now, it’s not much
    revenue, right? But it’s $5 a month for them. You get a year free if
    you buy a new phone. So they’re trying
    to do everything they can to get devices
    in people’s hands, and then push services through. Is the service just for gaming? Is that what it is? Oh, chicagotrading
    just followed us. Hi, chicagotrading. chicagotrading, welcome. Welcome, welcome. We got more followers. Maybe more Bills fans out there. Or maybe just more
    Bill Ruby fans. It could be that too. Is that a cousin? Is that an aunt? There is about 14 of them. I don’t know, chicagotrading,
    that’s a little incognito. She’s being cryptic there. Awesome. But no, is their platform–
    is it all just arcade, or what is it? No, it’s a lot. They announced their
    streaming video service. So think Netflix-like. I think they announced
    about eight names. But they kind of blew up. I’m one of those nerds
    that watch the keynote. And they blew up and had
    maybe 25 shows or something like that kind of called up
    behind them, from kid shows to sitcoms. So I think it’s going to
    be interesting to see. What is definitely interesting– I use the term loss leader– that we know that they’ve
    sunk billions of dollars already into this. They’ve committed a billion. They’ve upped that
    number to $6 billion over the next couple of years. That’s a lot of money
    to produce content. And I think you have to ask,
    should they build it or buy it? And right now, they’re
    building and they’re doing it all their own way. But at $5 a month, you need
    an awful lot of subscribers to make that turn the corner. So when they announced
    Arcade, that was $4.99. Everything thought, OK, well
    you’re not getting a lot. But when they announced
    the subscription TV model– the Apple TV Plus for $4.99– I think that kind
    of wowed people. So to me, that was the
    surprise of the event. Well, they certainly
    do have the visibility to be able to get everyone
    involved, hopefully. We’ll see. Well, and I think you just
    put yourself in their shoes and say OK, I get a year
    free of all this stuff if I buy a new phone. So I buy a new phone. Are you going to shut off
    your service for $5 a month? Like, do you really care? I mean, that sounds terrible. I mean, everybody’s
    on a budget and cares. But it’s not big enough. It’s not $20 a month,
    where you’re like, OK, I’m going to cancel it. Even if you sort of use
    it, it’s interesting. And I also think it’s
    interesting they’re pushing that out right in
    front of the Disney time frame, right? Because we’ve heard the
    Disney service is coming, but I think timing is
    interesting on this one, as well as price. OK, well if we were to
    make a trade here, right? So obviously a lot of good
    news coming out of Apple. And then you’re also looking
    at this from a perspective too, like how much more can
    this thing really go up? Right now what do we have, about
    $1.1 trillion valuation-ish, somewhere around there? So someone that is a
    fundamentals trader might look at that and say,
    well, what is it going to be, a $2 trillion company? I mean, is that even possible? Do you go long? If you’re an Apple trader,
    do you go long here? Do you go short here? I mean, what do you do? Well, I think we’re in the
    business of talking risks and positioning, and
    not so much like, hey, go buy this stock right now. So I think this is a
    tricky one in a few ways. And I’ll talk out of both
    sides of my mouth for a second, and then we can go
    from there, I guess. And it depends on what
    you guys want to put on. For sure. But we’re about $12 off
    all-time highs from back in– I guess that was in early
    October that we hit that. So before the sell off
    of basically everything. And you see that
    really steep decline. I’m sure everybody watching
    is familiar with what happened in the markets then. And we saw kind of from
    October to December this ratcheting
    up of fears around not only the interest
    rate increases, but the trade deal with China. And I think Apple is considered
    to be one of the largest impacted companies, because
    the amount of devices they make there. So no surprise, big sell off. The question kind
    of was like, well, how low can this
    thing possibly go? There’s so much
    value in the hardware and the distribution
    model of the platform. Well, if you’re looking at
    going long here, you’re saying, well, A, I missed the
    move in the last two days because they’ve really rallied
    on kind of this announcement. So I think the pop,
    so to speak, is out of this for this
    particular announcement. So that’s one thing. And the next is if you’re
    buying something here with a $12 upside to all-time
    highs, you’re asking yourself, can this break through
    that level of resistance? Is it going to be the most
    valuable it’s ever been in the near term here? And I think the
    answer is, it depends. It depends on what happens
    with the trade war with China. If we see easing there and
    manufacturing becomes easier and the tariffs on some of
    the products that are supposed to come on in December
    don’t, I think there’s a bit of a path up. The other thing you’re betting
    on is their business model. Can they really turn the corner? Think Adobe did this. It was kind of a leader
    in the space, where they went from a
    hard kind of sales model of physical
    software packages to people, to being
    a subscription model. We’ve seen lots of
    companies do it. Apple’s always late to
    these types of things. They let other
    people figure it out, and then they come in and
    kind of try to perfect it. So if you believe they’re
    going to turn that corner, and the device is going to
    be really nicely supplemented by the services, then I
    think there is upside here. If you’re worried that the trade
    war is going to further ratchet up and we’re not going
    to see resolution, or that there’s not going
    to be this sort of– A lot of factors in play. Yeah. That type of stuff
    matters, right? So the other one I
    haven’t mentioned that I think is also factoring
    in here is what does Huawei do? Are we going to
    have ongoing tension and not allow people
    to buy phones? Or are they going to
    be allowed to enter the European and the US markets,
    and really undercut some of the pricing? So there’s a lot
    to consider here. They are very, very close,
    like I said, to all-time highs. Well, now I’m totally confused. I don’t know what to do. Well, I think there’s a lot of
    macro things going on there. And you’re doing to a
    long-term trade as an investor, these are things you have
    to think about for sure. I mean, this is
    all this big dance that you want to be considering. And coming off some big news–
    we’re obviously having a big day– maybe with all that
    uncertainty, maybe someone wouldn’t want to do something
    as long term at this point. I’m not necessarily saying that
    that couldn’t work out too. But maybe we could try and take
    a look at a shorter term chart and see if we’re getting
    any technical signals or something like that. Here’s the 10-day. So we’re at the high,
    obviously, in the last 10 days. It’s going to be the high of
    the last few months, obviously. Yeah, it’s like the
    highest since October. And it’s interesting, right? I mean, if you’re looking
    at a company of this size, you have to take those macro
    considerations into account. I hate to say have to,
    but I think that’s true. There’s just so many– it’s one of the largest
    companies in the world, and it has one of the
    largest distributions. And if the economy really
    slows in Europe, how do you– there’s a whole
    bunch of factors. And I really believe– I’m not just trying
    to talk both sides. I really believe, depending
    on what sort of slant– No, there’s a lot to consider. –you want to take, you can
    talk yourself into either way. In either position. So I guess if I were
    to make a stake here, I would say it feels like– until there is some
    big resolution, I don’t see a reason
    to make all-time highs, whether that be kind of
    global macro or something. I agree. And the product’s out. They didn’t while
    with some new iPhone that has a foldable screen
    or some crazy new technology. The news is out. They’re up. Yeah, fine. But they didn’t pop to the
    upside on the hardware. So I think there’s
    probably not likely to see another upside surprise
    here, unless something happens on the macro side. And I think from a
    sales perspective, we’re not going to know how
    these new products work– either services or phones and
    iPads– until after the holiday shopping season. So I think you’re pointing
    at a short-term trade here, and maybe calling a delta
    neutral makes sense. Because you could see
    this sort of being range bound now that the news is
    out, or after the initial pop. Right. And that’s one of the
    beauty of options. We don’t necessarily have
    to be right really quick, we just have to be
    not wrong essentially. So maybe something is giving
    us a cap to an upside. And I don’t know, maybe
    even a cap to the downside. What do you guys think? Well, sounds like
    a short vertical. Short vertical? Short vertical call. Maybe. I could work with that. Well, you want to go
    a week or two out? Obviously not this Friday,
    because there’s not going to be much premium there. We can go to the 20th,
    which is the monthly. derikideek, right? Yeah, derikideek. New follower. Thank you for joining us, Derik. Thank you for joining us, Derik. Do you want to go
    out to the monthly or do you want to
    go out to the 27th? No, I think this does have
    a lot of macro exposure, just like Nick was saying. I think we might want
    to keep it pretty short term, keep it tight. Not only that, because we
    have the Twitch convention that we are going to be at. So we might not be able
    to get out of that. Yeah, September 27th. Got to manage them, guys. Got to manage them. Yep. Got to be able to
    manage those positions. So we can go look, see what
    the 225, 227 looks like. I’m just going to
    price this out. That’s a $2.50 spread. Most it could ever
    be worth it’s $2.50. We’ll be getting $0.78
    on a credit there. Not too bad. Let’s see where the 22.50– do we want to give
    more breathing room? I don’t know. There’s the 22.50, 25. We’re almost getting
    $0.50 in the dollar there. I think we could give it a
    little more breathing room. What, we’re in September 20th? Yeah. Maybe even go out another week
    to get a little more premium. We just talked about this, Bill. We’re going to be at
    TwitchCon in San Diego, baby. Oh, I see. Well, I see what you meant. We have to revolve our whole
    trading life around Twitch. Yes, you never want to
    manage your position when you’re away from your computer. Right. No, you should always do that. I like being short
    the 225 strike. It’s a psychological
    number, I feel like. So I kind of like
    that for the top side. But no, I’m good either way,
    if you want to go 9 or 16 out. No, I think that’s good, 225. 225 I’m getting a
    little more premium. Yeah, OK. So you want to go to the 27th? Yeah. OK. Do you want to go $5 or $2.50? We’ll get a little more premium
    if we sell the 225, 230. Because the most that spread
    could ever be worth is $5. Right. OK, so let’s price that one out. We’ll look at the 225
    and 230 call spread. Shorting that one, we’d get
    $1.67, versus the 227.50. So we’re going to shrink
    those strikes down. We’re not going to be
    able to make as much, but we won’t lose
    as much either. There’s a $0.94 credit there. And yeah, you’re
    getting– so $2.50 wide, you’re going to $0.94. Versus the 230. I think I’d be pretty
    comfortable with either. But this one is
    about one by three versus how much we’re collecting
    premium versus the max loss. What do you think, Nick? I think that your
    short strike is fairly close for my kind of
    risk appetite– that close out. You want to go higher? So I’d go 27.50, if you’re
    looking at that trade. I think the other thing, if
    you’re watching and thinking about where is this going– in 15 days, I guess it is,
    you could be thinking, hey, we could really test that high. Even if we are kind
    of range bound, we could test that high
    without too much trouble. And you’re talking basically
    five points higher than the 27.50, or 33. So if you’re thinking
    we’re going to get there, you might even be going out to
    the monthly another cycle out– not to throw a wrench in it–
    and looking at maybe the 230s to be sure or 235s. Because short 235 here,
    you’re saying your mental line in the sand is that would
    be a new all-time high. Yeah. That’s what I was
    going to go back to. You mentioned before. So you’re going to have
    to go further out to get any kind of premium there. But that’s a little bit more
    of a line in the sand here, versus halfway
    there could easily be tested, in my
    opinion, just because you can see this sort
    of drifting higher on expectations of holidays
    and things like that. Yeah. And I mean, we’re up $5 today. It’s not unthinkable that
    we could do something like that again. Well, it’s a good point,
    though, to look at the call side on the up days. I tend to kind of be momentum
    trading a little bit like that. Yeah, sure. So if you’re going to put
    on an iron condor in this or pick a stock– if you kind of keep
    on a vol equal basis, so vol doesn’t collapse on the
    upside stuff and when we rally. Better day to sell
    calls is when there’s been that long delta move. Also a good day to buy your
    short puts then, too, right? Yeah, right. Exactly. Those are going to be cheaper. You can buy those guys back. What do you think
    of this spread here? 227, 232. We go to max loss if it
    reaches an all-time high. And that’s kind
    of where we’re at. Yeah, I’m more
    comfortable with that one. No, I totally agree. I think that could be a lot
    better covering our bases. You know, the risk
    guy, he’s probably got a pretty good feel for risk. Yeah, we’re going
    to listen to him. But the smoothies
    are more expensive than the unhealthy
    breakfast sandwiches. I’m on the hook for
    theoretically more here. No, you’re not on the hook. It’s actually us. You’re going to be the
    beneficiary either way. I’ll take it. I’ll take it. All right, so we’re
    looking at the 227. This is expiring in the 27th. So we’re looking at the
    227, 232 call spread. Yeah. Here we’re just going to go
    ahead and analyze that trade. We’re going to throw
    that in the Analyze tab. Oh, I think I have
    something goofy in there. Yeah, you’ve got a
    similar trade in there. We’re going to go ahead
    and do that again. No, we have that
    other spread in there. That’s what that is. Oh, that’s right. That’s OK, I’ll take it out. So we’ll go to the Analyze tab. We’re going to
    analyze that trade. Come right down here. If you ever want to take
    trades out of your Theo, you would just come down
    here, uncheck those boxes. And here’s what we’re looking
    at as far as our short call spread. Well, also go to– you’re
    in Portfolio Beta Weighted down there. Switch that to Single Symbol. Good boy. There you go. Much better. OK. This is our max profit. Obviously on the downside
    below the 227 strike, we’re looking to
    collect $1.23 times 10. That’s a $1,230
    possible profit there. On the upside, we realize
    maximum loss above our long. 232.50, that’s if the
    spread’s worth $5. We lose $3,770 on the upside. Of course, considering we’re
    not thinking in obviously the commissions and all that. Commissions, right. And we’re doing a time lap. There’s two different legs. So you’re likely going to be
    paying a per-option commission. All righty, let’s throw
    that one in there. We’re just going to throw it
    right in at the mid price. Actually, let’s stick to
    the $1.23 that we had. Hopefully it’ll
    rally right into us. $21.95 in commission. Yep, $21.95 for the
    commission there. And we’ve gone ahead and fired
    that one off to the exchange. We’ll let that one kind
    of cook for a little bit. So flip back. Analyze that one one more time. I want to throw two
    other things in there that I think are
    interesting to look at here. You can drag those
    price slices around. Let me make sure
    that gets in there. Oh, there it is. Now it’s going to be in there. Perfect. So you can drag– I’m sure you guys have
    already talked about this. But I always do this. So there’s a lot
    of other scenarios, especially on the
    risk side of things. There’s a lot of other scenarios
    to be aware of if you’re trading spreads. Everybody goes, oh, you can kind
    of just set it and forget it, because my loss is
    capped, my gain is known. And the rigid blue line looks– OK, that’s what
    can happen, right? But that slope down in
    the purple line really is a lot more realistic of what
    is going to happen between now and then. But that slope down is
    really the visualization of if the stock ends up
    in between those strikes. So what happens? Well, you guys decided
    to sell the 227.50 call. So what happens if
    we’re at 228, 229? Well, you’re going to end up– if that’s where expiration
    is and you do nothing as a trader– you’re going to end up having
    short stock in your account. So with the calls, you have the
    obligation to sell the stock. You have nothing
    else in the account. So you’ve got to really watch. It’s not just truly a set
    it and forget it type thing. That is true. You do have to manage this. The other thing I
    like to do is just drag one of those dotted lines. So pick any one of them. You’ve got your
    price slices there. So the vertical kind of orange
    or golden lines represent that. Where we at, Nick? Oh, here? Yeah. You can grab those
    and drag them. Click, hold, and
    drag on the screen. And drag it all the way
    over to the red line furthest to the right. So that’s your break-even price. I’m sure you guys
    talked about that. You got it. But you want to know, right? So again, you’re not
    going to just do nothing. But you’re really saying
    here for what you sold it for, you’re more like 228.50. 228.62 is the number on
    the screen that is where you can go to and break even. So you have a little bit of
    room above your short strike, which is obviously
    the premium you took. Especially be careful, I
    think, if you’re trading that. That’s called pin risk, right? So if we get pinned
    near our short strike– if you’re in an IRA, you
    don’t want to be short stock. You cannot be short stock. You cannot be. So you definitely want to
    be managing that position and closing that out,
    if you’re anywhere in between, or really anywhere
    close to that short strike by expiration. Because something can
    happen in the aftermarket. People still have an
    opportunity– a lot of people don’t know that you
    still have an opportunity to exercise– the
    longs obviously still have an opportunity to
    exercise their launched calls, even after the market is closed. If something happens in the
    aftermarket, you don’t know. It’s a good opportunity
    for me to plug my day job. But we set ranges in
    the risk department for all these stocks. And kind of the ones
    that are most common. So we have this pinners list. And we say, well, how much can– so we look at an account. We say, can the account have– so if you’re on the
    radar, we’re kind of watching behind the scenes. And we’re wanting to make sure
    that there’s not something that could over the weekend happen
    and make people lose lots in their account. So we look and make
    sure that pinners list has some range within it. So even if it’s slightly out
    of the money, we look at it. Depending on the
    stock, I think– Apple, we look at I think it’s
    like $0.50 out of the money that we look at. But then Amazon’s
    going to be what, $10? Yeah, it’s like $10. Exactly. So there’s different ranges
    based on how much the stock we expect to move in a day. Looking at expected price
    ranges and all that. And when we say
    pin, I mean, I just want to be a little
    bit blatantly clear. That means you’re
    floating right around– see, right now we’ve
    got the 2– what was it, the 227.50 call on? 227.50, if it’s floating right
    at 227.50 on the last few minutes of the close, then say
    that that may pin the 227.50 price. That’s right. And really, in Apple, I would
    say if you’re 227 and change– any change, you
    know, 0.01, 0.05– you’re close. Similarly, if you’re
    227.70, you’re pretty close. So you want to make sure
    you’re really aware of that and managing that short strike. Now, derikideek said
    somebody in the chat. He said, is there
    a trade or a move that sticks out in your mind
    that someone took that was incredibly high in risk? Did it work out for the trader? Well, I mean, I would say
    going short calls is probably the riskiest one. I’m not thinking of
    a specific instance. Now, that could be
    pretty high risk. It’s theoretically
    unlimited loss. if a stock goes
    to a million, then you’re losing money
    all the way up. Just being naked
    either way, right? And naked meaning you’re
    just short puts outright or you’re short
    calls outright, you have risk all the way to zero on
    the put side and the call side to infinity. Right. And we’ve been doing
    spreads predominantly. But if you’re doing
    just a naked one, yes, you collect more premium. But you do have that
    significantly increased risk. I love this question, because
    there’s always intentional. You’re not doing this
    and watching and trading if you’re not
    intending to take risk. You’re taking risk by
    definition by trading, right? Anthony knows it. We stood down there. You’re a risk taker. It doesn’t mean
    you’re gung ho going to drive a race car after work. But you’re taking some level of
    risk in every trade you make. And I think what’s
    a little bit scary– and a textbook example, guys. This is the riskiest, right? By definition,
    naked short options is the riskiest
    thing you can put on, because there are theoretically
    unlimited risk to the upside, and the stock or the index
    could go all the way to zero. It’s really the
    only trade where you can become unsecured
    in your account, meaning you can be negative. Yes and no. The sort of example we gave
    here of if the stock ends up in between your strike. So it’s really important
    to kind of think that next level of detail. I don’t want to
    over-complicate it. And one of the reasons we’ve got
    people here in the risk group and on the trade desk is to
    help explain all this stuff. One of the riskiest
    things I see that is outside of the nice
    blatant example you guys gave, people like
    to put on protection. They like to buy options
    that are way out of the money to kind of fool
    themselves into feeling like they’ve got protection. You mean like buying
    little penny puts or calls? Yeah, exactly. You can do in the SPX, but pull
    up Amazon as a great example. There’s so many
    strikes in Amazon. You look, it’s around
    a $2,000 stock. And you look at the
    strikes, the strikes go– yeah, go to a
    little bit further. Yeah, so you’ve
    got two-day options started, it was a
    1,300 strike price. So there’s a ton of
    strikes that you could buy. Well, if you go and sell
    the 1,820 puts right now– or let’s just say you sell
    the 1,815 puts right now, and you go buy the 1,300 puts– I mean, an extreme
    joking example here. you wouldn’t buy those puts. Well, your risk is that
    size of that spread. But especially in a
    portfolio margin account, you’ll get a risk reduction
    by saying, oh, you’re hedged. But you’re hedged so far
    out, you’re fooling yourself. It’s units, really. It’s a technicality, yeah. And we get this
    question all the time. And you guys are talking
    to clients all day long. Well, the market moved way down
    or the market moved way up. My protection didn’t move. And I think that’s the gamma
    side of option trading. So if your protection
    is too far away, you’re not going to get
    that thing kicking in. You’re still going to take– it’s going to mask the
    fact you’re naked short, but it kind of feels– It’s got to be somewhere– That’s right. It’s got to be somewhere within
    the realm of possibly actually happening. That’s right. Well, we’ll check back
    into the markets right now. Where are we at? It’s not going our way. We got the SPX at 2,990.95. So we’re looking
    at maybe getting stopped out at what, 88? Is that where we’re at? 88.25. So we’ll see what happens. Let’s take a look
    at another name. Did you want to look at Valero? Yeah, VLO. There was some news today. And let’s look at crude
    for a quick second. Yeah, we were looking
    at crude, and crude was taking a little dip due
    to some news coming out today. VLO, they’re an energy company. So they’re going
    to be theoretically following crude in some sense. And they’re up today. Maybe they could be feeling
    that hurt a little bit. So we could always
    take a look and see if that follows
    through into something that’s price contingent
    upon those kinds of things. I mean, looking at a chart,
    you’re still up today. T. Boone Pickens just
    passed away at 91. Well, he is a crude magnate. Yeah. Big name. Big name. Funny, we’re talking about
    that, and then it comes up. Well, here’s a very
    short-term chart. That’s our one hour. Let’s go down to a one minute. So this looks like
    it played resistance. So we’re coming up on this area. It’s maybe petering
    out due to some news. I mean, what are some
    ways we could play that? What, on the short
    side, you’re saying? Right, going into short side. Well, when we get buy
    out-of-the-money puts. We could buy put spreads. Yeah, we’ve got a
    short call spread on. So we’ve got some short premium. Maybe we’ll try and do– Want to do a long
    put spread there? A long put spread, yep. How far are you thinking
    you want to go out? Give it some time on this. It looks like we’re at
    30% implied volatility. And that’s a little– could be interpreted as
    being on the cheap side. And we could give it
    maybe a little longer, especially if we’re
    doing a spread to lighten up that price. And the stock is
    doing what today? OK. It’s up $0.57. So it’s up a little bit. Do you feel like it should
    be down relative to crude? Well, I think that the news
    on the day is looking– JP Morgan cut a price target
    to 83 from 96 on Valero today. So I think it’s
    interesting in general that they’re up on the day. You know, the target
    that they gave was still above current price. But it’s a pretty healthy
    cut from 96 to 83. I’m not sure this one’s
    as much of an Iran crude– kind of outright crude play as
    it is more news on sentiment from a rater. Well, we’ve got three minutes. What do you want to do? And then we’ll check
    on our ES trade that is going your way again. Yeah. I mean, maybe we’ll try some
    something like 30 days out, give it a month. And if it starts
    going against us, that gives us time to manage it. We can take a look
    at it next week. If it’s going with it,
    maybe we’ll let it run. If it’s going against
    us, we may have to take it off and
    cut our losses. Yeah, OK. OK, so let’s take a look. We’ve got 82, 82.50. Looking at a chart, do you
    have a price in mind there? A price target. Can you go back to the– go to like a three month. A three month? Yeah. How many do we– Let’s do– A 20 day. Yeah, so 20 day. Wow. That’s quite a run up. It is. Yeah. What are you thinking? I’m thinking around
    like the 77 or 75. Look at this drop here? Do you see this here? Right. Yeah. If you can break it down, that– Might be some support there, or
    possibly at the 80 maybe level. So somewhere between 77 and 80. 80 as well, yeah. So maybe we’ll try
    and start with an 80, and then go down to a 75. Yeah, just go long? Yeah. On the put side, 30 days out. $5 spread. $5 spread. We’re paying $1. So about 1 to 4, with
    a $5 [INAUDIBLE].. Yeah, no, you’re right. So we’ll throw
    that, try that on. Maybe a 10 lot. And go in at the mid? Sounds good. All right, 1.05 credit. Hit it. Let’s do it. I would think, yeah, we’d
    get filled at the mid there. Let’s go back to
    the Analyze tab. We’ll take a look at that. We’ll break it
    down a little bit. Yeah. I got to throw the
    disclaimer out there. I’m sure you know, we’re trading
    this in a simulated account. So mid’s a great– you look at the bid-ask
    spread and go back to the first thing we
    were talking about. I know we’re almost
    short on time here. But mid is a pretty likely– you’re in the game, as they say. It’s pretty likely,
    but we show those kind of real-time quick fills here
    in the simulated account. Don’t expect that. If you’re just
    thinking about trading, it doesn’t happen quite that– Yeah, it will not
    happen on the real side. Yeah, it doesn’t. And you know, likely
    to get filled. But you got to keep
    an eye on that price. Don’t just hit send and
    assume you’re filled. Because in simulation, we kind
    of do everything at the mark. Yeah. I mean, I like it. I mean, a lot people ask
    me, like, what should I do? Should I do the mid? Should I do the ask? Well, I mean, it kind of depends
    on how desperate you are. I mean, if it’s something that
    you’re willing to wait back on, if it’s a long-term trade,
    maybe you’re not so desperate. Goes back to
    tightness of market. And you can play around by
    a penny now, how it works. That’s a great point
    too, liquidity. So when he says
    tightness of market. I mean, if you could drive
    a truck through the market and it’s really wide, and
    you have to give up a lot, you might want to
    start at the mid. It’s like going to– I always use the car
    dealership scenario. Going to the car dealership,
    you negotiate with the guy. You start out a little bit low
    and you kind of test them out, and you see where you’re at. And that’s what going on in
    the midpoint pretty much does. Let’s do one last check
    of the markets here. Where are we at with our trade? OK, now. And it’s rallied a
    little bit there. We’ve got the SPX at up 13. So we’re kind of in between,
    a little bit closer to Bill having that breakfast sandwich. Yeah, this is a cliffhanger. You know the VIX is
    below 15 when you can’t get a $5 move in an hour show. I think that the Valero
    trade is interesting, and it’s the first
    one we all agree on. So you can bet we’re
    wrong on this one. We’re probably
    wrong, that’s right. If Iran sanctions are
    waning and supply is up, it feels like you could
    see a sell off there. But I’m interested to see
    how you guys manage this one. Well, thanks Nick
    for joining us. We really appreciate it. A lot of expertise
    with risk and all that. Really appreciate it. Thank you. Really do appreciate
    you coming on. Don’t forget to
    watch us every week. And that’s Wednesday live,
    1:00 PM to 2:00 PM central. It’s going to be
    www.twitch.tv/tdameritrade. That’s twitch.tv/tdameritrade. Also don’t forget to go to on
    the Education tab, on the TOS platform, tons of
    great material there. Also on the website. And there’s tons of links
    below the video player. And again, you can open up your
    own thinkorswim paper money account. Till next week. Thank you very much, Nick,
    for joining us again. Thank you, Nick. Appreciate it, guys. I’m Anthony Panzeca along with– I’m Bill Ruby. Thanks for watching. So long, guys. Thank you. [MUSIC PLAYING]

    Betfair trading software for an Apple Mac – Bet Angel
    Articles, Blog

    Betfair trading software for an Apple Mac – Bet Angel

    September 11, 2019


    if you want instant access to new videos
    as they’re uploaded then please click on the subscribe button also don’t forget
    to comment on the videos and if you’re interested in learning more about boat
    angel’ visit betangel comm today and download a free trial so if you look
    here I’m trading as you would typically expect and having a poke around but the
    interesting thing about this video is what you’re actually doing is you’re
    watching this on an Apple Mac so I will prove this to you by putting the lid
    down and you can see on their Apple Mac and how are we doing this how are we
    recording and doing our trading on an Apple Mac when when potential is not
    compatible with a Mac well the answer is we’re using a remote desktop to connect
    and we’re using it via a VPS 5 sporting servers and let me talk to you and show
    you a little bit about how to achieve that on rec but it’s perfectly possible
    if you want to trade on a Mac to be able to do it all you need to do you’ve got
    several options to be honest this is the easiest one but there are several ways
    of doing it so let’s have a look so if you want to run bet angel on a Mac one
    option you have is to use boot camp and the boot camp assistance allows you to
    install Microsoft Windows on your Mac so basically you would find boot camp
    assistant and then you would get a copy of Windows and install that on your Mac
    and what will happen is when you start up your Mac you’ll get the choice to use
    it as either a Windows machine or a Mac but you’d have to make that decision and
    then trade off of your Mac in that manner from that point onwards so you
    can’t run Windows on your Mac at exactly the same time you would have to choose
    which way you want to go so that’s not necessarily a nice solution for
    everybody but also you have to buy a copy of Windows as well which you may
    not want to do but boot camp assistant will allow you to configure and
    partition your Mac so it can either be a Mac or a Windows PC so that’s an option
    that you have if you Ron wants to run Windows software like vet angel on a Mac there are other ways of doing it though
    and if you don’t want to install an operating system or dual boot your Mac
    then another option that you do have available is something like VirtualBox
    from Oracle or parallels and what this allows you to do is to actually run a
    new operating system with inside your Mac environment so if you wanted to
    create a new operating system and run that in the background or run it as an
    application then you can do that you may get performance issues when you do this
    though because it won’t run as well as if you run it natively so you don’t have
    to boot it up as a Windows machine you can actually run it in the background as
    a separate task and then you can switch between your Mac and between this
    virtual machine to allow you to run betangel like that again you’ll require
    a Windows license to be able to do this so you will have to purchase Windows
    license in order to run the virtual box or parallels but nonetheless this is a
    different way and a more integrative way of running PC software like a better
    angel on your Mac so that’s another option that you have but the best way to
    connect to Bette angel on a Mac is to use a VPS why would you do that well you
    can see from the screen here that it looks exactly the same as if you were
    using on a PC but you’re obviously using it on a Mac but also you can switch
    backwards and forwards between your Mac applications and whatever you’re doing
    on your Mac and on betangel also you don’t need to pay anything for the
    Windows license we pay that for you on the VPS but also the advantage you’ve
    got is that you can actually use bet angel on any internet-enabled device
    anywhere in the world so that means you can connect to vet angel and use it from
    an iPhone from your Mac from somebody else’s PC anywhere basically that has an
    internet connection that can use from a desktop software and that is most
    devices regardless of whether they’re a Mac PC or whatever and obviously the
    advantage you’ve got here as well as that you can actually
    disconnect from your VPS and let it run automatically for you in the background
    so you don’t need to be connected for it to be running automated tasks for
    example it can do all of this in the background for you even if you’re not
    connected to the remote desktop but if you do have the remote desktop connected
    then it appears on your Mac and looks exactly the same way as if you had it
    running natively on your operating system so a VPS means that you can do
    all of that you don’t have to pay a license the cost of the VPS is separate
    to the software so you do have to buy the VPS and use it but you can install
    whatever Windows software you want on the VPS so if there is other windows
    software that you wanted to use you can use that on the VPS you’re not limited
    to just bet angel it’s any PC software so effectively you can sort of buy a PC
    and use it when you wish but still have all of the benefits of keeping your Mac
    and using your Mac in exactly the way that it was intended so yeah I would
    recommend using a VPS because it’s quick simple you don’t have to install
    anything there’s no technical knowledge particularly required and it looks and
    runs beautifully on here as though you were just using it like a normal PC so
    that’s what I’d recommend is using a PPS if you’re interested in learning more
    about that angel visit betangel comm and download a free trial today

    How I made £2,848.66 with Football Index ?? (2019)
    Articles, Blog

    How I made £2,848.66 with Football Index ?? (2019)

    September 8, 2019


    Hi guys Max here from Betslayer in this
    video I’m going to tell you exactly how I made two thousand eight hundred and
    forty eight pounds and sixty six pence with football index in 2018 Hi guys so on this channel we’re all
    about making a side income through low risk betting strategies and so I’m
    always on the lookout for the next great thing to utilize to make some more
    profits and that’s how I came across a football index so firstly you’ll learn
    everything you need to know about football index and how to get started how
    not to overthink it and how to mitigate basically all risk at least at least for
    the first seven days and firstly like and subscribe to this video I may do
    more on this topic and it will really help me do more videos to do that now. So
    the first thing to note is football index is legit you can check out the
    Trustpilot reviews and see what people are saying it launched in 2015 it’s the
    world’s first football stock market where you can buy sell and trade
    footballers with real money, think of it as a mix between fantasy football and
    the stock market you are betting on the value of that player going up over time
    it’s it’s a mix I would say between fantasy football and betfair. And unlike
    stock market trading where people don’t really have a clue about the stocks and you’re basically guessing many people have great knowledge about
    football that they do not put to use and even just being slightly ahead of the herd
    or having a little bit of knowledge pays big dividends in football index
    especially because getting in early getting in now will mean that you make
    profits anyway because as more people come onto the platform the price of the
    players go up and football index have just signed big advertising deals with
    sky and got big journalists like Guillem Balague from Spain onto the
    platform so it’s only going to get better and better and also the best
    thing about football index is you on a bad day you don’t lose your bet you lose
    a couple of pennies of players value and that’s why it’s a great alternative to
    just normal betting it’s also worth noting football index have
    no control over the price of any player it’s simply due to market demand so our
    strategy with football index is normally to buy no sell high but there’s also
    other ways to know so let’s go straight into it how do you make money so to know
    how to make money we also need to know what affects player’s prices so number
    one just normal fluctuations as mentioned earlier the more in demand the
    player becomes the more his price will increase the fluctuations in players
    prices provide a great opportunity to profit either long term or short term
    you know we want to buy low sell high to maximize our profits and that’s
    why it’s good to get in early because as more people come onto the platform it
    drives the price of the most popular players up so if we get in because
    football index is in its infancy it’s it’s really going to kick on over the
    next couple of years so why could a price go up of a player maybe they want
    to you know leave the club which leads to more media mentions which which
    means more media dividends which we’ll go over next maybe he’s on a great run
    of form and you know has won performance buzz a couple of times again we’ll
    mention that and why could price go down you know maybe lack of form maybe he’s
    been injured suspended maybe he signed a new contract so there will be no
    transfer rumors and media mentioned so media buzz is based mainly on uk-based
    networks and attribute points to players based on the mentioned in articles like
    transfers or articles on young talent it is worth noting that squad players cannot
    get media buzz, now squad players are the lower priced players okay and
    they can’t get media buzz but if their price goes up enough they can get promoted
    into the top 200 players which are eligible for media buzz and and
    everything so it’s worth noting also that dividends from media buzz
    performance buzz they get credited at around midnight of that day’s matches
    they automatically get added here’s some details about how much you can expect to
    make from that and with media buzz that the reason the price of UK players may
    be a little bit higher because they’re mainly uk-based media outlets so there’s
    more media buzz available for the likes of Harry Kane etc also make sure you buy
    your players before 2 p.m. for the next day’s games otherwise you won’t get
    credited so performance buzz monitors the footballing performance and players
    across the top leagues, so Premier League La Liga Bundesliga Serie
    A Ligue One Champions League and Europa League and football index has their own
    scoring matrix which basically will will rank the top players based on if there
    are defender tackles and things like that or scores and assists so it’s also
    worth noting that match days are split into three categories with different
    dividend rates depending on the number of matches taking place
    the table below displays the dividend for each share for both match days and
    non match days and also recently only a couple of weeks ago they’ve added inplay dividend so for the first 30 days of your share is owned you get dividends
    if a player scores assists or keeps a clean sheet etc so that’s a really
    exciting thing and the best thing about football Index it’s really expanding how you can make money and everything like that
    and it’s and it’s really just getting better and better so selling is the main
    way you’re going to make your profits on football index you make dividends you know
    I’ve made lots of dividends but I make most of my money when I sell my players so
    there’s two ways to sell, market sell and instant sell and so football index
    makes money from taking a commission on the total sales so for example with you
    sell 30 pounds worth of Neymar you’ve got a factor in the 2% fee that the
    football index take so the difference between the buying price and the sale
    price is known as the spread and market sell allows you to set a reserve price
    and place shares in a queue and it depends on how them in demand the player
    is so you might be in a queue with 300 people 3,000 and it depends on how
    quickly people going to buy it so if you were to join the queue you could sell
    them at the blue price and if you want an instant sell you to sell them at the
    red price and the difference is the spread so your instant sell allows you
    to immediately cash out your position on player shares for an increased
    percentage of commission so I’m sure you’re wondering what are the
    turquoise lines on the player charts no these represent the highs and lows of a
    player’s price for that day so the bigger the line the bigger the
    volatility maybe it’s a good thing maybe he’s zoomed up because he scored a couple
    of goals or got lots of worthy media attention and it’s up to you to kind of
    interpret this graph and this is a good way to see where the players going so
    how do you know which players to buy I wouldn’t overthink this I think it’s
    similar to fantasy football maybe you want to pick Heung Min Son because
    you think he’s in Forem he’s underpriced and he’s only going to get
    better maybe it’s a new player who’s come into to the team like Holding of Arsenal and
    or maybe you want a long-term strategy and putting somebody like the center
    back for Tottenham you just come in Juan Foyth it depends on your strategy you
    can have a long-term strategy you want to build up media dividends and and
    performance buzz and and sort of bank up a bank on the price of football index in
    the whole going up which it does or you maybe have a short-term strategy and you
    want to just have that seven days risk-free on football index so if you
    click through my link and this really does make it risk-free and really makes
    it this is a really really great deal if you sign up through the link in the
    description and deposit 20 pounds you get 30 pounds extra so that’s a really
    great way to keep on the investment in football index with confidence this is
    only going to be around for the next less than 30 days I believe and all you
    got to do is deposit that 20 pounds or more make sure you buy all your players
    then email Football index and then they will credit you the extra 30 pounds so
    super great also the best way to use football index in my opinion is the
    mobile app you can quickly see which players are trending browse the
    marketplace buy and sell players and check the top media buzz and performance
    buzz players and you can also analyze market performance so football index I’m
    sure can feel slightly overwhelming and confusing at first but if you if you
    check out a footballindex.academy also just don’t overthink and think of
    it like fantasy football and jump straight in, especially the deposit bonus
    you’ll get stuck in in no time and it’s a really fun great way to bet so really
    excited for you guys to check it out and leave a comment below saying which
    football player will be the number one and your first pick on football index
    I’d love to hear it and any questions leave leave a comment and I’ll get back
    to you